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Globe Predictions cause why not? BEST PICTURE (DRAMA) Avatar: The Way of Water Babylon The Fabelmans TAR Women Talking BEST PICTURE (COMEDY/MUSICAL) Bros Everything Everywhere All At Once Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Triangle of Sadness White Noise BEST ACTOR (DRAMA) Austin Butler (Elvis) Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) Brendan Fraser (The Whale) Hugh Jackman (The Son) Harry Styles (My Policeman) BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) Naomi Ackie (I Wanna Dance With Somebody) Jessica Chastain (The Good Nurse) Cate Blanchett (TAR) Olivia Colman (Empire of Light) Margot Robbie (Babylon) BEST ACTOR (COMEDY/MUSICAL) Daniel Craig (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery) Adam Driver (White Noise) Billy Eichner (Bros) Ralph Fiennes (The Menu) Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto) BEST ACTRESS (COMEDY/MUSICAL) Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris) Julia Roberts (Ticket to Paradise) Anya Taylor-Joy (The Menu) Emma Thompson (Good Luck To You, Leo Grande) Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once) BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Paul Dano (The Fabelmans) Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin) Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once) Michael Ward (Empire of Light)* Ben Whishaw (Women Talking) BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Jessie Buckley (Women Talking) Laura Dern (The Son) Claire Foy (Women Talking) Sadie Sink (The Whale) Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) BEST DIRECTOR Damien Chazelle (Babylon) Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once) Todd Field (TAR) Sam Mendes (Empire of Light) Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) BEST SCREENPLAY The Banshees of Inisherin Everything Everywhere All At Once The Fabelmans TAR Women Talking BEST ORIGINAL SCORE Avatar: The Way of Water Empire of Light The Fabelmans Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio Women Talking BEST ORIGINAL SONG "Carolina" (Where The Crawdads Sing) "Hold My Hand" (Top Gun: Maverick) "Keep Rising" (The Woman King) "Top of the World" (Lyle Lyle Crocodile) **Placeholder for a song from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever** BEST INTERNATINOAL FEATURE All Quiet on the Western Front Bardo Broker Decision to Leave Holy Spider BEST ANIMATED FEATURE Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio Marcel the Shell with Shoes On Strange World Turning Red Wendell and Wild

It could ne either the movie or just women talking in general.

Both IT movies and THE NUN dropped on average around 10% on Saturday, so maybe give Barbarian $3.4m-3.5m today? Maybe more considering the smaller numbers. Also even with the C+ Cinemascore, Audience score on RT is 75%.

I'm not ready to be heartbroken at the Oscar snubs of a film starring Cate Blanchett directed by a guy named Todd, that's for sure.

Don't look up anything else before going to see it. It really is one of those movies that's even better the less you know going in.

I'm starting to feel like WOMEN TALKING is comfortably my frontrunner so far. Even beyond the raves at the festivals so far, it's got everything a BP contender really needs to break through, from the social commentary to the probable acting support. TAR feels destined to be the critical darling of the season, but I wouldn't be shocked to see it pull a Carol. The rule of ten nominees may help it big time, though, and it could get a lot of singled out passion. I also have Field in Director. BARDO...could maybe still get cinematography? It's hard to completely write off Inarritu when the Academy clearly adores him. Speaking of Netflix and a beloved Mexican director...this might sound crazy but I wouldn't be shocked if GDT's Pinocchio could end up becoming a contender if reception is really strong. Yes, not even Pixar can really make it here nowadays, but...who knows?

I could see Barbarian having, slightly better legs than typical horror, if only because of the "wait, this is good??" reviews. The 79% audience score is also pretty decent. It also fucking rules and y'all should see it. LET'S MAKE $10M HAPPEN DAMNIT

Yikes, look like Nope got badly hurt by losing its PLF/IMAX screens. At least it'll still clear $100m easily.

I mean....Hereditary pulled off a 3x multiplier with a FRIGGIN D+ CINEMASCORE so I don't think legs are necessarily fubar with next to no direct competition over this next month.

