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kswiston

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Everything posted by kswiston

  1. kswiston
    Isn't Rentrak the source for all of our Overseas numbers (EDIT: At least on Sundays)? Perhaps the Expendables numbers are wrong for the same reason we never have them in the Sunday OS reports. They don't seem to track every distributor releasing the film overseas.
  2. kswiston
    Overseas Total is now $616.4M. WW total is $1.057Bhttp://rentrak.com/section/corporate/press_room/weekly_top_10_charts.html#1
  3. kswiston
    Rentrak updated its Worldwide Box Office page for the weekend:http://rentrak.com/section/corporate/press_room/weekly_top_10_charts.html#1
  4. kswiston
    Here was Fake's post with the 125-150M number for Expendibles 2. He mentions 220M for ASM and 200M for TDKR this week. Then says next week we will see those totals for the films listed. I think it is pretty clear he means A) that those numbers are in Yuan, and B ) they are for next week only.
  5. kswiston
    They were talking about local currency in that post, not USD. You can tell because they mention ASM and TDK doing 200M+ first week.125-150M Yuan would be under $30M USD.
  6. kswiston
    I misread his post and thought he was predicting 1.28B (1280M), which I thought was really high. My mistake though.I still think $730 overseas is very optimistic, but we will see this weekend. If the film opens in China. I was under the impression that it may not following the shooting.
  7. kswiston
    400+700 = $1.1BTo get your $1.28B number it would need $500M domestic and almost $800M overseas (or $550M dom and $730M overseas). I don't see that happening. Unless next week's overseas expansion leads to a massive second weekend worldwide (like $250-300M including the domestic take), I think $1.05-1.1B is a more realistic expectation for now.EDIT: I misread your number (sitting too far from my PC!). You said 1.2B not 1.28B. Sorry about that!Still, I think closer to $1.1B is likely if the film doesn't debut in China.
  8. kswiston
    Could $341M be the weekend Worldwide gross (including 6-day openings)? If it includes last weekend's $51M, that is pretty weak.
  9. kswiston
    I think your drops are on the pessimistic side of things:$532M total$22M this weekend$8M weekdays next week$13M next weekend$5M for the week days after thatTotal of $580M. Also, the movie is not going to drop 45-50% for the rest of its run, even if it does once or twice in the coming weeks.
  10. kswiston
    The math in that BOM seems off though. If the 4th quarter 2009 average ticket price was $7.61, wouldn't that average already include whatever 3D tickets were sold that quarter? So he is taking an already inflated average ticket price, and then inflating it again with a 3D premium. Granted not a ton of movies were playing in 3D during fourth quarter 2009, but Avatar's $300M (largely 3D) gross that quarter would still affect the average a little bit.
  11. kswiston
    I don't know what the case is in the US, but in Ontario 3D ticket mark-up is 25-30% ($3 on a $10-13 ticket depending on where you go). Avatar made 42% more than the Dark Knight. Even if every showing was in 3D (which wasn't the case), I don't see how you can argue that Avatar didn't sell more tickets than TDK.
  12. kswiston
    Yes: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/days/?page=open&p=.htm
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