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Barnack

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Everything posted by Barnack

  1. Jungle cruise shoot started may 14, 2018 Has of now: Jungle Cruise: No release date yet Hobbs & Shaw : August 2, 2019 Jumanji 3: December 2019 Add I would imagine a really small role / cameo in Fighting with my family (Suicide Squad 2 will not happen form 2019). Hobbs & Shaw do seem like a big movie to have an august release if they just started to photography in june for Jungle Cruise, but they can 10 month for that one and 10 month for jumanji 3 and make it fit I think.
  2. You do not want to be influenced by the other laughter augmenting the enjoyment of a movie so you have a more objective view on it ? Weird trade of, specially for a non professional critic (and movie being made to be seen in a group not necessarily a fair one)
  3. Is there a good comparable for Sicario 2 on that list ?
  4. I imagine you are talking about the movie ? Wonder woman: The character first appeared in All Star Comics #8 in December 1941 The Marvel branding began in 1961, the year that the company launched The Fantastic Four and other superhero titles created by Stan Lee, Jack Kirby, Steve Ditko, and many others. ------------------------------ I have not seen all the MCU movies so I could be missing the reference here, didn't felt like an homage to the MCU (and that would be quite the strange thing to do for people that were already growth up adult when those movies started just yesterday, I doubt they care much about those movies certainly not doing homage... that more something you do to about your childhood movies I would imagine). The movie felt similar to the 5th element in a lot of ways. There is probably something here, but I think the main reason is it make possible to not care at all about the DCEU aspect, BvS establish they were all unknown and that is your only restriction, but you are free of having to consider the rest of the rules/storyline. How do you have Wonder Woman costumes in 2018, what do you loose if you 100% remove the fish out water element ( ), how do you keep some nice "politic" like Americans now call stuff like that without pissing off modern audience, make it about issue from the pass that are now really strong uncontroversial consensus. Maybe there is some, didn't really want the hero character to have done nothing between WW1 and Doomsday and wanted to quickly rewrite it change the canon right away.
  5. Unlike MoviePass giving 7-8-9 even 14$ by movie seen, them by giving only around $4.50-$5, $6 for the avengers/star wars by movie seen to the studio it take many movies to reach that $19.99 amount they charge, under 5 movie a month and you are still not actively paying that customer to come see movies. Obviously for those heavy user they lost what they would have paid when they bought them individually, but still 53 movies a year is quite a lot. And like you said them unlike MP have the high margin concessions sales boost that goes into their pocket directly.
  6. Probably a big deception if that occur. Sicario: 47m Hell or high water: 27m Winder River; 33.8m Sicario also started at 12.15m but there is little to no chance for a sequel with those reviews to leg it out like it did. I really thought it could have had that 15-16m OW that 12 strong / Den of thieve / American Assassin just had recently.
  7. Well they will be paying the agreed distributor cut on $9.00 for every movie seen if I understand correctly (they used the average nationwide ticket average): AMC (NYSE: AMC) will pay its distributor partners’ cut of the box office (typically around 60 percent) based on a ticket price of $8.99 for standard 2D films viewed using A-List So around 53% to 65% for studio movie, 35% of that amount for independant, etc... They will loose money on 3dMovies/IMAX and so on, but on regular 2D the studio will be making quite the same no ?
  8. I guess AMC will go on a full year but they do not commit to it. People that will have reserved now are certain to have the option to pay only $19.95 for a year: Once you sign up, the $19.95 price is guaranteed for one year (12 months). In case of changes to the membership fee, you’ll be notified via email provided the change is not due to change in applicable taxes.
  9. Netflix changed that game completely I would imagine (theatrical was completely death for them and free on youtube type videos were a big competition)
  10. I doubt 2000 extra would be in the top biggest ever fight scene, some movies used over 10,000 extras for fight scene in the past: No movies in history will probably be has big fight sequence than those communist Russian movies, look at this: Around 15,000 extras I think. The rumored budget of the "what if" they would have been done them in capitalist society instead of using soldier forced to are just insane.
