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Barnack

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Everything posted by Barnack

  1. How much of that increase would be the added service fee (or does the 110M is before them ?)
  2. I think you are misunderstanding what deadline and Tele are talking about when they are talking about break even point. That include merchandise, TV, home videos, airlines, soundtracks, etc... sales, What people do is that they expect the total cost at break even point to be around 540 to 650m (300m production, 150 to 200m WW theatrical release, 40m home video world release, 35m overhead, 15m residual and participation bonus that probably started for some of the biggest name, that is the big unknown making it impossible to really know. If they are at 60m at GP break that raise the bar quite a bit) If the movie is to make 45/55 from theatrical rental to non-theatrical revenues, it need to make between 245m to 292m from rental. something like 240m dbo, 350intl ,100m China (690m WW), would give it around 240*.53 +350*.4+100*.25 = 292.2m making it safe. See it like that Revenues: theatrical: 292.2m Non-Theatrical: 357m Total revenues: 650m Would cover expenses of: Production budget: 300m WW theatrical release cost (shipping, taxes, prints, marketings): 150-200m Home video world release: 40-45m Overhead: 35m Residuals: 15m Participation bonus: X ? (could be anywhere really, but there is a good list of people with potential taste of those revenues, Snyders, Affleck and so on) If the movie is close to 50/50 theatrical/non-theatrical revenues that would make it harder, no one is suggesting that Justice League would pay all is expense with an high 600m WW box office, that would be enough to pay for the releasing cost, but not for the rest, break even point talk always take into consideration all the expected usual revenues of a movies life times.
  3. I think it is going comedy/musical: However, this year has flipped that script. The ugly duckling genre has transformed into a glorious swan with a juicy competition in the works. Front-runners include: “Get Out,” “Lady Bird,” “Battle of the Sexes,” “The Big Sick” and “I, Tonya.” With other potential nominees “Downsizing,” “The Greatest Showman,” “The Disaster Artist,” “Baby Driver” and “Beauty and the Beast,” a vibrant category rises, frequently reflecting America’s cultural diversity. It is a strong year, if we assume Get Out, Lady Bird, Big Sick are in that leave 2 place for I Tonya, Baby Driver, Disaster artist, etc..
  4. From is point of view too, the guy has been making movies and probably never seen something like that surrounding a movie, DC Fans look extremely intense and actives with those properties, the amount of content the movie generated online, people getting in movies characters for Halloween, I could see someone close to it being overwhelmed and feeling it will leave some form of mark on the pop-culture.
  5. Is statement is probably true, out of the 700 movie that get a theatrical release and out of the 2,000 to 12,000 that does not achieve to get one every year, most are original and I imagine most are not has good has franchise movies. But that a bit on a unfair statement, they do not have close to 1% of the resources those movies have for the giant majority of them. So of course. Also the more original, the more of a risk, you must expect and "accept" more terrible movies than one that use a proven formula/story, those have less reason to ever reach the level of shit. Original or not is a good deal breaker at best (2 movies has fun, one created something new can rank it above if you are in the top time list...) but not more than that, if a movie redo something you saw too many time you will be bored and that boredom will already fully be integrated on your subjective experience if it does something you never seen it will already be there also, no need to add/remove points for it. Like you say no need to praise it just for being original or harsh when it is not (say the last Cinderella movie, was excellent).
  6. I think with a Disney vs Amazon vs Netflix type of landscape for content production/entertainment (if the trend continue), we could see movies starting to be way to get new account for those, theatrical chain starting to accept their conditions with less competition and more connected stuff between movies on screen and those tv series (that would have changed a little bit, now they are still extremely like we had on the tv format, big momentum, big union, still idea of selling them on TV in some markets will go away and episode like we know them with always the same runtime will have morphed a bit). Video games franchise being the other big IP yet to work. Romantic comedies, if something has incredibly good and fresh like the Big Sick didn't reach 50m it is hard to imagine a comeback anytime soon.
