Barnack

I do not think they ever released a big budget title in their history, it is a low budget movie division, when Joy become a big budget David O Russell movie it stopped to be a Fox Searchlight project to become a direct under the studio one for a recent example. Grand Budapest hotel, Tree of Life type (30-35m) are their biggest release I think. If it work like Sony Classic at Sony, they have a different deal with theater chain and get a smaller percentage of the tickets sales for them to accept to play their slates because they spent significantly less in the marketing budget than the studio branch. Would make little sense to use FS for a movie that would have a huge marketing budget instead of Fox and not just for that reason.

What I am suppose to see with 50 shades darker and is 146m opening weekend in relation with is Youtube views exactly ? Youtube views mean a lot (the correlation is strong and obvious) you can look it here: http://www.boxofficereport.com/trailerviews/owptayoutuberatios.html But that the target audience and type of movies need to be taken into account, like for reviews that do not mean anything for most big action movies opening were the trailers quality is much more important but can be everything for a 3 Billboard or Suburbicon. And that Jurassic Park franchise is not one with many thinks to talk about and a rabid active fanbase with SH movies and will do better at the box office relative to is pre-opening buzz&metrics and you would be right.

A Deadpool movie would have been made is a really different sentence than Deadpool would have been made (that infer a movie quite similar to the one we got, that what the person meant by we would not have got it under the current MCU model)

How can one know that ? Specially with the strong no R-rated movie close they have, that movie would have maybe never been made if someone has powerful at Fox like Kinberg didn't push it.

That would be a bit of a strange think to do, those specialty branch have a strong casting toward smaller budget movie that needed to be found, a distribution channel getting deal really different than Disney (much lower retention rate toward the studio) and that only distribute in the domestic Market (use Fox or someone else for others market), not necessarily appropriate for giant superheroes movies and you still need a worldwide Distribution. Fox Searchlight is an excellent source of content for their streaming service with possible award visibility that bring diversity to their library that could continue if they do not touch it (and if you do touch it, it become an ordinary studio and loose is edge usually), Searchlight could be like Miramax back in the days for Disney. Not sure if they are still interested in the movies business and their low return now, but probably they are, they know that crazy franchise run will not be permanent.

Not sure about easily I think they would come up with a subbrand like Marvel something, they had a Marvel Knight production company for a bit for example for Punisher and Ghost Rider movies. There is probably perceived values for Disney in Marvel/Star Wars/etc.. being considered in advance an extremely safe entertainment for all the family from very young kid to grand parents, even the most prude and less adventurous of them. If they would own Fox they would already have a channel for R-rated movie in place they can use also obviously at least for a while.

Disagree with that, we are both speculating obviously but I think it was visceral and automatic for many that talked about it, something they felt strange when it happened during the movie (asking themselve is the movie want me to find funny, find it to be some consequence to be on her smarthphone or what is this ?) Not something they come up with once the movie was finished, didn't like it for other reason but thought that was one.

Not sure if you are fully serious, Jurassic Park was a giant budget blockbuster about Dinosaurs and it is one of the best movies of all time, is it not normal for people to have expectation of it's return to be at least above average ?

I think they did, look how far they pushed far concept and hook storyline with making Batman fighting Superman or added IronMan to SpiderMan, I think they are well aware than more than 10 year's in the newest Superheroes craze that simply having a big name is not the end of everything, Hancock did much more than Batman Begin/X-Men/Superman a long time ago also. What is really important also, with how is made seem to be by who, C or D, if you are an MCU/DCU entry released by those machine you become a B pretty much automatically.

This and Disney stock price usually move with what happen with ESPN, there are much larger revenue flow factor in play than a particular movie one time for those giant company. Europacorp or Liongates stock prices, those move a lot on a movie over performing or under performing expectation.

And the share didn't raise when IT or Wonder Woman were making crazy business, a movie do not make giant conglomerate with over 30b in annual revenues stock price move on release usually, not even Star Wars Force Awaken.