  11. Jeff Nichols hated it if I remember correctly, that was a movie made to play strong in the country and it got a very limited release. How much do they get from theater in retention rate ? They only have USA right (Elevation Pictures has Canada). For some comparison from sony classic release: 2 Midnight in Paris SPC $56,817,045 1,038 $599,003 6 5/20/11 3 Blue Jasmine SPC $33,405,481 1,283 $612,064 6 7/26/13 Sony only had domestic for them. Midnight in paris: domestic theatrical: 22.619m domestc home ent: 22.721m home ppv: 4.887m domestic Pay Tv: 11m Free tv: 4.6m Airlines: 1.045m other: 0.382m Total Revenues: 67m Marketing cost: 17m Residual: 1.63m Blue Jasmine: domestic theatrical:13.24m domestc home ent: 15.825m home ppv: 5.361m domestic Pay Tv: 6.735m Free tv: 0.3 Airlines: 0.297m other: 0.58m Total Revenues: 42.339m Marketing cost: 17m Residual: 1.63m For an horror movie reference (getting studio retention rate too) Deliver Us from evils (30.5m dbo): DOMESTIC THEATRICAL REVENUE 16,000 DOMESTIC HOME ENT REVENUE 15,330 DOMESTIC HOME ENT PPV REVENUE 3,99 DOMESTIC PAY TV REVENUE 5,390 DOMESTIC FREE TV REVENUE 3,090 AIRLINES AND MUSIC 90 NON-THEATRICAL & OTHER 67 Domestic revenues: 44m Domestic marketing cost: 32m Revenues / domestic ratio Midnight in paris: 1.2 Blue Jasmine: 1.26 Deliver us from evils: 1.44 If Hereditary finish at 41-42m in the US, I could see it make 50m in revenues.
  12. At that price tag I am not sure content made at 2 million a minute like the big movies make sense. How many customer will you gain/maintain with a single movie for a monthly streaming platform, enough to justify a 200m cost (that like 833k clients for 2 year's), flagship product will be multi season series a la Game of Thrones/Stranger Things I suspect. A movie theater can get $70-$100 from a family of 4 for one single 2 hours movie sitting, Netflix need almost a year and ton of content to get the same amount. The production price by minute cannot be the same I would imagine, it will still be TV at the end.
  13. From memory I think a fraction of the group are also asking why there is so much money and get revealed the crown jewel. And in the final product it does feel purely to service keeping it hidden from the audience in a 100% artificial way, like if it changed along the way from something more substantial. I wonder how much of the Ocean 8 project came from the script that was bout by WB (via New Line) not so long after the time I imagine O8 development started: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/met-gala-heist-script-goes-829200 Did they just bought it to not get lawsuit/a similar movie getting released just before them or like some of the idea ? Once she is part of it, it stop making sense too. For example them unlocking the neckless tension moment make little sense once she is part of the group, making her sick... a lot of stuff become too easy.
  14. Not a bad idea, the twist being instead of making 8m each we are making 14m each was quite a small difference (nothing for all the character except one with the tax problem). Specially that keeping that part of the heist secret to the other's make very little sense (if they were not thinking about keeping it), maybe there was a version of this were they cheat the other's and keep more money for themselves or change their mind in that scene and that the reveal....
