Ezen Baklattan

Jeez, Women Talking can't catch a break. And to think I was predicting it as a potential WINNER back in January. I'll stick with it for now, but that and Babylon are definitely no higher than #8-9. Shortlists can be taken too far (House of Gucci DOMINATED in BAFTA shortlists last year, after all), but with 10 slots instead of 15, it does make the films there stronger. I digress, here are my current predictions:

The same IM as Smile gets it to $31m. I do think it'll be more frontloaded, but PG-13 horror tends to see bigger jumps on Friday, albeit with weaker Saturdays and Sundays, so I think it could still happen. With a dead January and so far promising WOM, a $100m finish is well within the realm of possibility.

...is there a path to $100m for M3GAN???

Yeah, Elvis is back in my top 10. Also have it in Actor, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, and maybe Sound. I'd even consider an outside chance of Luhrmann taking Chazelle's spot in Director.

It'd be pretty dire if this couldn't get past The Croods/Raya, but I think it's a very real possibility.

It's....really fucking weird that the female characters have more standard CG Disney-ish eyes while the men's eyes are a lot more cartoony. I appreciate that they're trying a different style but it just looks...off.

I stand corrected. But yeah, by my accounts, Wakanda Forever should be able to manage a $40m+ third weekend unless things go seriously wrong, (I have a $195m OW and a second weekend in the low 70s) while even $20m isn't a safe bet for Strange World. Fabelmans should manage $10m+ if all goes well, Devotion I'm not sure about. Who the fuck knows what's happening with Bones and All? I just wanna see it, looks cool, lol. And for what it's worth, it'll be interesting if the Regal secret screening turns out to be The Fabelmans (although it could well be Spirited 🤮). My go for broke guess that nobody's done yet....could it be Glass Onion?

This has gotta be the first time ever that a film in its third week is gonna win Thanksgiving weekend, right?

Kinda surprised She Said isn't on your list. I'm very much unsure of how it'll connect with the industry (even if critics were mostly positive but not THAT positive) but it feels like at least a top 25 contender. (I had that and Triangle of Sadness in my top 10 a few weeks ago, but they're definitely on their way out.)

Also keep in mind that ticket prices for most shows are still balooning (even cheaper options like rush/lottery are quickly approaching $50) and they're usually in much bigger venues with more people. A big reason why touristy mainstays are roughly able to stay afloat but more prestige faire is struggling.

IMO the big kicker will be how The Fabelmans and (to a lesser extent) Babylon perform - they're the only contenders of that adult prestige caliber that seem like they could have potential still. Stuff like She Said and The Whale aren't going to light the box office on fire.

TAR is weird because it's definitely not the kind of film that would have done well even before COVID, but like @Cmasterclay, you could at least get $25m out of it if all went well. Then again, Tammy Faye still won an oscar last year with a worse total than what TAR already made, heh. Till is definitely the one I'm more surprised at. I definitely understand the apprehension at another film focusing on black trauma, but I think between the strong reviews and the more affirming take on the story than people expected, it might have done better. At least it has some time to build that WOM before Black Panther takes every screen. Banshees seems...okay so far? PTA drop is definitely a little worrying but it should probably be less scathed than TAR/Triangle of Sadness. It seems like now is a weird time to release these platform-based films rather than closer to the holidays/January, but oh well.

Hard to argue against that line up, and honestly....it's a year where you could make a case for ANY of them winning. Some are stronger than others, sure, but it feels like a really strong line-up this year.

Alright, guess I'm gonna be the first person on here to put it in my top 10. Babylon The Banshees of Inisherin Everything Everywhere All At Once The Fabelmans Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio She Said Tar Top Gun: Maverick Triangle of Sadness Women Talking Pinocchio may be a crapshoot, but...I think the fact that Netflix doesn't really have a better choice for a contender AND the strong reviews so far could maybe make it happen? All Quiet, maybe, but I don't know if it goes beyond tech categories at this point.

Jessie Buckley, Women Talking Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness Claire Foy, Women Talking Carey Mulligan, She Said I'm feeling bullish on Dolly, so far it seems like the industry seems to really like Triangle of Sadness, and she keeps getting singled out. I could even see a suite where it just takes Screenplay and Supporting Actress nods. Big question marks are if Margot Robbie actually does go supporting instead of lead and if EEAAO remains strong enough to carry Hsu (or in a hot-dog-finger-level-ridiculous world, Curtis) with it. With Actress getting as crowded as it is, I'm not convinced that Universal is gonna keep Williams as lead, especially since, as discussed, her odds of winning shoot up exponentially if here. Either way, imagine a scenario where there aren't really big names and we see a line up like Hsu, De Leon, Condon, Mbedu...okay probably not realistic but I CAN DREAM DAMNIT!!!

If Boxtrolls and Pirates got in with lukewarm praise (especially the latter, the second was better recieved) then I still think it gets in. The Academy LOVES stop motion.

@The Panda can't recieve messages so...

The fact that I'm a furry and even I forgot that movie existed ought to tell you something.

BROS feels like the dying breath of the kind of studio comedies that used to come out in theaters, (that people would now just wait to watch at home) and relied less on star power than giving an up and coming comedian a break out role. Even if Eichner was more of a name similar to Schumer or Nanjiani, it would have struggled. It's still cool to see that Horror as a genre has made it through the lockdown largely unscathed relative to other genres. That preview number doesn't quite lock in $20m, but Paramount hasn't missed a beat yet this year with their wide releases.

At this point, I'll be impressed if Bros makes it to double digits. I didn't do a deep dive but yeah it's well behind Smile. I'd say maybe $8m for Bros and $15m for Smile?

3.1M previews would put it at 9.85M for Friday? I think it gets barely over $20M for the weekend.

Honestly, if EEAAO If EEAAO makes it into Picture and Screenplay, I'd be really surprised if it missed Director. It's a film that rides on style and depends on vivid direction.

I think it'll be kind of backloaded, so those previews could get it to a $6m Friday and high teens weekend. We'll see what happens.

It could definitely happen. Honestly, I'm wondering if it has an outside chance at the People's Choice Award at TIFF.

On one hand I think it's the exact kind of starfucking that used to be the HFPA's bread and butter, but on the other they have shown a bit more restraint these past few years. Idk where GBRE will go (and could maybe even see Banshees get frauded into Comedy/Musical too?) but things could happen there.