With Dory at about $30.8m, do you think it can stretch and overtake Monsters University? Having made $0.68m today, I think MU's $33.7m might be plausible?
A few likely reasons:
Brexit Depression affecting EU Countries, such as france
Recent severe flooding
Euro football games
The likelihood is that Dory will have better legs than a typical animation film due to the above reasons calming down over time. So overall, it may still make a decent number in France, just not a huge opening.
So Dory will likely have a bigger opening than previous Pixar films (like inside outs petty 78m Yuan opening)? And how big a drop are you expecting for WC? Has WOM been good over past couple of days?
Personally I think it can still make another $10m - $20m DOM and maybe another $10m - $20m OS, meaning it would be at $915m - $935m without Japan and South Korea. So with maybe $50M - $70M in Japan and $20M in Korea, It could just trickle over. At the lowest of my estimates, it'll make $985M finish, optimistically though, maybe $1.025B finish.
I'd say it very much depends on the Japanese take at the moment, so probably a 50/50 chance.
Fresh from Mojo's site:
The Jungle Book (2016)
BV
$4,247,000
-40.1%
1,990
-533
$2,134
$347,469,661
Domestic Weekend estimates 3-5 June 2016
International figures of $547,600,000 makes TJB ever closer to $900M WW!