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Everything posted by Jake Gittes
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1 N Moana BV $55,523,000 - 3,875 - $14,329 $81,108,000 - 1 2 1 Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them WB $45,100,000 -39.4% 4,144 - $10,883 $156,228,123 $180 2 3 2 Doctor Strange BV $13,369,000 -24.7% 3,008 -686 $4,444 $205,093,475 $165 4 4 N Allied Par. $13,000,000 - 3,160 - $4,114 $18,022,000 $85 1 5 4 Arrival Par. $11,250,000 -7.3% 2,442 +107 $4,607 $62,387,300 $47 3 6 3 Trolls Fox $10,340,000 -40.7% 3,322 -623 $3,113 $135,136,662 $125 4 7 5 Almost Christmas Uni. $7,610,000 +4.9% 1,769 -610 $4,302 $36,688,865 $17 3 8 N Bad Santa 2 BG $6,106,658 - 2,920 - $2,091 $9,031,191 $26 1 9 6 Hacksaw Ridge LGF $5,450,000 -18.3% 2,332 -551 $2,337 $52,248,382 - 4 10 7 The Edge of Seventeen STX $2,960,000 -37.7% 1,945 - $1,522 $10,273,770 $9 2 11 15 Loving Focus $1,691,000 +94.5% 421 +284 $4,017 $4,069,771 - 4 12 N Rules Don't Apply Fox $1,575,000 - 2,382 - $661 $2,175,000 $25 1 13 11 Moonlight (2016) A24 $1,300,000 -12.7% 618 -32 $2,104 $8,624,896 - 6 14 21 Manchester by the Sea RAtt. $1,250,294 +387.4% 48 +44 $26,048 $1,651,933 - 2 15 N Dear Zindagi Relbig. $1,082,894 - 153 - $7,078 $1,502,078 - 1 16 9 The Accountant WB $1,057,000 -51.0% 556 -867 $1,901 $83,240,144 $44 7 17 8 Bleed for This ORF $949,898 -59.9% 1,549 - $613 $4,253,602 $6 2 18 18 Nocturnal Animals Focus $816,000 +65.6% 126 +89 $6,476 $1,669,834 - 2 19 13 Jack Reacher: Never Go Back Par. $370,000 -62.6% 345 -765 $1,072 $57,425,613 $60 6 20 12 Boo! A Madea Halloween LGF $353,000 -69.1% 339 -832 $1,041 $72,858,654 $20 6
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Billy Lynn is like a faint echo of Heaven's Gate in some ways. A director's ambitious follow-up to his multiple Oscars-winning film with a strange but interesting cast is killed by critical reception to such an extent that it barely spends any time in theaters and recoups about 5% of its production budget DOM. Thankfully said budget is $40m instead of $400m, and there's China, and I'm sure the industry will still like Ang Lee.
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Fences - December 16th release, goes wide on Christmas
Jake Gittes replied to Fancyarcher's topic in Box Office Discussion
I'm too lazy to watch the trailer but a director should be able to transcend a "theatrical" feel. If Glengarry Glen Ross can feel like cinema every step of the way there's no reason this shouldn't. -
I don't get Trolls' drop. I just don't. Competition, sure, but Megamind dropped 21% against Tangled (24% on Thursday), Puss in Boots dropped 30% against three PG-rated openers that combined for $53m (3-day), Wreck-It Ralph dropped 10% against two PG openers with $46m combined, and Peanuts (which had shit legs overall) dropped 26% against TGD. Trolls is collapsing as if this was any regular weekend.
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The Martian wasn't a surprising hit. If I remember right it had a Toronto premiere and immediately got strong enough reviews to be considered a part of the race.
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Winter Game SOTM 6 - Choose 1 from each group
Jake Gittes replied to chasmmi's topic in Chasmmi's Infamous Box Office Game
Pot A: Moana Gross Pot B: Underworld OW Pot C: (bigger drop is the winner) Fifty Shades 2nd Weekend Drop Pot D: Why Him Total Gross Pot E: Passengers Worldwide Gross Pot F: (Win or lose doesn't matter, just number of noms) La La Land Oscar Nominations -
1. Will Moana open to more than $55m? Yes 2. Will Moana open to more than $65m? 3000 No 3. Will Moana open to more than $75m? No 4. Will Allied open to more than $12m? Yes 5. Will Allied open to more than $15m? 2000 No 6. Will Bad Santa Open to more than $12.5M? No 7. Will Bad Santa open to more than $15M? No 8. Will Rules don't apply open to less than $5M? 2000 Yes 9. Will Rules don't apply open to less than $3M? Yes 10. Will the four biggest new Openers combine to more than $100M? No 11. Will the four biggest new Openers have a combined total gross of more than $140M by the end of Sunday? No 12. Will Lion have a PTA above $20,000? Yes 13. Will at least 2 films in the top 10, increase by more than 10%? 3000 No 14. Will Trolls remain in the top 5? Yes 15. Will Dr. Strange cross $200m by the end of the weekend? Yes 16. Will fantastic Beasts drop less than 47.5%? 2000 Yes 17. Will Hacksaw Ridge stay in the top 8? Yes 18. Will Inferno have a weekend below $200k? 3000 Yes 19. Will Boo stay above Jack Reacher? No 20. Will the 4D showing of Moana give us the chance to smell what Maoi is cooking? Yes Bonus: 14/20 2000 15/20 3000 16/20 5000 17/20 7000 18/20 10000 19/20 14000 20/20 20000 Part 2: Closest predictor wins 5000 points (Added bonus: If prediction is within 10% win 6000; 5% 7000; 2.5% 9000; 1% 12000) 1. Predict Moana's total gross at end of Sunday 87.986 2. Predict The accountant's percentage change (If direction is not stated, I will assume the prediction is for it to drop not increase) -34.277% 3. What will be the difference between Bad Santa's Friday gross and Almost Christmas' 3 day gross? 2.422 Part 3: Predict the films that place in the following positions: 3. Doctor Strange 5. Allied 8. Hacksaw Ridge 10. The Edge of Seventeen 12. Loving 16. Manchester By The Sea
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If Moana follows Frozen's drops and increases adjusted for bigger previews it gets 63m 3-day and 89m 5-day. Using Tangled as a comparison from there on out it looks good for 250m DOM. Even that's still not locked cause it might be more frontloaded and/or suffer more from the late December competition. I think 230-270m is a good range right now, it'd have to behave abnormally to land outside that. And I'm guessing around 700m WW.