Barnack

Is tracker formula take pre-sales into account much ? specially for a movie like this one too ?

But like Jumanji it is featuring a really well proven commercially movie trope (And A Quiet Place just worked really well with it), even more than a trope now an actual already made movie that people love and something F+25 could be interesting in. Rampage was a bit more risky/unproven proposition and Baywatch didn't play on is extremelly safe time in theater family 8-77 year's old audience crowd Johnson get. But sure non IP franchise does not have an high floor and you have a lot of franchise movie sharing a lot of is potential audience (MI 6, ant man, Equalizer 2) a possibly bigger spectacle in Meg and Mile 22 around the same time.

I am talking about Skyscraper. https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/dwayne-johnsons-skyscraper-gets-heroic-super-bowl-spot-1080774 Concerning that worry:

Feel like this is a movie targeting a really quiet on the film Internet audience, making it way harder to judge with those metric. But if the first trailer reached people and not the second one that could show something, I think the same happened with Tomb Raider for example (did the first trailer matched a Superbowl push too ?)

The part were someone know about movie stuff enough to know who made the motion capture performance for a character but still think he had anything significant to do with what the end result ended to be (like if someone else would have done it it would have been better ? They should have took the ethical choice to not take the job for the movie to not exist ?) is quite a strange stretch. Not that you would ever expect logic from a ruined my childhood type of person, probably shout at McDo 17 year's old employees about Mcdonald's Inc decisions.

Do you think that without that standard Johnson will make a bigger OW effort than the crazy amount of promotions he already do and compete with original movie with the franchise 200M OW ? Smith did it quite often 50M even unadjusted, indepedance-day, Men in black, I robot, Hancock, I am legend (a bit of an IP there but not that strong), but even Tom Cruise did it only one time outside sequel with Spielberg War of the world and that was a remake. Tom Hanks never did. It is not like Smith OW power was common. A difference is that they didn't had to spend billion buying the franchise prior to or paying the estate/owner on the movie revenues if they didn't bought it.

The talk was about how much Disney budgeted/projected TLJ to do, that is me estimating Disney knew the franchise was rejected and not expected it to growth from Awaken there, not a judgement value if TLJ should have or not made better in that market. The fact the person never gave is Disney source in response (if I didn't miss it), went into my intuition here, that we do not know that Disney projection. I think that is probable, the hook is not similar to the previous final trilogy entry I suppose.

With the money A quiet place just made, San Andreas before that, the Taken franchise, I doubt it will happen soon, men protect is family will be a very lucrative trope for a long time.

I imagine what matter is when do they get the money and when do they exchange it if they do, does anyone know ? Maybe toward the end of the run isn't far from what happen or maybe they get and exchange weekly ? Real time ? end of the quarter ?

Well Lord of the rings would be a giant success, the 3 movie did over 6 billion from theater and home entertainment alone I think. Big not giant type of success but still really big Ocean 11, Fast five, Great Escape, Dirty Dozen, Italian Job, Magnificant 7 to really big like the first 2 Ghostbuster (and I imagine long list I cannot think of), Armageddon, Inception teaming up is such a common movie trope.

The cold AC room can became a big ticket sellers I would imagine yes, maybe less today than in the past but still one.

You have been nicely shielded from the purple lady complain..... I think Last Jedi have a nice list of widely-agreed upon good part, score, cinematography, movie didn't get it vast critical acclaim out of no solid consensus base.

Did we got some between Hit Girl and Kick Ass, in the second movie ?

70 seem to work for those long form cameo type, Harrison Ford was around 72 for Awaken, Mirren 70 for Fast and Furious, Redford got over 80 and still appear in marvel movies, Douglas is 73, Suthurland was over 70 for the Hunger Games, Plummer is now 87.... Just need to be realistic, but he is still making multiple movies every year.

According to study being shot in the face (zone 1-2): Is indeed dangerous and does lead to that high of a lethal rate for an incident but not extreme either, with zone 2 being probably the best chance of surviving: The mortality rates were significantly different by injuries to Zones I, II, and III, at 5.3%, 1.8%, and 26.2%, https://www.popsci.com/article/science/science-confirms-obvious-being-shot-face-bad#page-2 The absence of recourse for a good time not helping obviously but still the movie sold it well. Alejandro was moving a lot, shot by a first time shooter (I though he would miss), in the face and only one bullet, the in/out place he got shot and being at the best survival rate possible for a shot in the face incident was well shown to the audience.

JW 2 is pretty much similar to a 5th sequel, the first part box office is not 100% representive of how loved by audience it was and the interest in a sequel, it was in large part build in pre-made interest from being an entry of an already establish franchise. Anyway blockbuster sequels usually tend go down also, here all the blockbuster first sequel that went up unadjusted at the domestic box office without a very long gap between the release, starting with a first high grossing entry ever: Above 400m first entry: Catching Fire (4% improvement) Above 300m first entry: Transformer 2 (26%) Lord of the rings 2: (8%) Pirates of the Caribbean 2: 39% Above 200m first entry: Shrek 2: 65% Despicable me 2: 46% Alvin and the chipmunks 2: 1% Dark Knight: 160% Pretty much every other first movie that made over 200m ever sequel went down domestic. You cannot just name 7 movies like that and determine that a vast majority of the time that is the case. You need to take say 100 of them without cherry picking and looking at the percentage of time sequel grew vs declined. There was a moment went intl market grow (like say in China), made it look more of an automatic than it was.

