zenithtim

So Nikki was predicting these numbers at Friday around 1PM on the West Coast? Right, good luck with the accuracy here.

17M? Too high. It's more like 14M, according to the last estimates from Nikki and Rth.

So Guru's figure is perfectly consistent with the low end of Rth's number. Then the gross would be exactly 2+15=17 million on Wed night + Thursday. Pretty weak IMO. If this number holds, it might not even hit 95M 4-day.

He was referring to the opening day only.

You're right, thanks. But even with supposedly good WOM, we can rule out 300M, right?

An upset for the ages, to quote an executive.

So you would say under 275M? I think a 2.6-2.75 multiplier is likely too.

What multiplier do you think it's going to have from the 4-day OW?On the positive side, it has the Memorial weekend ahead.On the negative side, it will have insane competition.

Hmm, you might be right. If that's the case, it wouldn't be too good for STiD.

It includes the 1.25 figure for midnight only.

So it should do around 100M for the 4-day and around 270-290 domestic gross, based on these numbers?

So between 16-18 without midnights.

Well, viewership is completely irrelevant for its chances of renewal. It is the A18-49 ratings that matter. I can imagine it opening into the 4's and dropping to mid-to-high 2's toward the end of the season, which would be more than enough for a second season.

Good luck with it. When was the last time Rth was wrong?

Hmm, and some people were wondering whether IM3 can hit 70M. It will do or sure now 76M+ for the second sophomore week ever!

IM3 $16.5M DH2 $15.2M

That might be true. How about the 3D prices - do you think they decreased or increased?

Oh, actually I checked it and IM3 had a 45% 3D share, DH2 a 43% 3D share, so almost the same. Still, the difference is so small, and given that there was no inflation in the last couple of years (inflation was actually a bit negative, perhaps), I would say that IM3's attendance is a tad higher, but they are virtually the same.

I could be wrong, but I think that DH2 had a share above 44-45%, so I think IM3 had a smaller share. But maybe you have more knowledge on DH2's 3D share.

I would say IM3 would be above DH2 in attendance because of the smaller 3D share, and because there is basically no inflation or very small one -in terms of the economy or ticket prices) since 2011.

So what do you think, after IM3's opening, do you think that RDJ is the top of the A-list in Hollywood? I mean he has 6 500M+ WW hits in the last 6 years, 8 100M+ DOM in the last 6 years as well, 4 300M+ in the last few years. Yes, I know that in most of them he's playing Tony Stark or Sherlock, but it is pretty clear that he is one of the main reason why Avengers and the whole Marvel Cinematic Universe is having such a HUGE success. And also, if he chooses to return for Iron Man 4/ Avengers 2, he might become the first actor to be paid 100M+ for a single movie. That's impressive considering his situation a few years ago.

You might be right, buy I think it should do 50M+ today without the midnights.

So the OD should be pretty close to 70M, based on this 15.6M figure. It should stay almost flat on Saturday (i.e. approximately 53-54M) and then drop to 41-42M for Sunday. An OW 165M +.

So that means a 39M Thursday overseas. Superb!

http://www.deadline.com/2013/05/iron-man-3-21-5m-in-china-breaks-all-opening-day-records-263-6m-international-total-without-may-day-yet-u-s-canada-165m-180m-debut-expected-this-weekend/ The 21.5 figure is on Deadline too and both article say that the number is confirmed by Disney.