Stewart

With 2 hours and 37 minutes to go, Maoyan Live says midnights have hit 50M (+88.2%)

Please correct if I'm wrong, but I think I read Maoyan as this: [ 0 days+ 3 hours] The Fate of the Furious Midnight: 48.66m (+83.1%) - 16,590 shows Fri: 142.96m (+37.5%) - 147,082 shows Sat: 68.41m (+31.3%) - 125,310 shows Sun: 25.55m - 105,894 shows

Who ever said this site was supposed to be professional. It is a special event for this weekend only where @Tele Came Back is testing some word filters and is having a bit of fun. Lighten up dude!

I believe they mean TFA's Domestic OW, which is $247m inc. $57m previews, hence their $190m.

Funny thing is, as BatB is predicted to drop softer than BB, there is a fair chance that BatB is actually #2 on it's FIFTH weekend as well! It'll die after that though as 21st there's 5 WIDE releases.

Do you think Chinese audiences will be influenced by the "Last" element in the title, similarly to Resident Evil: Final Chapter?

@Olive Just had a thought, what is the translation for TF5? As the English title is Transformers: The Last Knight, I was wondering whether transformers could be further inflated by the word "last" in the title, similarly to the effect you described for Resident Evil this year.

Corrected your little mishap Also I made a post about this yesterday March 2017 and the prospects of July 2017. #ShamelessSelfPromotion

I have seen others predicting about that level for it, although I suppose the tough competition this year could limit its legs. I did factor in the first day in june by taking off the $50M I estimated for OD.

After writing a long-ass post on Reddit about how I believe July 2017 can become the largest ever, I thought I'd copy it here, to keep all you guys' opinions. But first: March 2017 All information below concerns calendar grosses, not adjusted for inflation, as per BoxOfficeMojo As you can see from BOM, March 2017 grossed a whopping $1,166,562,431 (EDIT: actuals now in) $1,166,491,996 (inc. estimate for Friday 31st). This is not only the largest March ever (beating March 2016's $948,696,754 by over $200M) but it is also the 13th largest month ever. Below you can see the table for the top 15 months: Rank Month Gross 1 July, 2011 $1,395,075,899 2 July, 2016 $1,371,410,333 3 July, 2013 $1,370,748,402 4 July, 2012 $1,320,887,484 5 July, 2010 $1,319,401,012 6 December, 2015 $1,304,989,205 7 July, 2007 $1,304,384,470 8 June, 2013 $1,246,141,267 9 July, 2008 $1,245,213,649 10 June, 2015 $1,233,722,360 11 December, 2016 $1,190,588,602 12 July, 2015 $1,183,636,438 13 March, 2017 $1,166,491,996 14 July, 2009 $1,161,129,344 15 July, 2006 $1,157,640,553 Some results we can see from this, is that March 2017 has also beating beaten every calendar gross for May, which may change the industry perspective on release dates as May is generally considered to be the start of the Summer Season, but clearly Summer (or a Holiday season in the case of Star Wars) is not a necessity. Another notable point is that 10/15 of the top grossing months are of July, in fact all of the top 5 are. So based on the stellar start to 2017, is it reasonable to believe that July 2017 could be making this chart too? Looking at the top 3 films for each of the top 5: July 2011: Harry Potter 7 part 2 - $318m Transformers 3 - $273m Captain America 1 - $117m 4th to 11th made over $30m July 2016: Secret Life of Pets - $296m Finding Dory - $138m Tarzan - $121m 4th to 13th made over $30m July 2013: Despicable Me 2 - $313m Grown Ups 2 - $106m The Heat - $104m 4th to 14th made over $30m July 2012: Dark Knight Rises - $304m Amazing Spiderman 1 - $244m Ted - $157m 4th to 9th made over $30m July 2010: Twilight Eclipse - $218m Despicable Me - $185m Inception - $184m 4th to 11th made over $30m So, what can we extrapolate for this in general. Well firstly each one, except 2010, has had a big hit making over $300m (or $296 for SLoP). Then either had another big grosser (2011 and 2012) or had more mid level grossers (2016 and 2013). 2010 seems to be a special case where instead of one outright winner, there were 3 films not far off from each other. It is clear to see why July 2011 made the top, as it had two big hits and a decent amount of smaller ones. So looking ahead to July 2017, to top the leaderboard, we need 1 or 2 big hits, and several smaller hits. Here's my take on some films which I think could contribute to make July 2017 the largest month ever. Cars 3, although releasing on June 16th, it's gross is largely expected to increase beyond Cars 2's $191m. Most estimates seem to suggest this will make in the region of $240m, so after an opening weekend of $75m, weekdays of $35m for a first week of $110m, estimating a week-on-week drop of 45% gives $60m second week, leaving roughly $60m to be grossed in July (estimating remaining $10m beyond July). So Cars 3 contributes mid-level with $60m. Transformers 5, releasing June 23rd, is expected to fall domestically from the previous installment after fatigue. It should open large but fall fast, being frontloaded. I currently have an estimate of $200m, with an $85m opening weekend and $30m weekdays, leaving roughly $80m of gross left for July, and a further $5m beyond that. So Transformers 5 contributes a mid to high level with $80m. Despicable Me 3, releasing June 30th, will have one day of June, while most of it's gross will be July. Trailer reactions seem to be positive and most expect this to continue Illuminations streak and improve upon DM2. Using the 2nd's adjusted gross gives a total of $400m, which seems about right, after an opening weekend of $120m. As this is expected to be slightly front loaded, I'd say $50m OD inc. previews, leaving $350m left, and again using DM2 adj., giving DM3 a gross of $25m from August onwards. So Despicable Me 3 contributes a mega hit with $325m. Spider-Man: Homecoming, releasing July 7th, following the good reactions from the trailers, and the inclusion of RDJ to the film, most expect this to perform similarly to Iron Man 2, with $130m OW and $310m overall. However due to good word of mouth, and likely to be one of the better Spiderman films, it's more likely to perform with $130m OW and $330m total. Having over 3 weeks in July should allow it to gather some decent gross, with $270m possible. So Spider-Man: Homecoming contributes a mega hit with $270m. Next up we have War for the Planet of the Apes, releasing July 14th. This is also an increasingly popular franchise with large potential to outgross its predecessor. Pegged in at an OW of $100m, and a total of $250m, due to strong competition, this should make about $190m in its July frame, leaving $60m for August and beyond. So War for the Planet of the Apes contributes a big hit with $190m. The final two, Dunkirk and Valerian, both releasing on July 21st, have had some strange predictions behind them. Some believe Dunkirk to have a total under $100m while others believe its OW could be over $100m, being a surprise breakout. For the sake of this, and its 10 days in July, I shall go in the middle and say Dunkirk contributes a large $100m to July 2017, with an OW of $55m, weekdays of $15m and 2nd weekend of $30m (due to WOM). The other stranger is Valerian. Some believe this to bomb similarly to Ghost in the Shell, while others believe it can make well over $100m. I shall say its 10 days get Valerian a contribution of $80m to July 2017. The final weekend, starting July 28th, gives each newcomer just 4 days to make some bucks. The wide notable openers are Atomic Blonder and The Emoji Movie. I haven't seen any predictions for Atomic Blonde, but it seems that perhaps $40m over the 4 day frame doesn't seem too far fetched. Next up, the Emoji Movie is largely expected to be frontloaded and have bad WOM, but it should pull a nice $30m-50m OW through pure curiosity of the GA. I've put The Emoji Movie at a moderate $50m for the 4-day frame. Below you can see a table summarising the grosses in July 2017 above in order: Despicable Me 3 - $325m Spider-Man: Homecoming - $270m War for the Planet of the Apes - $190m Dunkirk - $100m Transformers 5 - $80m Valerian - $80m Cars 3 - $60m Emoji Movie - $50m Atomic Blonde - $40m Remember these grosses are just what I believe they could make in July only. Looking through the release schedule, I believe a further 5 or so movies may be able to hit the mark for $30m in July, giving a scorecard as follows: July 2017: Despicable Me 3 - $325m Spider-Man: Homecoming - $270m War for the Planet of the Apes - $190m 4th to 14th over the $30m mark This stacks up compared to the top 5 July's at July 2011 level, or possibly even more. I'm going to say now that July 2017 is the biggest month ever, making $1,425m in calendar grosses, baring in mind my prediction above gives $1,345m if the other 5 movies make just $30m, so its not hard to believe that the other $80m could be made up from those 5, or perhaps the movies grossing <$30m. What are your July 2017 Calendar Gross predictions? And do you think it can break the record? Also this was my first ever, in-depth, box office analysis that I've formally written up on here, any constructive feedback would be much appreciated Sorry for the direct copy/paste from my Reddit post, but I didn't feel there was anything I particularly needed to change. As I mention at the bottom, any feedback and thoughts are very much welcome! (For those wondering, here's my Reddit post)

