I can see it pulling an Amour. Even though the director is the opposite of Haneke in terms of where he is in his career, the movie is by all accounts extremely impressive and the Holocaust theme will help.
Right now I have DOR, McCarthy, Miller and Haynes as my top 4 and the #5 spot is between Inarritu, Nemes, Spielberg and maybe Boyle, but like I said on the last page, who the hell knows really. I still remember how WTF this category ended up being three years ago.