Claudio
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Posts posted by Claudio
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2 minutes ago, NCsoft said:
Oh, sorry, I misunderstood you statement as someone who's inciting another war, my apologies.
It’s okay. I never inciting fan war. I’m just giving my opinion about how people can see different thing from many perspectives therefore we need to respect them and agree to disagree.
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Just now, NCsoft said:
Well, does that have anything to do with TLK making 2B or not? I don't see the purpose of bringing up A2 in this specific case, I'm curious, could you explain?
Nothing. I’m just saying my opinion since you always saying that Avatar 2 would gross more than EG based on your theory about inflation has made Avatar gross to over $3.7B.
You give your opinion to Valonqar theory and I give mine to yours. Sometimes maybe @Valonqar sees another potential $2B grosser while you don’t. Same with me who don’t see Avatar 2 to make over $3B but you do. I respect everyone’s opinion.
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19 minutes ago, NCsoft said:
I think I remember the theory you're talking about, was it yours?
It was quite interesting, so we're supposed to see the new Billion barrier broken in about 6 years from its first broken right? (That held true to LOTR3 and TFA). Does the theory say if we're seeing another 2B dollar film this year? Since it's supposed to come more often now? Right now I don't see TLK making 2B.
I also don’t see Avatar 2 to make over $3B
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11 minutes ago, Inuyaki said:
Some were even below that. Some of those DOM predictions were pretty close to the actual OW
(I think the lowest was $381m)
Tbf it was really hard to predict after AoU, but that were indeed really low predictions 😮
Yeah 😅.
Tbh , I was on the same train as well. Predicted lower than Avengers 2012 but higher than Ultron. Around $490M - low $500M. As an MCU fan , I’m glad all those predictions didn’t happen.
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Hit 300 at 7 PM
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Looking back at those predictions made in 2017 for EG bringing up good memories about how much we thought that MCU has reached its peak in 2012 and it’s all downhill from there , especially after Ultron and CW disappointing performance.
Most people predicted only $400M range dom for EG and 4/5th place WW.
Then 2018 comes.....
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11 minutes ago, Birdo Mandingo said:
If it can come close to matching TFA in Japan, UK, and Germany, can get to 600m in China and 850m in US then ya, 3 bil. If it falls just short on those area I see it ending up with 2.85-2.9
There are a ton of smaller markets I did not look at, like Indonesia for instance, it has made 20m there, but I could not find any numbers for TFA for it, if I assume TFA did there similar to the rest of the region that could be another 30 million gain.
I am not on board with the 3.2 billion predictions, I don't think they are impossible, but it requires EG beating TFA in US which I don't think will happen, but it could. If we see a crazy 180m 2nd weekend in the US I will start considering it.
TFA has $8.9M in Indonesia.
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5 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:
Howard Potts
Ugh...
I was referring to iconic Thanos - Gamora conversation in IW.
You let me down.
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9 minutes ago, poweranimals said:
Oh come on... Everytime I come into this thread the number is lower.
Please don’t come into Wednesday thread tomorrow. In that way , we will have higher number which makes you happy and everyone happy.
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23 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:
Considering that 1 happened. So....
Yes...
what did it cost?
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1 minute ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:
What about $3.3B?
Domestic: $1.100B
China: $700M
OS-China: $1.500B
Chance of happening imo :
1 : 14,000,605
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40 minutes ago, NCsoft said:
Your point noted, however, I'm a part of the Cameron stan, and you're asking me to stay 100% neutral, while MCU fans are not subjected to the same standard? I'm all for discussions comparison box office performances, in fact, I'm sure you don't need me to write an essay again about market expansion, global inflation and how 2.78B in 2009 is different from 2.78B in 2019, so if I downplay endgame's performance, as long as I'm being logical and have things to back me up, I don't see a problem with a healthy discussion. People have been downplaying Avatar's performance for years.
What I have never done, is calling MCU "a total fad and is now found dead in a ditch" or "James Cameron found dead" or "the evil has been defeated", so when he does that to Avatar, I called him out. It's simple, in these forums, Avatar is low class citizen, if Jim gang don't call out bad behavior, no one does it for us.
