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Barnack

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Everything posted by Barnack

  1. Was it 4 weeks instead like a Star wars or Avengers ? Apparently the 3 week is now pretty much the norm for Disney instead of 2 and biggest screen would not be that surprising.
  2. Looking at them and Mamma Mia! sequel , seem you can survive a -56%/-62% with summer days, you need to stabilize weekend 3 too with some -40% to have good legs too. Specially in this case of really big previews has a share of the OW, the drop of the second weekend will make it look worst than it is I imagine.
  3. Not necessarily has much has you would think: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_films_in_the_United_Kingdom Sound films with over 10 million admissions Year Title Admissions (millions) Ref(s) BFI LUMIERE 1940 Gone with the Wind 35.00 [# 2] 1965 The Sound of Music 30.00 [# 28] 1938 Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs 28.00 [# 1] 1978 Star Wars 20.76 [# 37] 1948 Spring in Park Lane 20.50 [# 14] 1947 The Best Years of Our Lives 20.40 [# 11] 1968 The Jungle Book 19.80 [# 31] 1998 Titanic 18.91 18.95 [# 48][# 49] Rank Title Tickets Sold[1] Year[2] 1 Titanic 21,774,181 1997 2 Bienvenue chez les Ch'tis 20,489,303 2008 3 The Intouchables 19,490,688 2011 4 Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs 18,319,651 1938 5 La Grande Vadrouille 17,267,607 1966 6 Gone with the Wind 16,719,236 1950 7 Once Upon a Time in the West 14,862,764 1969 8 Avatar 14,775,990 2009 australia: 1 Gone with the Wind * PG MGM 1-May-40 $12.22 M 38.86 M 2 Crocodile Dundee M Hoyts 30-Apr-86 $47.71 M 8.98 M 3 Titanic * M Fox 18-Dec-97 $65.01 M 8.28 M 4 Avatar M Fox 17-Dec-09 $115.60 M 7.46 M Netherland: The most popular movies of all time in The Netherlands No. / Movie Title / Admissions (x 1.000) / Release Year 1 The Sound of Music 3.999 1965 2 Irma la Douce 3.627 1964 3 Titanic 3.405 1998 4 Turkish Delight - Turks Fruit (NL) 3.338 1972 5 Gone with the Wind 3.133 1939 I am not sure the gap (if one) is has big has you think, Gone is the biggest movie ever in some market not just the US and was very big pretty much everywhere.
  4. Maybe Kevin Hart agents/accountant for the next time they will enter negotiation with a studio on their next Dwayne Johnson collaboration.
  5. The fact Hateful 8 longer version just got a small release (and that is Netflix one is even longer) do sound like that possibly he still got some control over him. He said in an interview that he was receiving a lot of notes, you still can get a lot of note at those budget level with a producer like that involved.
  6. yes that was the point of the writer saying that it is not it's best OW at all, easily below those 2, but those 2 were quite the smash hit too.
  7. Lot of big films this year had either no a chance to reach it or were obviously going to be well over too. For movie that opened on something that looked could go either way on the line, like say Men In Black, they did mention it: https://deadline.com/2019/06/men-in-black-international-shaft-secret-life-of-pets-2-weekend-box-office-1202632705/ A movie like this cannot possibly get close to make money without the ancillary market like said above, imagine even a dream scenario of an 500M non China run, 160m/340m: Say around 220m in rental (53% domestic retention, average 40% oversea) 100-110m WW P&A (and it will get a 7-14m award season spending, but that far away it could be in the home ent spending line, but it is usually on that one) 90-95m Budget Overhead: 9M Participation Bonus: 40 to 65m That between 239 and 279m in spending.
  8. Yes that is exactly what matter, not it's ranking (I do not believe you do not understand and not agree with it, I am sure you do) And if it would have made 74M and second place, would have had an issue with the writer calling it a smash ? It did the minimum for the success bar to me, but so far is important here, need legs and intl. Smash would have been something 50M or an cinemascore/hold pattern making it look like it will be probably leggy. Well depends of it's WW, I would not call a movie a smash because of one weekend in one market like that writer no obviously (I am not trying to get clicks either). Django was a smash hit, not sure if this one at $120M would be (seem quite the Americana and I do not know how moneytizable movie are in 2019 to judge much and because the bonus structure is so important one movie like this cost and that we have absolutely no idea about them, we have little idea on it's cost, an Inglorious Bastard BO on a small 90M movie would be a huge smash, if it's actual cost raise above 150M not anymore).