The Academy Award for Best Director (officially known as the Academy Award for Best Directing) is an award presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). It is given in honor of a film director who has exhibited outstanding directing while working in the film industry. The rules when they are talking about achievement are saying: http://www.oscars.org/sites/oscars/files/90aa_rules.pdf Academy Awards of Merit shall be given annually to honor outstanding artistic and scientific achievements in theatrically released feature-length motion pictures, and to honor other achievements as provided for in these rules and approved by the Board of Governors. A think the achievement are mostly thought to be of artistic nature, not what with the press, society, business/box office/etc... I am not sure why we would say she achieved more than Rian Johnson, Nolan, Peele , Gerwig and many others even if we would take all those external to the movie achievement also. I think they are (her name and her movie is popping up in a lot of lists) http://www.imdb.com/event/ev0000464/2017?ref_=nmawd_awd_9 Rumored to have got a big payday and a sequel (unlike a long list of people that broke the bank on a franchise entry and were replaced for the sequels): http://variety.com/2017/film/news/patty-jenkins-wonder-woman-sequel-director-1202548413/

Coco ? Was it specially (if you are talking somewhere like in the UK that could be true, but it did SH business in that market) but domestic, does not seem to have been special: http://variety.com/2017/film/news/thor-ragnarok-tops-studios-tv-ad-spending-1202608687/

It is 3.76x is real budget, but yes close to 4x Production cost is an average around 35% of the total cost, bigger proportion the higher the budget is, bigger the box office bigger the total cost will be (more bonus, more residual, longer theatrical run, studio spending more on award season/home release to reward the movie, etc...) To give an idea of Captain philips cost breakdown: Ranked by biggest spending: DIRECT PRODUCTION COSTS (59,773) DTH MARKETING (52,933) ITH MARKETING (28,600) PARTICIPATIONS (26,210) RESIDUALS (8,370) OVERHEAD (7,170) Prints around 12m theatrical releases Shipping 5.5m Home video releases+ tv rekeases: 24m That goes up quickly, almost 100m spent in marketings/awards stuff worldwide during that movie life. Murder I would imagine will not spent on the award season like Captain Philips and probably had a smaller domestic marketing cost (smaller domestic run, already pre-built awareness being a franchise title), depending on how the book adaptation rights works and the above the line bonus, the total cost could be a bit smaller but really similar imo. Like I said I would expect the total cost to be between $175m to $235m

