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expensiveho

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About expensiveho

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  1. Since half of the population are Marvel fanboys, it actually underperformed. $15b confirmed for A5.
  2. If you've seen 60-70% of these movies (13 to 15!!!) you're also more likely to spend money on merchandising or other Marvel-related stuff. So it's really outstanding how Marvel has become such a big brand. I'm sure it'll keep making money on Disney princesses / Star Wars level for generations. (This has nothing to do with the other movie)
  3. It will make at least $70m more from Japan. So doing $45m off a $33m OS-Japan weekend is way too little. More like $65-80m for a $970-985m being really conservative. $1b is more likely than not at this point.
  4. I think all that Minions 2 underperforming talk is more wishful thinking. At worst I see just a slightly bigger decrease than DM3 WW-China from DM2 WW-China For some reason people love Minions and BOT is clearly not the target audience.
  5. I think that people believe that it's a "cheap" way to boost a movie. Like yeah, if you do a shared universe you'll get way more money by boosting each movie with other characters. No one can blame them, though. You see how Hollywood executives thought the same and lost hundreds of millions trying to replicate the MCU, thinking it was that easy. Even The Conjuring Universe (which is the only other sucessful shared universe, on a way smaller scale) is declining fast in just its 6th movie
  6. So really good for TS4? It's getting a nice increase in admissions, stable in lc (TS3 being inflated by 3D) and a decrease in $ (thanks to ER) Unless it collapses it'll have a decent drop overall, which was the best-case scenario. 1B WW is still in play.
  7. TS4 proved that critics are willing to go past the whole "unnecessary" point if the movie is exceptional. If you get a slightly above average movie (like BATB and possibly this) then the bias will be stronger but it's not like they'd get universal praise without it.
  8. Ok they did fuck it up (according to the trailers, haven't seen it) but you really chose the worst example to prove your point.
  9. Going from 7 $400m grossers to just 1 in a year sounds unlikely. The last "weak" year was 2014, which went from 3 $400m grossers to 0. But it went from 4 $300m grossers to 3 and stayed flat on $200m grossers (13 each year) We know that Disney and especially the MCU has a huge shot to breakout in a big way (I'd also add Mulan here, you never know). So while WW84 is the clear frontrunner DOM, I wouldn't be surprised by some of the other 3 winning. Mulan is the frontrunner WW unless it gets banned in China.
  10. It's gonna be interesting seeing a MCU movie avoid the "big drops in 2nd and 3rd weekends with strong late legs" pattern that has been going on for a few years. The usual +55-60% drop would be terrible for a deflated OW. If it follows TASM with ~45% that'd be O/U $50m second weekend which sounds like a nice target.
  11. Huh, they're trying to show the big action spectacle but it doesn't really look that appealing. They showing her turning into a dragon at the end of this trailer would've been a turning point for the marketing (I dont even know if it's happening so that's why) So while I think the main selling point for the first movie is still there, I don't know if it's enough to justify seeing it in theaters.
  12. I see them taking the Frozen "serious" approach with the early marketing. Hopefully both get a lighter marketing push close to the release. It looks great, though.
  13. Spider-Man popularity right after TASM2 was awful. 5 years later, SM has appeared in 5 movies that have grossed around 8 billion combined, a successful spinoff, an Oscar winning animated film and one the biggest video games in the past few years. Pretty impressive how Sony managed to save the IP.
  14. I read that there were big riots in a city recently, and the news were spreading like wildfire on Weibo. That + the on and off trade war means that the government will tighten the control it has as much as it can. Communist regimes always need a foreign target to blame for their mess and that's usually the US so it's really a no-brainer for them. I don't think it'll escalate that quickly, though. TLK is like 2 weeks away.
  15. This. I think the whole bar scene was just awful. It's the only part that felt disappointing to me. - After reading this thread, I gotta say some people get easily upset by the most random things. Possibly my favorite SM movie, maybe ITSV is still ahead.
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