It's okay to be a Cameron fan. What's not okay is to be an annoying Cameron fan that messing and spamming another thread with nonsenses. The reason why I said that ( my previous post that you replied ) for you is to told you about how can people judge you as an annoying Cameron fanboy cause you clearly didn't know from where that judgement came.
Another thing , I'm not asking you to be neutral. I'm just asking you to called out the other Cameron member who tried to derail the Avengers thread and fill it with nonsense too ( not just one sided ). In that way , you can be viewed as different than those annoying fanboy and you won't be called as an arrogant.
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8 minutes ago, NCsoft said:
This is ridiculous. First of all, I have never thrown around 5B worldwide predictions, that's more IronJimbo's habit, but he probably mostly do it jokingly as well, that's just his personality, and I was one of the first Jim fanboys to say that based on opening Friday and Saturday performances, Endgame surpassing Avatar is legitimately possible, so maybe begin with treating us as different people, which we are, and stop looking at us like some caricatures?
Second, being Chinese myself, and I spend considerable amount of time on the Chinese internet, in fact, back in 2009 I specifically followed Avatar's insane box office run mostly in Chinese online communities and witnessed all the craziness. I think I have a pretty good gauge at online interest in China to make statements like that! I say that $600 M for Avatar 2 is pessimistic in China not based on some delusion, but just personal observation:
1. Huge online interest + unprecedented Maoyan like count for a film without a name and more than 1.5 years from release.
2. The first film was released in early 2010, tripled the previous highest grosser, and made 200 M in a market 5-6 times smaller than it is now. Partly responsible for China's post 2010 market expansion.
3. Cameron's last 3 films all became China's highest grossing film of all time , first with True Lies, then with Titanic (more than double the historical highest grosser), and Avatar (tripled the highest grosser of all time)
Based on these, do you think saying Avatar making $600 M is pessimistic is a "out there" statement? Or do I not have a right to make a statement based on my own judgement without being seen as a cult member? I didn't even say that it's impossible to make $600M, I simply said it's pessimistic.
By the way, saying Avatar could make 1B in China is not delusional. Avatar 2 does not need to triple the previous all time record or more than double it, like Titanic or Avatar did. It just need to more or less by on the same level. If Wolf Warrior 2 can do $850M+ back in 2017, with China's level of market expansion, and now ticket price rising fast, and with Avatar's ratio of 3D/IMAX showings, it is quite possible that it can come under WW2's attendance record (less ticket sold), yet still make almost $1B in 2021 just based on ticket inflation and premium showing ratio, didn't The Wandering earth do a similar thing just earlier this year (box office inflated by higher ticket prices and premium showings), and then Endgame again? and 2021, that's 3.5 more years of market expansion, so more potential moviegoers to begin with, a bigger market.
No offense , but you should treat both sides fairly. You said in Avengers Monday thread to not bring down Avatar performance and mentioning bad thing about it. Yet you're nowhere to be seen when those Jim gang infected the thread with all those Avatar and Avatar 2 nonsenses. They also tried to stir away conversation from EG to those nonsenses. Where are you , brother??? Just reading and enjoying , I guess.
Here's the bottom line :
One person or maybe more insult Avatar --> you warned him
Cameron fanboys messing the thread about Avatar nonsenses --> silent
No wonder some people don't like your behavior cause you exactly sound like a Cameron fanboy playing victim.
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1 hour ago, IceFire9yt said:
I was wondering about Indonesia's relatively subdued increase over IW (24%). Could that just be because there literally wasn't enough theater capacity to increase more than that? Because Monday matching the pre-Endgame OD record is just ridiculous even by Endgame standards, but you might expect that if capacity was really limiting the OW.
Definitely the capacity. Unlike other markets , Indonesia doesn't add many theaters too often. I don't have any data but just guessing maybe 2-5 theaters being added every year. Also , Indonesia only has around 2,000 theaters across the country of 250 million people and most are located in urban area which mean that not just the OW that's limited but also the full box office potential.
Previous OW record holder , IW already played at very nearly max capacity ( not much room to grow , really ). That EG 24% jump mostly caused by 24 hr showing by 1 cinema chain and weird showtimes like 5AM start (first time in forever ) , and 12-2AM start by other major cinema chains.
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Hmmm...