Well Sicarios are really political movie so it is more than ok to read/access/talk and critic how politic is handled in them or the political message they can push and read. They did went eat there cake and the money a little bit with it I have rewatched the first one the day just after and the contrast, yes police are corrupt but they personalise one.

More common to go down no, just last year: Last Jedi (2068->1332) Furious 8 (1516->1236) Despicable me 3 (971->1035, but Minions did 1159 between the 2) Pirates (1045->795) Guardian 2 (773->864) Thor 3 (645->854) Justice League (873->658) Transformer Last Knight (1104->605) Logan (415->619) Planet of the apes (711->491) Kingsman (414->411) Car 3 (562->384) 50 shades (571->377) This year, Solo, Deadpool 2, Pacific Rim, 50 shades, Jurassic Park, Maze Runner, Paddington will go down Avengers, Incredible 2 will go up, not sure for Ocean 8 but could end up below 13 that made 311m ? Anyway you get the rough idea.

Well there is some balance to struck, but after 3 weekend it is not really predicting a result anymore than that what people were trying to do. But yeah the idea to apply previous family animated movie multiplier to one that was not playing at all like one from is first Thursday preview numbers was extremely optimistic and unrealistic imo.

No that only direct production cost a movie like that total cost is about 275m, you can a complete break down of the cost a couple of message later:

If it is -59/60, it is not much "news" that is true, a near 150m OW direct sequel second weekend drop, tend to look like that. Recent Giant openner direct (or somewhat, movie universe being a bit hard to read) sequel second weekend drop BvS: -69.1% Last Jedi: -67.5% Deadpool 2: -65.4% Dark Knight Rise: -61.4% Civil War: -59.5% Furious 7: -59.5% Iron Man 2: -59.4% Ultron: -59.4% Rogue One: -58.7% Iron Man 3: -58.4% Winter Soldier: -56.6% Incredible 2: -56% Infinity war: -55.5% Gotg 2: -55.5% Thor 3: -53.5% Skyfall: -53.5% Mockingjat Part 1: -53.3% Catching Fire: -53.1% Dark Knight: -52.5% Dory: -46% ----------- Feel right around that -59% figure. Even all time great reception and when midnight previews started at midnight they usually didn't achieve a -50% (say Dark Knight) like Jurassic World did, worst hold were to be expected regardless of reception and considering the movie reception normal to go toward a -60%.

On that debate, in modern time with AC at work, car and home and by what we call extreme heat in Canada..... I think I would take Canada extreme heat every day over Canada extreme cold, when we get close to -40, specially if you add some wind it is kind of debilitating to try to do anything outside that is not some form of active enough sport for a short time, the consequence of a always frosted ground for infrastructure, the lot of clothes constant ordeal, the poor cars..... There is probably good reason why you find much more humans in place that it is often very hot than the other way around. Except with some special suit and space helmet type, you never get to be comfortable in extreme cold, you need at least to wear a mask that heat the air before breathing it and your movement/activity at that level of equipment will be very uncomfortable, electronic/battery do not work long outside either. Everything to do become a challenge requiring a lot of preparation in extreme cold, it is fun a day from time to time with people rallying around it, but more than that it would be terrible pain.

Sicario 2 got quite the troubled release: https://variety.com/2017/film/news/sicario-sequel-granite-mountain-lionsgate-sony-1202394099/ But I think Rothman like that franchise (he pushed the first one at Sony when he was not running the show yet, but it was also him pushing them to get Villeneuve at Sony stable, same for Arrival) and the first one had almost no downside for the acquiring studio with how Black Label finance them after international pre-sales (small 32m budget) and was a fully independent movie. That is the trade status about it: While the studio has reported that Soldado cost $35M, our phone is ringing off the hook with sources telling us that the movie’s budget is a reported $45M before P&A (vs Sicario‘s reported $30M). At that budget level, finance sources question how Soldado profits. Sony receives a distribution and marketing fee, and reportedly doesn’t have any skin in this sequel, which they obtained after Black Label decided not to release via Lionsgate after a disagreement over the title’s release date and marketing plans (news which Deadline exclusively reported). Sony has Latin American and Spain for Soldado, which open this weekend, followed by South Africa on Aug. 3. Lionsgate is opening Soldado in 42 international territories this weekend, with the major locales being UK, South Korea, Australia, France and Russia/CIS. This one also a fully 100% independent movie apparently from people that really do what they want and have La la land money, that make stuff a bit hard to predict. Element like if Blunt really agreed on the third one like it was said in some interview at a really good price but with good back end points, if Sheridan idea for it is a good one and if it is a concept they can make around 35m, this one does not necessarily need to make that much, could need to continue to oversell on home video too. A 17.5m OW, 51m dbo, 35m intl, 86m WW type for the bad received one could be seen as enough depending on Home ent performance to green light a 35-40m next one.

Can be hard to keep it at that level, sequel of a successful movie like that price can go up. And they would want to up the stake for a sequel (either returning cast from the O8-011, casting a name villain or up the setting to something bigger than a Gala) A bit like the Salt 2 movie they wrote never happened and was converted into a tv series project without Jolie, sequel of movie starring Bullock are certainly not certain to happen (Heat 2 never did). I think that on that aspect, do they come up with a worthy high concept that could interest them is important here, what a developer writer come up (or what spec script they can shit into an Ocean sequel they have or see they can buy) could determine what they do.

Should have considered paying him $50m on that one.