‘Nother North Shore Cinema Update
Fallen Kingdom is running 88% ahead of Homecoming, 16% ahead of Rangarok and 4% behind Justice League at the same point in time.
Looking at a wide range from $89.3M (if it’s frontloaded like JL) to $141.5M to $220M OW (if it’s backloaded like HC) using them comparison.
Again for the record this is from my local theater but this is still good for it and it has less showtimes than SMH and TR but the same as DM3. This will change next Tuesday will the final showtimes come.
Preliminary Box office prediction:
OW: $60M (about the same as Lego Batman, Thinking reviews will be about the same too but it being a sequel and will likely attract more females than Ninjago and Batman, the OW could be bigger)
DOM: $200M
OS: $170M (Don’t expect much OS but should be slightly bigger than Bats)
WW: $370M
I’d agree but it’s potentially not to late for Bumblebee but then again Bumblebee could also attract families.
If the VFX on Aquaman is taking too long, it can always move to February but it’ll do fine in December regardless. Bumblebee would be good in either February or even January or November if things move briskly imho.
I don’t see Alita/ME/Bumblebee/Aquaman in the December timeframe for too much longer. One or two will bite the bullet. ME is doomed either way but the other three have a chance. I think Bumblebee should move to January and Aquaman in February (cause Dark Phoenix will flop and Lego 2 is looking at around SOTW-TLBM numbers).
Poppins: $280M (I have a feeling the family competition in Grinch, Ralph 2, Spiderverse and to a lesser extent Beasts 2 will hurt)
Aquaman: $220M (Should benefit from lack of action movies since October but should hurt from competition and limited screen space).
Spiderverse: $125M (Around Peanuts Movie numbers but will deal with the same problems Poppins might have.)
Bumblebee: $90M (This looks good but it should move to somewhere with less competition)
Holmes: $80M (Could be a wild card if audiences like it)
Alita/Mortal Engines: $70M (both will do about the same)