Barnack

Pretty much Aquaman/Flash/Catwoman reboot left ? I imagine it went like this before 2008s: Superman/Batman Joker-Robin / Wonder Woman Catwoman / Luthor / Penguins well the Batman/Superman movies people in generals. Aquaman Green Lantern / Flash Not sure I know any other and by knowing I am only saying knowing their name/high concept I have no idea what Green Lantern/Flash do.

Mods will need to create the hardcore fanboy wars thread, to keep this thread wars civil.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/box-office-ant-man-wasp-crushes-first-purge-76m-1125547#ampshare=https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/box-office-ant-man-wasp-crushes-first-purge-76m-1125547 45% apparently.

It was Universal most profitable movie ever and for a long time if it got beat in 2015, it still has many all time record in many market some that could stay unbeated (dvd sales notably, it's soundtrack also sold like crazy) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_films_in_the_United_Kingdom http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/sweden/yearly/?yr=2008&p=.htm http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/uk/yearly/?yr=2008&p=.htm Made more than the Dark Knight in the UK. It would not surprise me if the american audience caught up to it simply later than the rest of the world. But at the same time maybe not, thus the I am not sure what OW number would surprise me, it is wide open imo.

Abba + returning Assemble cast much more important here, but it is simply the sequel of one of the biggest and most beloved movie of all time, it could go really high (and have terrible legs versus the over 5.0 of the first one)

Mamma mia doing a 65m would not surprise me one bit to be honest (I am not sure which number would surprise me, 41 Ocean 8 type would not, 65-70m would not either)

Fandango sales today (well since 4:00 am): Ant-Man 8317 Incredib 3101 Jurassic 2663 The Firs 1212 Sicario 631 Hotel Tr 619 Uncle Dr 542 Oceans 8 491 Wont You 329 Tag (201 220 Whitney 209 Skyscrap 170 Solo A S 167 Mamma M 156 Deadpool 156 Attack o 132 Avengers 125 Mission 96 Sanju 94 Trolls 91 Sorry to 83 Beatles 60 Heredita 58 The Equa 36 Mothers planning the activity in advance is a possible phenomenon for a movie like HT vs a Skyscraper and obviously being a sequel, that said the delta between the 2 is quite huge at the moment. But even more than for a Jurassic Park, pre-sales much in advance much be such a tiny ridiculous fraction of a movie like that business that it must have a lot of noise if we could look at the usual multiplier (who are those people buying ticket in advance for movie like those.....). Mamma Mia tend to outsell cleanly Mission Impossible since the beginning also (making the rumors it was tracking ahead not crazy at all)

Rumor in the trade is 162m net (so I imagine close to 190-200m gross), keeping the cost down relative to the other MCU entry make it very easy for it to turn a nice profit.

Previews were still midnight in 2007 and 2012 too right ? (And amazing spider man was a monday release in 2012), I have an hard time reading them, but a quick look July 6 friday jumps was quite quite low, indicating that it was either a specially strong Thursday or low weekend.

The movie opened at 114m WW with all those market releasing later: Austria 22 July 2015 Denmark 22 July 2015 Finland 22 July 2015 Norway 22 July 2015 Sweden 22 July 2015 Germany 23 July 2015 Hungary 23 July 2015 Cambodia 23 July 2015 Netherlands 23 July 2015 Spain 24 July 2015 India 24 July 2015 Vietnam 24 July 2015 Kuwait 29 July 2015 United Arab Emirates 30 July 2015 Iraq 30 July 2015 Lebanon 30 July 2015 Latvia 31 July 2015 South Africa 31 July 2015 Nigeria 1 August 2015 Mongolia 7 August 2015 Italy 12 August 2015 Austria 27 August 2015 South Korea 3 September 2015 Japan 15 September 2015 (Tokyo) (premiere) Greece 17 September 2015 Japan 19 September 2015 China 16 October 2015 It was a considerably smaller rumored budget than the first Thor and first Captain America and opening not too far (and very well intl). Googling a little bit for the forbes and others OW reaction, not one mention of a flop can be seen, all mentioning a nice smaller scale for them but still clear success story.

Is the 6.61 internal multi the worst ever for an non Avengers MCU ? Those have ridiculous mega previews numbers like the star wars that make certain to keep low internal multi. Civil War 7.16 Homecoming 7.6 Thor: 8.46 Is so, how much is simply having the Thursday falling on the 4 of July celebration/people taking days of ?, do we have some precedent for very recent blockbuster ? Will see with the legs I guess.

I would be curious to hear the name of one serious person saying AntMan (the movie that made over 500m + got a bigger budget sequel greenlight) was a flop ?

