Early 4/29 predicts:
Bad Guys - $16M
Sonic 2 - $10.2M
Fantastic Beasts - $8.1M
Northman - $7.2M
EEAAO - $4.4M
Memory - $3.8M
Unbearable Weight - $3.6M
The Lost City - $3.3M
Father Stu - $2.3M
Morbius - $1.3M
Not bad - so far this movie has shown stronger Saturdays and Sundays in exchange for weaker Fridays so there's no way it misses 5m for the weekend. I think at this rate it gets to $35m before Strange, and whether it hits $50m hinges on that movie surviving (and I think it will).
Single digits would be a DISASTER for Bad Guys, but at this point I'd consider anything over $15m a win. We're a far cry from the heyday of DreamWorks's box office.
If FB3 does make it to a 20m Friday, it's definitely thanks to Good Friday helping it compared to other Thursday multiplier comps. A normal Friday would have done like maybe 2 or 3 million less, and I'm pretty sure Saturday and Sunday will make up for the difference.
Maybe a little more generous legs than my 40/90 prediction to fidget it to triple digits but I'm pretty proud of that predict rn.
It needs to have holds worse than Shazam to get to a 60% drop for Easter. I think $30m is a bit at risk but considering competition from FB (effectively losing its PLF) and the fact that the first film already had a 55% drop, I don't think a high 50s/low 60s drop is THAT bad honestly.
The titles for FB1 and FB2 line up with Days of Future Past and Apocalypse quite nicely. 🧐
I think it'll outdo that, but I'm pretty confident that it doesn't cross $100m. Currently predicting $40m/$90m.
After this ballot, it's time for @The Panda to take things over.
BEST DIRECTOR
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
David Lowery, The Green Knight
Michael Sarnoski, Pig
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
And the BOFFY goes to...
BEST LEADING ACTOR
Nicolas Cage, Pig
Adam Driver, Annette
Benedict Cumbebatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick...boom!
Hidetoshi Nishijima, Drive My Car
Simon Rex, Red Rocket
And the BOFFY goes to...
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Rebecca Ferguson, Dune
Toko Miura, Drive My Car
Ruth Negga, Passing
And the BOFFY goes to...
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Drive My Car; written by Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe
Dune; written by Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, and Eric Roth
The Green Knight; written by David Lowery
The Matrix Resurrections; written by Lana Wachowksi, David Mitchell, and Aleksandar Hemon
The Power of the Dog; written by Jane Campion
West Side Story; written by Tony Kushner
And the BOFFY goes to...
BEST YOUTH PERFORMANCE
Gregory Diaz IV, In the Heights
Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza
Emilia Jones, CODA
Millicent Simmonds, A Quiet Place: Part II
Jacob Tremblay, Luca
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
And the BOFFY goes to...