Yup, doing 47m after a 23m should be possible, considering Japan and France are still too open. Example of revenues from movie with the most similar box office performance: Title WorldWideBoxoffice TOTAL REVENUE 22 JUMP STREET $ 331,333,876.00 $ 288,020.00* PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS THE (2006) $ 307,325,633.00 $ 398,885.00 RESIDENT EVIL: AFTERLIFE $ 295,874,190.00 $ 252,220.00 SALT $ 293,503,354.00 $ 358,571.00 ELYSIUM $ 286,140,700.00 $ 297,934.00 CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF MEATBALLS 2 $ 274,325,949.00 $ 290,833.00 GROWN UPS (2010) $ 271,430,189.00 $ 356,322.00 MICHAEL JACKSON'S THIS IS IT $ 261,183,588.00 $ 351,146.00 GROWN UPS 2 $ 246,984,278.00 $ 272,767.00 Average: $ 285,344,639.67 $ 318,522.00 *Missing international TV, probably closer to 330m Movie doing around 300m WW with a 33/66% type of split tended not so long ago to generate around 275m to 325m in revenues. Example of total cost for movies with an around 55m budget and a world release (capt philips is probably a good comparable): Title PRODUCTION COSTS Total cost TALLADEGA NIGHTS $ (74,875.00) $ 234,916.00 XXX: STATE OF THE UNION $ (72,739.00) $ 186,505.00 EAT PRAY LOVE $ (72,514.00) $ 225,622.00 YEAR ONE $ (72,084.00) $ 161,391.00 SEVEN POUNDS $ (71,340.00) $ 206,811.00 ZATHURA: A SPACE ADVENTURE $ (70,501.00) $ 194,484.00 THAT'S MY BOY (2012) $ (69,887.00) $ 138,729.00 22 JUMP STREET $ (69,709.00) $ 203,802.00 STEP BROTHERS $ (68,402.00) $ 185,375.00 MICHAEL JACKSON'S THIS IS IT $ (66,268.00) $ 301,751.00 DID YOU HEAR ABOUT THE MORGANS? $ (64,407.00) $ 110,718.00 PRIEST (2011) $ (64,242.00) $ 155,552.00 CAPTAIN PHILLIPS $ (59,773.00) $224,781.00 PIRATES! BAND OF MISFITS THE $ (59,100.00) $ 166,830.00 BURLESQUE $ (57,696.00) $ 159,934.00 RV $ (57,449.00) $ 127,186.00 MONEYBALL (2011) $ (55,307.00) $ 169,480.00 BOUNTY HUNTER THE (2010) $ (55,142.00) $ 158,677.00 UNDERWORLD AWAKENING $ (54,839.00) $ 152,617.00 RESIDENT EVIL: AFTERLIFE $ (53,610.00) $ 189,940.00 HERE COMES THE BOOM $ (52,966.00) $ 133,623.00 ACROSS THE UNIVERSE $ (52,578.00) $ 102,285.00 PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS THE (2006) $ (50,763.00) $ 307,991.00 LITTLE MAN $ (46,067.00) $ 127,246.00 SEX TAPE $ (45,715.00) $ 115,255.00 VANTAGE POINT $ (45,167.00) $ 156,421.00 KARATE KID THE (2010) $ (45,051.00) $ 316,009.00 Average: $ (60,303.37) $ 181,627.07 Movie around that price tags getting big world release and star powers tended to cost around 175 to 235m total cost depending on people participation deal. Living a lot of margin here.

Lot of theater does not have 4 screens. That sound like a mixed up, like Empire said the conditions: theaters to reserve at least four weeks in the largest auditorium available exclusively 4 weeks for the largest screen seem to have become the 4 largest screen.

Can you explain what you mean by that, does theater late in release like that cannot simply decide to remove it/not renew it with any close that make that hard, do they need to do anything for that to happen ?

JL stories just begun too and most of the revenues for it are still ahead not behind (if it goes well), that movie repercusion (or lack off) on is sequels, spin-off, tv series, video games, home video business are so big. In 2016 a rare time theatrical got over 35% or more of the movies revenues because of the so-so 2015 and really strong 2016 at the theater: Revenus by segments: Theatrical product: Percentage Film rentals $2,180.00 39% Home video and electronic delivery $1,481.00 26% Television licensing $1,630.00 29% Consumer products and other $ 321.00 6% Total theatrical product $5,612.00 Video games: $1,606.00 What to do with that franchise main storylines must still be number one in many WB exec minds, the difference for them if Father Figures make 50m in profit instead of loosing 20m that one time is not nothing, but not that comparable with the DC universes global world franchise.

Testimony to Marvel building brand success. And other interesting comparison will be with the almost 10 year's old Hancock. Outside China: Total Lifetime Grosses Domestic: $227,946,274 36.5% + Foreign: $384,440,472 63.5% = Worldwide: $609,386,746 (did around 15m in China) It is not a given JL will do more than Hancock outside china. And 609m in 2008 dollar was around 697.7m adjuted for inflation (general purchassing power not movie ticket), JL would need to reach 800m WW to do as much. Prime Will Smith was huge, but still.... 0 brand/IP attached to that movie doing better than Justice League in this post Dark Knight/Avengers world ?

There is also the hard to give value to a brand/IP that is affected (I think that what happened here, the market diminished the value of that video game franchise), not necessarily about an entry making or loosing money. A stock value tend to turn around All the expected future profit amortized to today + current net actifs. The market diminished is expectation for the future entry sales.