Iger is just an employee and is getting close to 70.... Do we have a striving Searchlight in 2050 is not fully on him, trusting him or not. My feeling is that Searchlight has a much better chance to survive and do be active than Fox studio, (that will be sell I would imagine, maybe to an apple/amazon/netflix or other one wanting to create a lot of content), they provide Disney with something they do not have already a bit more. Could even see getting more budgets. Not sure they will commit to a theatrical release for every of their movies, but depending on what their streaming look like it could have a really bright future. I imagine it does not make sense to make 200m streaming movie, but Searchlight movies yes. Previous iteration of Disney made good money letting the Weinstein creating library value at Miramax (that they sold 10 time the price they bought it). Fox Searchlight make it easy to not have any brand confusion for them, build value in a type of movie they do not have much right now, would probably make it easy to not have those in their big demand with exhibition group and to have a separate ROI internally not hurting their result, I have no problem believing him when he say he has strong intention to keep it open. 21th Century Fox, Inc too.... that an other story. But the fact Fox is getting bought by one of the studio without a specialty division is indeed a good sign for Searchlight I would think (but the being the best would have probably replaced/influenced the division of the acquirer more than the other way around)

Speaking of which have you seen Nathan for you episode when he make people believe they are seeing a theater play when they are simply looking at regular people doing nothing in a bar ? http://www.comedycentral.com.au/nathan-for-you/videos/nathan-for-you-305-clips good example of what you are talking about. The bullshit episode on high end restaurant being an other one, or that experiment: https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2014/10/23/358324106/don-t-mock-these-organic-food-experts-for-praising-mcdonald-s Presenting itself as being good would it be brand like Coke/Ferrari/Apple/Marvel/Star Wars score activating a part of the brain or presenting itself like high art obviously influence people Futurist. But every adult must know all of this by now.

Bad thread or are you calling Yorgos Lanthimos The favourite an Ampas movie ?

Broke them for a reason.

Have you seen Tag ?

People complained about Oscar bait and campaigning since at least the 70s and talked about Oscar bait since at least the 50s it is not something recent has an invention. One change is now we do not hear about studio voting block (there was a tendancy from the studio era for the ampas to be filled with studio employee that people thought voted for their own studio movie and talked about vote split if a studio had 2 movie in nominations). It is not a new or Weinstein genre. Like you said first he just upped the game but probably that VHS would have upped and opened the door for non studio to compete in it even without them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oscar_bait While the term has been used in discussions of films since at least 1948, and studios have always tended to release at least some films that seemed intended for Oscar voters near the end of the year, the explicit use of the Oscar nominations as a promotional strategy dates to 1978. That year, Michael Cimino's The Deer Hunter was shown only to limited audiences heavy with Oscar voters and critics for just long enough to be eligible, and then went into wide release after the nominations were announced

The very lazy beginning and having an hard time having an ending hurt it, 90 vs 71 MC score reflect the difference. They do it more than ever before too right ? (just read how many people complain about how niche they got). Elle got an Oscar nomination and a movie about a woman that love getting raped will pretty much be as risky as it will realistically get for such a large group of voters. Obviously when you have 7,000 voters and from all around the world and different culture, what achieve to make a large enough consensus by definition will not be that much of a niche (maybe one day the vote will split so much they will achieve to get in). But last year: Call me by your name Get out Three Billboard Shape of water Lady Bird The Florida Project Mudbound Mixed nicely with the more traditional The post, I Toyna, Dunkirk, Phantom Thread, Darkest hour, Roman J. Israel, Esq. All the Money in the World, etc...

20 year's ago there was 3 sequel ever got nominated for best picture i think. Godfather 2 and 3 The Bells of St. Mary's in 1945 Only one non Godfather movie did it and a long time ago, it is far from certain that Dark Knight would get nominated in 1998, if Empire Strike Back didn't in the early 80s and if it did not in 2008 (you share a lot of the same voters and voting system between 1998 and 2008). In a general way, with the industry getting so OW heavy and franchise heavy, it pretty much disconnected box office with the movie actual quality (i.e. the previous entry in the franchise could be more important than the current movie quality), making it not surprising that it would disconnect box office with awards. The more word of mouth type of success/success not coming from being pre-selling well to fans even before anyone saw the movie, still get nominated in best picture in a very high % rate, like pointed out except for Inside Out, maybe Zootopia/Moana, in live action at least it rarely miss out.

I think people really suspected that would rapidly become the conclusion at least. It is hard to say, the academy always hated sequel so much and now that comic book movie are presented as some movie universes, it is hard to distinguish which is the major factor, sequel/universe or SH.

I think BP best picture nominations is a bit over 50% likely to happen. Logan got in the WGA last year, Guardian of the Galaxy in 2014, Wonder Woman made the Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures list. Those movie were maybe not too far. Black Panther bigger success, better critical success, it has good chance.

Why would the original Star Wars movie be seen a lot differently than Avatar/Lord of the Ring/Fury Road ? It would not be a franchise yet, it would be a totally original new think in voter eye, an very long dream vision put on screen by an artist with a lot of control doing is thing and succeeding in this franchise world ? Think it would get more nominations than it did back in the days.

Box office is still a big plus for the Academy I think (not sure Get Out get in without is giant success). James Cameron explanation make some sense it well in one interview, the biggest branch of the Academy is the acting branch, if the movie is perceived to be too effect heavy and not actors driven enough they can reject them (and more and more that the case of movie garnering giant success). That and the sequel/movie universe is why we see a disconnect between the biggest success at the box office and Best picture nomination, not that the voters do not want to vote for a movie just because it is making a lot of money. They voted for Gravity/The Martian, why would they not vote for a Jaws, Gladiator or Raiders.

The highest blockbuster on betters list is by far Black Panther at the moment, Ready Player One / Incredibles 2 far down the line.