  7. Did we loved superheroes movies as kids ? Really never cared for them, Kids in the 80s/90s didn't really had much going on, except for a couple of Burton movies... Who would trade the current output for that one ? The Crow was nice.... but that is not enough vs this era. 85 91 Mystery Men Uni. $29,762,011 2,142 $10,017,865 2,136 8/6/99 86 106 Black Mask Art. $12,504,289 988 $4,449,692 979 5/14/99 87 119 Orgazmo Oct. $602,302 94 $210,073 94 10/23/98 88 71 Blade NL $70,087,718 2,389 $17,073,856 2,322 8/21/98 89 65 The Mask of Zorro Sony $94,095,523 2,515 $22,525,855 2,515 7/17/98 90 118 Steel WB $1,710,972 1,260 $870,068 1,260 8/15/97 91 77 Spawn NL $54,870,175 2,604 $19,738,749 2,536 8/1/97 92 61 Batman and Robin WB $107,325,195 2,942 $42,872,605 2,934 6/20/97 93 109 Turbo: A Power Rangers Movie Fox $8,363,899 2,113 $3,301,135 2,113 3/28/97 94 98 The Crow: City of Angels Mira. $17,917,287 2,423 $9,785,111 2,423 8/30/96 95 99 The Phantom Par. $17,323,326 2,163 $5,072,346 2,159 6/7/96 96 116 Barb Wire Gram. $3,793,614 1,312 $1,844,426 1,312 5/3/96 97 86 Mighty Morphin' Power Rangers Fox $38,187,431 2,409 $13,104,788 2,409 6/30/95 98 87 Judge Dredd BV $34,693,481 2,204 $12,291,536 2,204 6/30/95 99 38 Batman Forever WB $184,031,112 2,893 $52,784,433 2,842 6/16/95 100 115 Tank Girl MGM $4,064,495 1,363 $2,018,183 1,341 3/31/95 1 112 Blankman Col. $7,941,977 1,615 $3,715,480 1,615 8/19/94 2 90 The Shadow Uni. $32,063,435 1,769 $11,713,845 1,677 7/1/94 3 80 The Crow Mira. $50,693,129 2,119 $11,774,332 1,573 5/13/94 4 114 Batman: Mask of the Phantasm WB $5,617,391 1,506 $1,189,975 1,506 12/25/93 5 111 The Meteor Man MGM $8,016,708 1,060 $2,643,091 1,060 8/6/93 6 84 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles III NL $42,273,609 2,087 $12,419,597 2,087 3/19/93 7 100 Buffy the Vampire Slayer Fox $16,624,456 1,981 $4,515,541 1,959 7/31/92 8 44 Batman Returns WB $162,831,698 2,644 $45,687,711 2,644 6/19/92 9 82 The Rocketeer BV $46,704,056 1,903 $9,600,754 1,616 6/21/91 10 69 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles II NL $78,656,813 2,868 $20,030,473 2,868 3/22/91 11 88 Darkman Uni. $33,878,502 1,833 $8,054,860 1,786 8/24/90 12 50 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles NL $135,265,915 2,377 $25,398,367 2,006 3/30/90
  8. If that hold: FB: $18,118,111 weekend, 183,080,514 at that time, for a 234m run MJ2: $$18,857,547 weekend, 227,369,547 total, for a 281.6m run If JL continue to follow Fantastic beast (do has well relative legs than FB:) 15.8/18.1*(234-183)+196.5 = 241m If JL continue to follow MJ2: 15.8/18.85*(281.6-227.4)+196.5 = 242m Relative trend: Those 2 had a good -40 drop for the next weekend, but JL -61% is very similar to their 3 weekend drop and like them there is not really much competition on wide new release for a while, it could follow theirs trajectories or not too far from the 240m dbo from now on I guess. They did: 30m and 35m after December 15 and were better counter programming to the Star Wars competition I imagine.
  9. That can give an idea: http://www.theharrispoll.com/health-and-life/Gone_but_Not_Forgotten__Gone_with_the_Wind_is_Still_America_s_Favorite_Movie.html The most loved recent movies seem to be Titanic and Lords of the Rings for American adults. I would also imagine Avatar is up there among the most loved movies of the 2000s, but part of the legs were about the must see in theater 3D experience curiosity, making less obvious that it was because of the movie being loved than a Titanic, Star Wars or ET type of crazy legs phenomenon.
  10. Has been a very successful strategy for them, to manufacture made up rarity, they achieve to sell their classics at very high price, there is a general cost to ever be in a discount bin.