NOPE is definitely a bit of a weird case and IMO the second trailer didn't really do it any favors (and I'm still really excited for it.) They're really taking the mystery box as far as they can with it, but I worry they cracked it open just enough to let some of the steam out. I think the ball's in the court of how good WOM ends up being. I still don't see an opening weekend below mid-to-high 30s but it's gonna need good WOM to go further. I'm super hyped for it (I adored both of Peele's movies so far but I'm not shocked at US's weaker WOM) but I still don't know what to expect from it. It certainly helps that most of August is gonna be dead so there's more room in the market than Us had back in April 2019. I think it easily wins the weekend and Thor drops over 50% again. Tentative final prediction: $39m/$102m.

Remember when the numbers thread of the week got taken over by people posting photoshops of Michael Fassbender's dick? That's what makes me come back. Well....an example of it. 😳

Ah, thought it was in like 400 or something. Good PTA in that case! It's interesting how slow the rollout has been for this, even by pre-pandemic standards, but I figure trying to get to full strength in time for a barren August may really help it out. WOM seems extremely good for it.

How many theaters was Marcel in?

Yeah, it won't be NEARLY as bad a Paper Towns and didn't mean to imply such but there's still definitely gonna be a rush factor here.

I think it'll be a good bit frontloaded (i.e. maybe a 30% drop tomorrow if not higher) but I think it gets to at least $7.5m overall today and makes it to a $15m weekend. Remember when Paper Towns made over half its opening weekend from Friday alone?

Take me down to the Empire City, Where the spirit is mean, And the posts are petty! OH WON'T YOU PLEASE TAKE ME HOME

My local Cinemark is a trip. For the primetime showings on Thursday and Friday, Crawdads is already virtually sold out. Meanwhile, Paws of Fury has yet to sell a single ticket. I think even stuff like Peter Rabbit and Spirit Untamed sold a few at this point in time.

If AMATW and Homecoming couldn't avoid 60% drops with better word of mouth and internal OW holds, I think Thor could end up falling closer to 65%. That number would barely get it over a $50m second weekend. I think the fact that there's no other big tentpoles this sunmer should keep it from falling off too much, but it's also gonna largely depend on when they decide to put it on Disney Plus. (My money says they release it on the D+ Day on 9/8, same day they're releasing Pinocchio) As long as $50m happens this coming weekend it should still make it to a $350m total, IMO.

I feel like the platform release worked in EEAAO's favor so it had time to build word of mouth, which is interesting when the studio's been relatively more bullish about pushing things wide as soon as possible. With Marcrl, it doesn't seem to be hitting that same stride? But even then demand for it always felt kinda limited, sad as it is to say. For what its worth, the PTA holds haven't been terrible. I'm just curious how many theaters it ultimately goes wide in next week.

Nice

I feel like if The Whale makes it out this year and Fraser delivers, he has a BIG narrative to win. Mind the pun. People have been rooting for his redemption and comeback for a while now, and even after this season of Stranger Things, Sadie Sink is riding a high wave too.

Between a shorter runtime, potentially iffy WOM, and 3pm previews, are we looking at the biggest Thursday share of marvel previews ever? If it does below $70m today including previews, that'll get it there. I think it'll have to have a pretty worst case scenario opening to fall below JW3. OTOH I'm starting to wonder if Crawdads, if not the weekend, might be #1 on its opening day. The book is popular enough to have something of a rush factor and seats are selling quite nicely at least in my local area. Unlikely but weirder things have happened. Minions is in shape for a decent hold, it actually had a better Wednesday drop than LIGHTYEAR, lmfao. It looks like theaters around me have completely given up on the later and apparently it lost 1,700 theaters this week? At this point is even $250m WW happening???

At this rate I don't see how Lightyear doesn't finish at #5. With Minions next week I think there's a good chance it doesn't even make it to $150m at the end of the day. Black Phone, OTOH...feels like a huge win for theaters. $30m isn't out of the cards with those previews, and WOM will keep it going without a lot of horror competition until Nope from what I hear. Might even finish in the top 2 this weekend. Pretty solid for Elvis, def gonna be closer to Rocketman than Bohemian Rhapsody but nice to see an adult drama can still make bank.

Elvis seems pretty stronger on Friday than Thursday at my theaters precisely. Even my Dolby show on Friday night is starting to fill up well. Right now I feel pretty confident in a #1 Elvis finished followed by Top Gun.

At this rate Top Gun could be $20m too lol