Updated weekend opening for EG in Indonesia : $15.4M
Total After Monday collection : $17.6M
Which means : $2.2M Monday
Previous record opening day before EG : CM with $2.2M on Wednesday before holiday.
So yeah , EG made as much as CM first day which itself was a record opening day on a freaking non holiday Monday and on its sixth day of release.
My country doesn’t disappoint, after all..
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3 minutes ago, TServo2049 said:
This Cameron stans vs. everyone else feuding is just dumb IMO. I get it. They don’t want an original work from a singular visionary mad genius filmmaker that nobody thought could ever succeed to get taken down by a studio-manufactured franchise sequel engineered to get the maximum amount of money out of the masses. Well, you know how I see it, as someone who enjoys the MCU, hasn’t seen Avatar but ranks several prior Cameron movies among his all-time favorites? Even if Avatar goes down WW, it will have taken 11 years, 21 prior films and a few BILLION dollars spent up to this point just to get ONE movie that even stands a chance of taking down JAMES FUCKING CAMERON. The man who shattered the worldwide box office record on a scale hitherto undreamt of when Marvel Comics was in the throes of bankruptcy, then turned around did it again when people were still asking each other if Disney was insane for dropping 4 billion dollars on a comic book company.
After Cameron took the crown the first time, Star Wars with its creator at the helm, triumphantly returning after a 16-year wait and with hopes still in the stratosphere, couldn’t unseat him. 9 years later, Cameron was still on top, and the apex of the cinematic success of the most popular hero of the rival comic book company - a character who was this close to being a cinematic laughingstock at the same time Cameron defied odds and turned a seemingly guaranteed disaster into a triumph - couldn’t take Jim out.
After Cameron asserted his claim to the box-office throne by obliterating his own record when everyone else had failed, nobody could even knock him out of the #2 spot. It took another return of Star Wars, now with the might of the same entertainment empire who had bought Marvel behind it (and with people again questioning the wisdom of dropping so much money on an acquisition), and with 32 years of anticipation behind it, to make more than Cameron’s previous record breaker did, 18 years earlier, and even then it only made more than Titanic did before a 15th anniversary re-release that made the kind of money that theatrical re-releases just didn’t make in the age of Blu-Ray, and that no theatrical reissue would ever touch again. And even the revived Star Wars at the height of its success, with a fanbase not yet divided by controversy and doubt, still could not dethrone the King of the World.
This is it. This is the one movie that could have a chance, and despite its franchise now being under the same entertainment juggernaut so powerful it absorbed the studio that helped bring Cameron to the top twice, it still took its own 11-year-long underdog story, which began before their acquisition and with a $500 million loan they weren’t guaranteed to be able to pay back, from a bank that had already gone down in flames before Cameron broke his own record, to get this far. If this is the end, then let it be a glorious end.
Yes , Cameron stans vs everybody else just dumb.
SpoilerBut why did yourself sound like Cameron stan tho..
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30 minutes ago, druv10 said:
It's locked to finish top 9 after Monday OS update.
37.6M DOM
125M OS
1,385.6B WW, ahead of BP and DH2.
Where did you find the OS number?
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1 minute ago, john2000 said:
thats estimate or actual ?
Early estimate. Big movies usually gets that and won't change much from the actual. Actuals will be posted in about 5 hours , I think.
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2 hours ago, Agafin said:
The top 3 mondays in the UK are: TFA's second monday (£6.50m), TFA's first monday (5.83m), Prisoner of Azkaban's first monday, which was also its opening day and a bank holiday (£5.05m).
Endgame can maybe top PoA, but TFA's weekdays are too high.
Listen here my man... Perhaps you don’t aware that this movie broke the previous record opening which is 7-day OW in just 4 days. there would be nothing too high for it.
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24 minutes ago, Walt Disney said:
Spider-Man could end up ruining my "Disney to have the top 4 domestic grossing movies of 2019" club. I think Lion King and Star Wars Episode IX will gross more than Captain Marvel, and I don't see anything from any other studio out-grossing Captain Marvel, so that'll give Disney the top 4. But, if Spider-Man gets a huge bump because of End Game, then it could potentially surpass Captain Marvel, and I may be in trouble.