  11. Denis Villeneuve Polytechnique was released during the 20 year"s anniversary of the massacre and feminist group organised screening around the exact date of the event: http://www.tclcf.qc.ca/site/2009/11/projection-du-film-polytechnique.html Many had big issue and made pression for the movie to not be made and then not go on the real location if it was going to be made and so on, but it ended up being really tasteful. It really depend on how it is done (movie wise and release wise), Villeneuve pushed the non glorification of the killer by not ever mentioning is name (event in the generic), we can assume that the murder will not even be the main story in is movie (a bit like Inglorious Basterd not being about them at all) and the date being a cheap try to cash on the headline it will almost certainly provoke or wait and see what is the artistic angle and goal here before being offended.
  12. Very similar yes, probably will be a Canne festival release like Basterds: Inglorious Basterds release date: France 20 May 2009 (Cannes Film Festival) UK 23 July 2009 (London) (premiere) Germany 28 July 2009 (Berlin) (premiere) Canada 29 July 2009 (Fantasia International Film Festival) Australia 2 August 2009 (Melbourne) (premiere) Australia 2 August 2009 (Melbourne International Film Festival) Australia 3 August 2009 (Sydney) USA 10 August 2009 (Los Angeles, California) (premiere) Spain 17 August 2009 (Madrid) (premiere) Belgium 19 August 2009
  13. I was talking about AT&T buying Time Warner and all is division not Disney film studio, using a ridicule example to show that using that metric make little sense, the value of the conglomerate that happen to be owning a studio does not mean much, under that metric Sony == Fox. Has for the Film studio being WD key asset, maybe (for what it mean for their parks and other assets), but ESPN is much bigger and profitable: Disney not so long ago was ESPN and a bit of some other stuff in term of profits (ESPN was over 60% of Disney total annual profit I think).
  14. I am not sure what net worth mean, but if it is the company that own Disney studio and Warner Brother Studio market cap, does that mean if At&t buy them and that they become and over 300b market cap entity, WB start winning again ?
  15. http://www.metacritic.com/movie/the-dark-knight/critic-reviews http://www.theyshootpictures.com/gf1000_all1000films_table.php Dark Knight is considered by the world critics in the top 1000 movie of all time according to the sight and sound and other lists, just between Monthy Python and Robocop, just above Stanley Kubrick Spartacus Could be true that something the MCUs do a lot and it is maybe why they are so acclaimed by the critics. Are you being serious, did Wonder Woman took Wonder Woman less seriously and played it not straight, that the difference between BvS and Wonder Woman reception ?, with some meta humor and ashamed of itself ? That a good question, sometime it feel almost like it is because it got the tribal in/out group nature of sport following, and stuff like critics and box office are the only metrics they can use to fight about it (like points/wins) at sports.
  16. That would match empire ? Impression, Night at the museum did 250m and is first 6 days were: $55,718,681 if we do not count thursday preview has a day (or if there are not counting it as a day in those 6) was at $67.66m after 6 days
  17. So 6% to 10% of their total sales for Twilight / Potter total run were advanced sales ? If so yeah probably 2% of less for a movie like AB.
  18. Maybe fanboys and maybe that term trivially include that level of annoyingness But would you say Transformer fans or Hercule Poirot/Agatha Christie, GodFather's fan's, even the biggest one are equally annoying than the DC/Marvel ones ?
  19. I imagine conversation shift back more to non franchise stuff ? It is almost impossible, Comic book franchise (and more and more Star Wars) hit a very sweat spot to be able to sustain conversation all year long, that nothing else can IMO. If a movie is original, there is almost nothing to talk about before it release (except release date and who is making it), it is original, who knows ? If it is a book adaptation, while everything is pretty much known, can speculate on what will differ, how it will be told, but it limit talks to not much, they are mostly spoilers not speculation. Comic-Books is an adaption of so many sources and added with a bit of new elements that it can be endless speculation, a bit like playing Texas Hold-Em poker, it is a genre that show you a lot of what the studio has but keep 2 cards in is hands, like I think nothing else can. Will it be a mix of that and that story line, what it mean for the next 3 entries spin-off and the 2 direct sequels and so on. The comic book genre and even more the universe shared type of movie making is the genre that took the most advantage of social media/Internet talk, the giant amount of content that can follow a movie conversation. Not so long ago everything that would sold a movie needed pretty much to fit on is poster (that why actor's name, director, genre, etc... were so important), one 30s tv spot in the worst case scenario. Now it can be 2 or 3 long trailers (like 2 minutes) that people watch on youtube, it can be a complete giant conversation that only the CB shared universe are able to generate.