About the same chance of Kong going over the Beast's OW!

With those numbers, and the fact that Disney has largely underestimated BatB's Sunday capabilities, there is still chance that Beauty takes her Beast back to #1

Based on this, although it's very far out, do you think FF8 has the chance to overtake FF7?

Is there any comparisons for that? Such as other march openers, and other blockbusters in general? Thanks.

Ouch. Definitely not staying up then! It's already half past Midnight here, and the clocks go forward in half an hour. So Definitely going to sleep now, I shall await the Wrath of Rth in the morning.

Ah okay, well as I'm in the UK, staying up from 1am till 4am is probably not the best idea... Perhaps I should sleep

Thank you! What time zone is that? (assuming EST?) And yes, I am well aware of Gokira's bullsh*t

When does @Rth and the Beast report numbers? I think I trust Rth more than Deadline...

Any comparisons? (Top openings, other musicals and other live action remakes)

I went to the 10:30am 2D showing on Sunday at Crawley, which you'd expect to be not that busy as it's early Sunday morning. However, ignoring the first few rows on the floor which very few people ever voluntarily choose, the theatre was easily 70% full, with maybe 150+ people in there. Was quite shocking to be honest.

Cineworld Crawley's midnight imax screening of rogue one is half sold already.

Dangit, I always get those two mixed up >.<

Congratulations to Operation Mekong for being a Billion Yuan grosser! Somehow that slipped through quietly -

oh ok, How much of an increase can we expect for Thursday then, given it is a holiday? (What it is likely to do and the most it could possibly do)

Is that from Tuesday or from last week?