Even if Spiderman or other film surpasses CM , Disney still have Frozen 2. I think you're underestimating Frozen 2 .
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Is this a thread about Endgame OS or a thread about record list???
Hard to know the differences.
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Lol. This and KJ contest had the same winner. The one with highest prediction.....
What an easy way to pick a winner.
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16 minutes ago, a2k said:
I don't see how AEG falls below 2.6b ww really.
530 OS-China weekend => 1.2b OS-China total including Russia doesn't require much more than 2.2x from current OS-China markets.
1.4b from Dom and China combined (850 + 550) takes it to 2.6b ww. Again not giving very good legs.
It can well do 1.3-1.4b OS-China, 1.5-1.6b Dom+China for 2.8-3.0b ww on the higher side.
Hmmm... $1.5B DOM+China requires like $950M DOM and $550M looks a bit hard. I would say maybe 1.45B DOM + China which is something like $900M DOM and $550M. I do agree about 1.3-1.4B OS tho. It made $530M ( could go up ) this weekend with Russia still left. With 2.4 multiplier brings it to $1.37B + $40M Russia makes it to $1.4B . Still very possible to pass Avatar.
Note : Maybe I’m lowballing DOM tho. Just in case of frontloadedness.
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For EG :
I have some family plans for most of today, so after the final Sunday update in a few hours, I won't be posting anything else until later this evening (around 5/6PM EST). I'll have several charts up then.
I will post some data and an estimate in the meantime, though, since Sunday won't be changing much in the last hour or two and I'll be away most of the day:
Endgame will achieve the biggest opening weekend for a superhero film since Spider-Man 3, and it should clear the ¥1 billion milestone over the weekend frame, becoming the only non-Spider-Man superhero film to do so! I'm going to estimate a debut weekend around ¥1.05 billion ($9.4 million) with 675,000 admissions, and a 3-day total of ¥1.6 billion ($14.3 million) with 1,025,000 admissions. This will be slightly above a 50% increase over Infinity War, for comparison.
However, while this debut is excellent, it did show the natural signs of frontloading that nearly every Marvel/DC films experiences, despite its event status. It dropped almost 10% on Sunday, which is a bit high for a film on this scale. This is especially true in very recent years where Sundays have become stronger, and a lot of films have been enjoying Sunday increases. Also, its Sunday is the day before a national holiday (Showa Day) which typically boosts the day, but it didn't here. You could make an argument* that perhaps some are waiting until the holidays to see it, which could be true, we'll have to wait and see.
*This argument doesn't normally ring true, but it may this time around because the next 8 (EIGHT) days are all holidays, every single one of them, creating the first ever Super Golden Week from April 29th-May 6thand...
And I want to express right now how significant Endgame's debut in Japan really is, because it's going to be viewed as one of its weakest markets this weekend by many, I'm sure, despite it opening 50%+ higher than Infinity War and doubling the debut Marvel's The Avengers.
It's very important to remember that the superhero genre isn't hugely popular in Japan. Out of over 50 Marvel/DC films, only 3 of them have reached blockbuster status (¥5 billion) in the market -- the original Spider-Man trilogy of films. It's a little early, but Endgame will probably get to that milestone when no other superhero film (besides the Spider-Man OT) has come close; none of them even managed to reach ¥4 billion.
So while its debut is going to look "weak" in general, it's only going to be the 7th or 8th biggest debut in just the month of April for example, it's an incredible opening for the superhero genre in the market.
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Avengers: Endgame Wednesday Thread: 25.25M
in Numbers and Data
Posted · Edited by Claudio
Expectation definitely killed Ultron. It’s performance is great tbh ( WW ) dropping just $110M from its predecessor. Sure , we can say it’s very disappointing in dom but still $459 is nothing to cry for.
But the expectation for Ultron was exceptional at the time ( thanks to the growth of WW market ). Many are throwing a record weekend opening like $220 or more and extreme WW finish like $2B for instance . No wonder why many are saying it as the highest grossing disappointment of all time.
But that was not apply to JWFK and TLJ. Both of its predecessor already made a gigantic amount of money in the mature WW market ( not much to grow ). So people are already expecting for the sequel to drop off. they did and just like that.... cause there’s no expectation at all.