  20. 1) The Success of Christopher Nolan's Dark Knight Trilogy 2) The Success of the Marvel Cinematic Universe 3) The Mixed Reception of Man of Steel 4) The First Cinematic Interpretation of the Trinity 5) WB Holding All DC Film Rights 6) Batman v Superman Reviews 3 replies 72 retweets 424 likes I think some of the points are real in the sense that it brought up stuff from that fandom but is not the source or the why (like the 3/4/5/6 points) Already in 2012: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/rotten-tomatoes-dark-knight-rises-351124 Rotten Tomatoes Shuts Down 'Dark Knight Rises' Comments The movie reviews aggregator aims to protect its featured critics from venomous Batman fans. Rotten Tomatoes, the popular movie review aggregator, has suspended negative comments from reviews of The Dark Knight Rises, The Associated Press reports. The site's editor, Matt Atchity, said it was the first time user comments had been yanked from Rotten Tomatoes but that postings would be restored by week's end. http://newsfeed.time.com/2012/07/17/critic-faces-death-threats-over-bad-dark-knight-rises-review/ Some commenters approached their death threats with a wink, quoting Bane’s line to Batman that Fine’s punishment “must be more severe” and that they didn’t give him “permission to die” yet. Others were more direct in their hatred. One comment, since removed, kindly requested Fine “die in a fire.” Another from “Jake B,” showing remarkable restraint under the circumstances, just fantasized about beating Fine “with a thick rubber hose into a coma.” Way to take the high road, Jake. Several Rotten Tomatoes commenters vowed to destroy Fine’s website, Hollywood and FIne, and they appear to have succeeded, at least temporarily; the site was unavailable for much of the afternoon, no doubt thanks to the massive influx of server-crushing traffic. As of 3:00 PM, the site was back up, and Fine’s review (“The third Batman film in Nolan’s trilogy and also the weakest”) was still standing. The fanbases felt already quite different and more abrasive than the Pirates of the Caribbean, Middle Earth, Potters, Transformer, Twilight at that time. Did it become worst, were Green Lantern/Watchmen movie reception came with stories of Disney/critics like they often do now ? Those 2/3/4/5/6 points could participate to that, but it could be something in the material itself and those Nolan movies that attracted the type of people that would make death threats over a movie review that would not be true for a Pitch Perfect fans, that and being used too have critics not liking your stuff and not feeling the need to validate your hobby and be insecure about them and your maturity, like it is well pointed out in number in the no 1. Even with a 1 billion box office and a excellent 87% RT/78 MC score that fanbase could go berzeck and review aggregators website needed to take unprecedented measure because of it.
  21. General obsession of the orbit that the earth makes of the sun like Warren Buffet said about annual result of a company apply maybe even more to movies follower...... And if you are to be obsess about the earth completing your orbit, may as well wait for it, anything that make is list to be in december top list article or before televised award nomination roll out happen to gain "relevance" also tend to loose almost all is credibility.
  22. What percentage of a movie total box office run like Atomic Blonde pre-buy their ticket in advance ? I would think less than 4%.
  23. apparently last time 25dec was a monday was 2006. Legs for the 3 days / 4 days of movies opening that thursday: night at the musuem: 8.24 / 5.9 Rocky: 5.77 / 4.12 Good shepard: 6.04 / 4.22 We are marshall : 7.08 / 5.03 Average: 6.78 / 4.81
  24. I love the irony of someone at Forbes quoting a random someone on the Internet saying: Another, Barnack, noted that “I’m not so sure it is wise to take the words of people on the Internet over a corporation like Disney that bought serious world marketing expert studies, they would have not hired box office poison, especially if she cannot act, that make little sense.”
  25. Wait it is this true or a made up by an BOT use false link ?: Another, Barnack, noted that “I’m not so sure it is wise to take the words of people on the Internet over a corporation like Disney that bought serious world marketing expert studies, they would have not hired box office poison, especially if she cannot act, that make little sense.”
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