If you look at the demography metric, GOTG was a bit different (more family and more woman over 25) and that seem to have continued and to go toward Thor 3. PostTrak updates their audience polls throughout the weekend and GOTG2 is still strong among older men and women over 25 with 32% and 26%, respectively. Guys under 25 rep 25% of all moviegoers, while females of that age are at 18%. All this means is that Marvel fans are aging up, and that those who were under 25 when the first movie opened crossed over. Strong positive reactions among all four demos with M25+ (94%), M25- (93%), F25+ (91%) and F25- (88%). Disney shows that 72% adults came out for GOTG2, 19% families, and 9% teens. Fifty-four percent of all GOTG moviegoers were Caucasian, 19% Hispanic, 12% African American and 9% Asian. Civil war: Audience make-up of Civil War per ComScore is 66% guys to 34% females, with 51% over 25. Ultron was more female at 38% and younger at 55% under 25. Ethnicity breakdown for Civil War was 48% Caucasians, 19% Hispanic, 18% African American and 16% Asian/other according to ComScore. And both quite different than say spider man: after guys under 25 (35%), men over 25 (24%) and ahead of women 25+ (19%).

Isn't that a bit of an exaggeration ? Get out, Dunkirk, The Post, etc... probably stuff the people that could ever consider watching the shows have heard of and are interested in. There is still a huge 11% of the US/Canada population that are frequent movie goers (12 time a year or more in theater) and the academy award were more watched than the game 7 of a Lebron James vs Curry/Durant playoff final and was still in the top 4 most watching event of the year: Rank Show Network Airdate Total viewers (millions) 1 Super Bowl 50 CBS Feb. 7 111.90 2 Super Bowl 50 postgame CBS Feb. 7 70.00 3 NFC Championship FOX Jan. 24 45.74 4 World Series Game 7 FOX Nov. 2 40.05 5 Academy Awards ABC Feb. 28 34.43 6 NFL Divisional Playoff NBC Jan. 16 33.73 7 Summer Olympics NBC Aug. 9 33.44 8 NFL Wild-Card Game CBS Jan. 9 31.23 9 Summer Olympics NBC Aug. 11 31.22 10 NBA Finals Game 7 ABC June 19 31.02 11 Summer Olympics NBC Aug. 7 29.78 12 Summer Olympics NBC Aug. 8 28.86 13 NBA Trophy Presentation ABC June 19 27.77 14 Summer Olympics NBC Aug. 14 26.75 15 Sunday Night Football NBC Dec. 11 26.50 16 Summer Olympics Opening Ceremony NBC Aug. 5 26.49 17 Summer Olympics NBC Aug. 12 26.45 18 College Football Playoff Championship ESPN Jan. 11 25.67 19 Summer Olympics NBC Aug. 13 25.52 20 NFL season opener NBC Sept. 8 25.19 Less and less people have tv or tv watching habit, ratings by capita will go down Not sure if caring about ratings and starting to consider what is popular in your choice match the definition of being fearless. Globes are trying to build back some legitimacy/credibility/prestige, going back to a stunt award like that would take them back no ?

Last time he expressed something like the Harris poll must be doing it wrong if it show up in a favorite movie list one. I would imagine the 300m+ it made at the box office after it's release is purely because of an other fad 3D, not a testimony that they movie was still extremely popular after 1998.

It is not the first time you say something like this and you never brought any data to support this........... Yes woman tend to grow up and not continue to play with their teenage toys as much as men do (that why that for a long time toys/franchise often liked to focus on boys more, they had a much larger windows, well some kids of the 70s still play Star Wars today), but why do you say that not one give a shit about Titanic went it made over 250m at the box office in the 2010s and still show up in the favorite movies, top 3 among adults, top 1 among millennial. It is the very favorite movie and rewatched all the time by many people.

Oh it worked so well, would not be surprised if they spend a fortune on music once again.