  15. If it would be profit (I doubt it), it does not move the buffer that much, has it get lower at the same time the movie get less profitable and does not move the break even bar at all either (does move your return break a lot too). A big profit participation model with movies that has a reasonable budget like the rumored number we see would be a bit of an After Earth type of scenario, more than MIB 3 type of scenario or transformer scenario with people getting large first dollar gross on those. After earth: at a net production budget of: 149.4m Break even scenario: 99.5m dbo / 175.m intl WW: 274.5m Total revenues: 328.04 (126.24 from theatrical, 202 after) Profit: $0 Creative Share: 1.19m Because there is no bonus giving before profit is shared, that project had a really low break even point (see also the distinction made here between 99.5 and 100m with the intl tv revenues taking a 5.5m jump between 99.5m and 100m dbo). Expected/Budgeted scenario: 160m dbo / 240.m intl WW: 400m Total revenues: 460.44 (185.6 from theatrical, 274.85 after) Profit: $45.28m for a 9.8% gross margin Creative Share: 59.19m Return GP break: 270m dbo / 406m intl WW: 676m Total revenues: 600.19(314 from theatrical, 286m after) Profit: $74.7m for a 12.4% gross margin Creative Share: 148.62m By giving so much of the profit away instead of giving first dollar gross to reduce risk, you make the return break level explode. 180m movies is like an X-Men movies/A Planet of the Apes type of movies, if they are on profit bonus a Jurassic Park could make less than those (those being high profit movies) and still have margin I would imagine, we are just used to see so much bigger from them that we assume that it need to make more than what a X-Men Apocalypse or an Planet of the Apes entry need to do, even at very similar budget. That could be true in reality (first dollar bonus, bigger world release, etc...) but not necessarily, not at least in the proposed no participation before profit scenario and considering they are strong domestic movies) Numbers here (page 2): https://wikileaks.org/sony/docs/03_03/MKTGFIN/SOP Cashflows/INCURRED/14fcsts/FY14 Sensitivities 2013-05-15.pdf I would suspect that for something like this, they are on first dollar gross and with a much higher
  16. Not before I am talking about the total runs in those already open market. It is at 70.6m from a 26.9m weekend, lot of intl market are more leggy than domestic and often the second weekend drop can be the harshest if it play a bit like on the domestic. It just opened in Germany/Russia/Portugal and so on.... were even fanboys franchise sequel movie tend to go over 3.0, (Thor 3 did over 6.0x legs in Russia for example) Using Ocean 13 for an example of this: Germany WB 6/7/07 $3,443,915 20.3% $16,958,691 9/23/07 . Russia - CIS Karo 6/7/07 $2,149,017 31.9% $6,745,631 9/16/07 ., Spain WB 6/8/07 $3,029,549 27.6% $10,979,002 9/23/07 . Norway Sandrew 6/8/07 $312,546 12.9% $2,427,178 9/2/07 . United Kingdom WB 6/8/07 $5,950,959 22.5% $26,483,353 9/2/07 . Australia Roadshow 6/14/07 $3,365,866 32.3% $10,415,093 9/12/07 If it does 2.5x times it's last weekend, that 138m If it does 3.5x times it's last weekend, that 165m
  17. You loose some of them, but at the same time you gain girl night out when the boyfriend are watching smaller game (that do not involve the local team), it is probably has good as it get counter-programming wise for the mainstream adult audience. Japan was by a good amount the best market for that franchise and has yet to open, Italy/Spain usually are really strong good also and the current one should reach 140m to 172m.,
  18. If this is a case of stolen song, it is much more than a media affair, it will be judicial court (but often settle off court) and the guy will end up rich, really no need for the media to get involved. It happen all the time: https://www.billboard.com/articles/news/list/6501950/songs-accused-plagiarism-no-1-hot-100-blurred-lines Even when the artist is death, Marvin Gaye estate made 7.4 million from Blurred Lines copy. Vanilla Ice even tried to say that he didn't copied Under Pressure in a very funny way. Artist/comics often sell or give stuff between each other or ask permission prior also, from the exterior we often mistake something quite normal for stealing.
  19. Never read Disney specify profit or loss on a movie in their annual report, they simply lump everything together. I do not think it is not for no other reason then avoiding embarrassment, it is also for making many millions from reaching that landmark. Has for how they did it: https://variety.com/2018/film/box-office/wrinkle-in-time-incredibles-2-drive-ins-1202849353/amp/ Like everyone thought simply by putting drive-in double feature ticket sales on both movies: It turns out the movie got a helping hand from some Pixar superheroes. Disney paired “A Wrinkle in Time” with “Incredibles 2” for most drive-ins, according the studio, which contributed to the box office boost. In cases where both movies played as a double feature, Disney tallied that revenue to each of the two releases, dividing the haul after the weekend.
  20. Have you considered starting a new identity ?, since the I do not see Incredible 2 making more than 200-300m domestic followed by I expected more than a 170m OW mistake, this account has lost of is potency and magic. Maybe a Devin Faraci account ?
  21. It is a bit different on 2 aspect. Mostly, that was a growing cinematic franchise, Supremacy almost made 50% more than the previous one, 2->3 50m jump is the same than the previous grow. And Ultimatum got an clear uptick in it's reception thought from a 80% type to 90% (A-, A- to A cinemascore)
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