Jake Gittes

2008 is one of the weakest movie years so far this century. Especially if you don't count films that first premiered at festivals in 2007.

Who do you think we are, the Academy?

Rooting for 4m Friday/11m+ weekend for Klansman. Focus would be wise to give it a few more hundred theaters next week, and with WOM and Labor Day approaching a $50m total is a possibility. I doubt MI6 will crash like that but I never saw more than 20-21m for the weekend after the theater counts came in.

Precious is grotesque garbage.

It's gotta be toxic over there right now if you're gonna leave a halfway stable gig that showcases your abilities for an uncertain future. He better land on his feet, no one out there is better at smart and accessible writing about literally all kinds of film.

The last of the AV Club is falling apart. First Sean O'Neal left, now Ignatiy Vishnevetsky. Still a good couple of critics left on there but it seems like it's truly about to die.

It won SAG and would've obviously won screenplay without THL in the way. What else do you think would've stood in its way to BP? Precious? (Actually... oh shit.)

Probably all downhill from here.

Whoever gave that second vote, I love you

Given that Avatar wasn't nominated for screenplay, I don't think it was much of a threat to begin with. They recognized it as a technical achievement, and didn't as the all-around best movie of the year, which is entirely sensible. I'm pretty certain Basterds would have won BP anyway if Hurt Locker hadn't been there at all. I'd argue the only real fuck-up re: blockbusters since TDK was not giving Fury Road picture & director. Especially since it was also a politically charged movie in addition to being phenomenally accomplished entertainment. I wonder if it could have gone all the way in the wake of MeToo if it were released last year.

High School Musical 3 will be our #1 now.

1. How many make the Summer Game Domestic top 20? Two 2. How many have an OW above $12M Three 3. How many open in the top 3 spots? Four 4. How many decrease less than 10% (including increases) on their opening Saturday? Five 5. How Many have a second weekend drop less than 52% Four 6. How many are in the top 12 in the final weekend of the Summer Game? Five

1. Will The Meg Open to more than $20M? 1000 Yes 2. Will The Meg Open to more than $28M? 2000 No 3. Will The Meg Open to more than $24M? 3000 Yes 4. Will Slender Man Open to more than $15M? 4000 No 5. Will Slender Man have a better PTA than The Meg? 5000 No 6. Will MI6 Win the weekend? 1000 No 7. Will Blakklansman make more than Dog Days 3 Day? 2000 Yes 8. Will Christopher Robin stay in the top 3? 3000 No 9. Will Teen titans stay above Jurassic World? 4000 Yes 10. Will Ant Man drop more than 34%? 5000 Yes 11. Will Equaliser's PTA stay above $2,500? 1000 No 12. Will Hotel Transylvania drop more than 36%? 2000 No 13. Will Darkest Minds finish over $500k below Incredibles? 3000 Yes 14. Will Mamma Mia finish closer in dollars to Ant Man or Spy Who Dumped Me? 4000 Spy 15. Will Jason Statham do what Liam refused with the wolf and punch the effing shark? 5000 Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will The Meg make for its 3 day? 26.545 2. What will Black Panther's percentage change be? 100%, it's not in the theater counts 3. What will Eighth Grade's PTA be for the Weekend? $1,644 Part 😄 There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 1. The Meg 3. Black Klansman 4. Christopher Robin 6. Mamma Mia 8. The Equalizer 2 11. Dog Days

week 16 no

Yeah I agree with all the points except that the Academy supposedly doesn't nominate popular movies. Look at the actual damn nominees and their grosses. There's a fine balance there. Just cause they didn't nominate your favorite superhero movie of whatever year doesn't mean popular hits aren't represented. Hell in 2012 all except two nominees grossed between 90m and 200m.

With Fallout losing 500 theaters including PLFs. It actually could drop harder than last weekend.

No good presidents of anything these days, it looks like. I would've said relocate the show somewhere else but then I read about the 2028 ABC contract thing. Well, let's see how much damage they can do to themselves in a decade.

The Oscars don't have to become obsolete y'know. Ditch the montages and bits, find a few minutes to emphasize the craft behind the technical nominations in an engaging way, just straight up fucking come to terms with the fact that a) small movies will often comprise the majority of nominees and b) it's not the '80s anymore and the ratings aren't gonna keep rising, but if you put on an engaging, well-paced show that celebrates all kinds of movies and the people behind them, at some point you'll hit on a stable, consistent audience. (Also, don't add like a thousand people every year, and make voters actually watch a variety of movies including the under-the-radar ones that can't afford campaigning, and don't accept votes for winners from people who haven't seen 100% or at least 80% of nominees... but I digress.) Corporate pandering is the opposite of what this whole thing should be about. But if they actually have a president who thinks that all the wrong changes need to be made, welp.

The Great American Cinematic Novel we all deserve.

Also legit dying to know if anything might actually happen with The Other Side of the Wind. Imagine Orson Welles nominated for best director in 2019. Or even just Michel Legrand pulling a Morricone. (I know he's already won but still.)

I would also be surprised if the Barry Jenkins got shut out. I was impressed by the trailer (and I'm a known Moonlight skeptic), I know it's just a trailer but if the movie's as good I'd give it better chances than I would to Roma or Klansman. Lanthimos is also definitely primed to hit all the big categories this time.

Shit looks like an anonymous TV movie. I know we all want female filmmakers to contend and win but come on.

Rejoice all those who said Blockers would pass $60m when answering SOTM 8. As usual with Universal releases, BOM has updated its final gross to be higher than the 59.8m it supposedly closed with back in June. https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=main&id=unirratedcomedy.htm

I've seen a handful of "uneven" reactions, which is par for the course with Spike. But it can be uneven and still good on the whole.