Jake Gittes

I initially put Megan Leavey in there then realized (just before the deadline, thankfully) that "multiplier" as we typically use it doesn't apply to ML in that question. It's not over 3x because we don't use the weekend gross as part of the total. If it finishes with 13m we don't divide that by 3.8m, we only divide the post-weekend gross (9.2m). That'd be consistent with all the other movies and the way the question is worded.

Civil War is just that bad.

Pay attention to theater counts when they appear. Some of those 5,000-point questions become no-brainers.

Everybody always forgets Batman '66. Shame on you

Since I can't see SMH's share being bigger than Suicide Squad's, I'd say a 50m OD is almost guaranteed. WOM is good enough to push it to a 120+ OW from there. Worst case scenario tbh.

1. Will Spiderman make more than $40M Opening Day? Yes 2. Will Girls Trip make more than $6M opening day? Yes 3. Will Dunkirk make more than $500M worldwide? No 4. Will the House drop more than 60% on its second weekend? No 5. Will Spiderman make more than $310M by the end of the game? Yes 6. Will Spiderman make more than $115M Opening weekend? Yes 7. Will Valerian outgross Baywatch Domestically? Yes 8. Will Annabelle have an Opening Weekend above $30M? Yes 9. Will Captain Underpants make the final domestic top 15 list? No 10. Will Atomic Blonde open above the Emoji Movie? No 11. Will Wonder Woman make $400M? No 12. Will Planet of the Apes outgross Despicable Me Domestically? No 13. Will the Big Sick make more than $20M Yes 14. Will Baby Driver outgross the Mummy? Yes 15. Will Transformers outgross Cars 3 Domestically? No

Part A: 1. Will Spiderman make more than $100M? 1000 Yes 2. Will Spiderman make more than $125M? 2000 No 3. WIll Spiderman drop more than 15% on Saturday? 3000 No 4. Will Spiderman make more than 75% of the total gross of all films reported on BOM this weekend? 4000 No 5. Will Friday account for at least 40% of Spiderman's weekend gross? 5000 Yes 6. Will Depsicable Me drop more than 50%? 1000 Yes 7. Will Baby Driver drop less than 50%? 2000 Yes 8. Will Cars 3 stay above The House? 3000 Yes 9. Will Wonder Woman increase more than 35% on Saturday? 4000 Yes 10. Will the top 12 films all make more than $1M? 5000 Yes 11. Will The Big Sick's PTA stay above $6,000? 1000 Yes 12. Will Captain Underpants stay above The Hero? 2000 No 13. Will The Book of Henry make less than $75,000 for the whole weekend? 3000 No 14. Will Baywatch stay above Alienl? 4000 Yes 15. Will Guaradians cross $385M by the end of the weekend? 5000 Yes 16. Will All Eyez on me have a PTA above $900? 1000 Yes 17. Will Transformers have a PTA above $2,250? 2000 No 18. Will City of ghosts have a PTA above $5,000? 3000 Yes 19. Will Undercover Grandpa have a PTA above $1,500? 4000 No 20. Will Superpowerless' total Weekend gross be more than 0.5% of Spiderman's Friday gross? 5000 No 21. Will Spiderman's Actuals be Higher than the official final estimates for the weekend on BOM? 1000 Yes 22. Will Wonder Woman's first Deadline weekend estimate be within 500k of the actual total? 2000 Yes 23. Will any film in more than 100 theatres drop more than 80%? 3000 Yes 24. Will the whole weekend total of every film be above $175M? 4000 Yes 25. Will Tom Holland go all Emo and then snap the spine of someone he loves? 5000 No Bonus: 15/25 2000 16/25 3000 17/25 5000 18/25 7000 19/25 10000 20/25 15000 21/25 20,000 22/25 25,000 23/25 33,000 24/25 40,000 25/25 50,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Spiderman make for its 3 day OW? 109.5m 2. What will The House's Saturday gross be? 1.7m 3. What will The Transformers' percentage drop be? 57.8% Part C: There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 3. Baby Driver 5. Transformers 7. The House 10. The Beguiled 12. Pirates 15. Beatriz at Dinner

Hopefully that means Tim Roth (and Everett McGill) showing up is imminent.

I think technical aspects definitely play a big role. The proper mix of practical effects and CGI (just compare LOTR to the Hobbits), the score, knowing how to build up to an epic moment and then shoot it (down to the lighting, color, and angle) and edit it - the combination of all that in the hands of talented people used to be more prominent imo. Movies that still feel big today (MMFR, The Hateful Eight, The Lost City of Z) retain that careful approach no matter their actual budget, but more and more blockbusters seem to be chasing quicker thrills. I do wonder if there are 12-year-old kids today for whom something like Civil War seems as big today as Raimi's Spidey films did to me a decade ago.

It's the same deal with a bunch of those pre-3D, pre-cinematic universe blockbusters. LOTR, Verbinski's Pirates movies, King Kong 2005, historical epics like Master and Commander and Troy. You occasionally get that breathtaking larger-than-life feeling in a blockbuster today (Fury Road springs to mind, Nolan's recent films for whatever faults they have also bring those moments) but on the whole it's become more rare, while blockbusters themselves are flooding the theaters more and more.

1. Mad Men 2. Twin Peaks 3. Monty Python's Flying Circus 4. Community 5. The Thick of It 6. Avatar: The Last Airbender 7. Arrested Development 8. The West Wing 9. Rick and Morty 10. The Twilight Zone (original) 11. I'm Alan Partridge 12. Veep 13. The Late Late Show with Craig Ferguson 14. True Detective 15. Firefly 16. Batman: The Animated Series 17. Spaced 18. The X-Files 19. Kommissar Rex 20. Justified 21. Game of Thrones 22. I Love Lucy 23. Clone High 24. House 25. Downton Abbey

That's gotta take the cake, at least domestically.

