Eevin

Right, just saying that even in the optimal 100% everything's-hunky-dory scenario it's still going to struggle to break even.

So, best-case scenario it opens to $17-18m this weekend, then somehow treads through the Christmas season glut to earn $50m total, then somehow manages to earn that much OS, which would give it $100m on a $45m budget. That's still not great, especially when you consider how much they probably spent on marketing. Still, it could break even down the road if it becomes a popular streaming option around Christmas every year.

Any chance of a Best Director nomination for Villenueve? One of the most underappreciated directors working today, IMO.

officially the second-grittiest movie about cars to come out next year

Yeah, after seeing the first Homecoming trailer I've upped my prediction to $350M+/$950M+. Put BatB at #2 because I think the really crowded March schedule (Logan, Kong, Power Rangers, etc.) is going to take away some business from it. If it were releasing in a less competitive month, like May for example, I think $450M+ and even $500M+ could be possible.

Crap, I went bold and put 13m for the weekend. That ain't happening now.

Moana: $19.7M Office Christmas Party: $13.8M Fantastic Beasts: $12M Arrival: $5.9M Doctor Strange: $4.7M Allied: $4.6M Hacksaw Ridge: $2.7M Trolls: $2.6M Manchester by the Sea: $2.5M Miss Sloane: $2.4M It'd be pretty funny if Manchester were to outgross Miss Sloane in 23% of the theaters...

Possibly. Do you think Sully has a shot at getting nominated for BP? As great as Arrival's box office run is I can't see a plausible scenario where it does $125m+ unless it wins every single Oscar ever.

I'm really excited about this movie. It looks and feels terrific, the CGI is stunning, and the stakes actually feel earned. I still see this with around $230M domestic, mostly because it had an opportunity to break out huge with the last sequel and didn't. But $250M+ wouldn't surprise me if most other late June/mid-July films (SMH, DM3, Dunkirk, Valerian, etc.) artistically or commercially disappoint.

So does this have a solid chance of $100m+? I can't imagine it missing 90m at this point, and I think a likely BP nomination will help with late legs, especially if it's on 1000+ screens post-New Year's. For reference, if it has similar legs to Gravity from here on out it gets to $107m; If it plays like Interstellar from here on out it gets to $106m; If it plays like The Martian it gets to $105m. I don't see it going under that range, especially with this many screens going into the holidays and significant Oscar buzz.

yeah, ikr? I wince every time they have character arcs or emotion or cohesive plotlines or fun. But hey, I'm sure someone somewhere likes that kind of drivel.

I think it's genius on Paramount's part. If Arrival had opened in 3000+ theaters before Thanksgiving then it would have shedded a lot of screens thanks to FB, Moana, etc. I don't doubt that the Christmas glut will cause it to lose screens, but the fact that they're expanding later rather than sooner means that it's relevant for longer.

That's good for FB, no? Smaller Wednesday drop than last week with larger Tuesday increase...very likely dropping sub-35% this weekend, which would be *ahem* fantastic.

DOM: 1. SW8 ($800M) 2. GotG2 ($450M) 3. BatB ($400M) 4. SMH ($350M) 5. JL ($350M) 6. Lego Batman ($330M) 7. DM3 ($315M) 8. WW ($300M) 9. F8 ($280M) 10. Coco ($275M) WW: 1. SW8 ($1.8B) 2. F8 ($1.3B) 3. GotG2 ($1.2B) 4. BatB ($1B) 5. DM3 ($950M) 6. SMH ($950M) 7. JL ($900M) 8. TF5 ($900M) 9. WW ($750M) 10. WftPotA ($750M) The WW and JL numbers are accounting for the fact that they are both somewhat well-received, but if one or both get BvS/SS level reception I could easily see much lower for them. I could see Coco slightly edging War of the Planet of the Dawn of the Revenge of the Redundant Title of the Apes, I just think it'll be a little lower overall considering it's an original property while Apes is coming off of two very well-received predecessors.

Obviously I wish something like Manchester or (cough cough) La La Land could still have a run like say, Tootsie or Terms of Endearment, but I think the examples you've cited just over the last four years show that there is still plenty of room for a successful adult drama given the proper circumstances. What's sad is the fact that something like Steve Jobs craps out at $17m because Michael Fassbender isn't a star, or that something like Billy Lynn has one of the worst domestic box office runs in years (sub-$2m) because it doesn't get Oscar-worthy reviews. The fact that a drama for adults has to have 1) a sci-fi/action premise, 2) significant Oscar buzz or 3) a recognizable movie star in order to be a success is kinda disheartening. or idk maybe I'm just ranting idk

At this point, I kinda doubt anyone's going to see these because of their artistic value, but I applaud Paramount for trying. The trailer almost got me to want to see this one in theaters.