Looks like someone has some awesome homework to do

Strictly speaking there's nothing misleading here but I think it coulda been worded with more emphasis on the fact that only one weekend per film is allowed. I quickly took "no longer exclusively opening weekends" and "any weekend in general" to mean that all weekends qualify and I could include GOTG's 2nd weekend in my top 7.

It'd take some awful weekend drops (like 65% in its second weekend, etc.) for SMH to miss 2.5x. July weekdays are the best of the year and will be a big help.

Yeah Godzilla and EOT weren't fudges. WB was clearly doing... something to get Superman Returns to 200m though, because those PTAs it had from mid-August to late September are inexplicable for a normal run. Aug 4–6 14 $2,158,227 -43.0% 1,710 -295 $1,262 $190,176,570 6 Aug 11–13 18 $1,242,461 -42.4% 750 -960 $1,656 $192,594,159 7 Aug 18–20 21 $848,255 -31.7% 383 -367 $2,214 $194,165,746 8 Aug 25–27 21 $780,405 -8.0% 311 -72 $2,509 $195,388,237 9 Sep 1–3 18 $874,141 +12.0% 281 -30 $3,110 $196,576,057 10 Sep 1–4 19 $1,115,228 +42.9% 281 -30 $3,968 $196,817,144 10 Sep 8–10 23 $453,273 -48.1% 241 -40 $1,880 $197,430,626 11 Sep 15–17 24 $386,424 -14.7% 144 -97 $2,683 $198,008,105 12 Sep 22–24 28 $301,373 -22.0% 124 -20 $2,430 $198,447,055 13 Sep 29–Oct 1 22 $403,377 +33.8% 410 +286 $983 $198,935,940 14 Oct 6–8 24 $296,502 -26.5% 388 -22 $764 $199,394,532 15 Oct 13–15 26 $216,430 -27.0% 348 -40 $621 $199,732,905 16 Oct 20–22 34 $173,300 -19.9% 303 -45 $571 $200,006,305 17 Oct 27–29 55 $40,505 -76.6% 41 -262 $987 $200,069,408 18

The legs were great in its second weekend when it dropped just 50%. They got weaker because after that for three weeks in a row it faced Lucy, GOTG and TMNT all of which seriously overperformed. (To several people who say Dawn didn't have competition: What?)

Tele and this thread

TF5 looks like it'll finish in the 130s. So the gap might be close to 40 million.

Between Cars, TF and DM3 my preseason in the summer game is looking a lot better than it three-four weeks ago. I failed Edgar Wright but then who didn't. Now let's go with SM under 300m and Apes over 200m.

Good catch. They're still not on BOM somehow.

Sight unseen I'm actually more interested in the 1971 Beguiled than the Coppola one.

So far it's made 42m against a 40m production budget.

1 N Despicable Me 3 Uni. $75,410,275 - 4,529 - $16,651 $75,410,275 - 1 2 N Baby Driver Sony $21,000,000 - 3,226 - $6,510 $30,029,105 $34 1 3 1 Transformers: The Last Knight Par. $17,000,000 -62.0% 4,132 +63 $4,114 $102,103,351 $217 2 4 2 Wonder Woman WB $16,100,000 -35.4% 3,404 -529 $4,730 $346,644,475 $149 5 5 3 Cars 3 BV $9,524,000 -60.4% 3,576 -680 $2,663 $120,714,099 - 3 6 N The House WB (NL) $9,000,000 - 3,134 - $2,872 $9,000,000 - 1 7 22 The Beguiled (2017) Focus $3,259,740 +1,321.7% 674 +670 $4,836 $3,579,188 - 2 8 5 The Mummy (2017) Uni. $2,785,260 -54.0% 1,760 -1,220 $1,583 $74,502,100 $125 4 9 7 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales BV $2,411,000 -55.3% 1,674 -779 $1,440 $165,466,587 $230 6 10 6 All Eyez on Me LG/S $1,880,000 -67.6% 1,258 -1,213 $1,494 $42,732,463 - 3 11 18 The Big Sick LGF $1,672,200 +296.7% 71 +66 $23,552 $2,228,690 - 2 12 10 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 BV $1,430,000 -52.7% 966 -502 $1,480 $383,273,975 $200 9 13 9 Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie Fox $1,225,000 -71.4% 1,452 -876 $844 $69,370,793 - 5 14 11 Beatriz At Dinner RAtt. $1,119,380 -36.4% 683 +192 $1,639 $4,773,864 - 4 15 21 The Hero Orch. $920,315 +208.9% 401 +320 $2,295 $1,601,662 - 4 16 12 Megan Leavey BST $441,376 -63.7% 433 -538 $1,019 $11,773,794 - 4 17 13 The Book of Henry Focus $270,545 -71.5% 363 -287 $745 $3,870,452 - 3 18 17 Paris Can Wait SPC $269,498 -52.9% 214 -194 $1,259 $4,710,292 - 8 19 20 The Boss Baby Fox $230,000 -30.5% 215 -26 $1,070 $173,540,805 - 14 20 16 Baywatch Par. $225,000 -69.9% 196 -284 $1,148 $57,247,747 $69 6 21 19 Alien: Covenant Fox $175,000 -48.7% 213 -81 $822 $73,656,308 $97 7 22 15 It Comes At Night A24 $161,790 -79.8% 174 -645 $930 $13,547,321 - 4 23 26 The Fate of the Furious Uni. $139,030 -4.1% 144 -15 $965 $225,429,900 $250 12 24 27 The Exception A24 $101,904 -20.4% 48 - $2,123 $393,054 - 5 25 33 Maudie SPC $98,581 +11.1% 32 +4 $3,081 $2,930,841 - 7