  9. I imagine it is a mix for the global fantasy world for the cowboy stunt double and an way to express just how good the Pitt character is, if he can beat up Lee he will not fear a band of hippies. Why does he make sound like a stupid teenager with the hands comment ? Really not sure (probably part of being seen / fantasy of the cowboy stunt double, it is told from him re-living it-dreaming about it while working on a roof, it did not probably didn't really occur like that in "reality")
  10. So if it would have made 70M, have over 3.15x multi with a 35/65 dbo/intl split it would not have been a smashes because it was not 1st place on it's OW ? Focus on weekend ranking in this franchise world make not much sense anymore (I feel like this is why Colin Ferrell got so overrated, because he was opening movies number 1 has if it was still a relevant metric) Will see how much of a success it end up to be (if one at all), but it will have absolutely nothing to do with the movie not being able to beat Lion King second weekend (come-on now you know that is just ridiculous).
  11. Really not sure why 2nd place is relevant here, specially when the first place in an above 70M monster family movie.
  12. Considering that they got out of being a puppet to Britain as soon as 1947, that seem extremely improbable that the scenario isn't different. It is hard to imagine Ghandi non violent technique being efficient against the German Nazi or Japan Empire regime. Apparently yes, the latest was if the axis won the War Japan would have owned India/Afghanistan, with Germany owning the part that became Pakistan.
  13. Considering the creation of independent India in 1947 vs the alternative division of India between Germany and Japan, seem like an rather easy choice no ? That did sound strange to me, didn't the allied had a vast program trying to deprogram Nazy in germany (that failed on the first generation) ?
  14. Yes I am really not sure who would both know that information and tell it to the press, I would not imagine bonus structure are need for tax credits/insurance coverage, etc... not a information known by nearly has many people than a movie budget. Not sure why Rothman would lie about it either and it would be something of a new for Tarantino to not get them, but why lie about something like that.....
  15. That 120M if the movie generate more than $400M in revenus (usually some cost tend to be removed of what is called gross, like say residual or some mini of the top, when it is not just 20% of the dvds studio revenues that are counted has the gross like in the VHS days and that continued for a long time), not sure the box office is used in the calculation of a first dollar gross bonus (maybe they kick it higher if it reach some plateau too), it tend to be about gross revenues. If they make over $400M in revenues 95M budget 120M in bonus 100M P&A Over $85M left to go around to pay residual, cover overhead and home media release cost. Django was expected to make $256M in ancillaries if it reached 430m WW at the box office. In contract Gross Receipts is defined something like that: (i) All money actually Received by the studio from the following: (a) Licenses by studio directly to exhibitors of the right to exhibit the Picture in any and all languages or versions, by any of the following means or methods: (1) in theaters to audiences who pay an individual charge for admission to such theater (including reissues), (2) by means of free over-the-air television, so-called “basic cable” television program services such as USA Network, or pay television program services such as HBO, (3) by traditional non-theatrical means (i.e., for public exhibition of the Picture other than in theaters, such as in schools, military bases, airlines, ships at sea and/or prisons) and/or (4) by means of pay-per-view television. (ii) An amount equal to Twenty Percent (20%) of Home Entertainment Gross Proceeds. “Home Entertainment Gross Proceeds” means all money Received by Columbia from the exercise of Home Entertainment Rights, less the total of: (a) the cost of preparing the masters used to manufacture Video Devices and/or used for the exercise of Video-on-Demand Rights, (b) any and all credit allowances, adjustments, rebates and/or refunds relating to the exercise of Home Entertainment Rights, including without limitation so-called price protection, slotting fees and the like, and (c) reasonable reserves for returns, exchanges and bad debts. (iii) In respect of the exploitation of soundtrack recordings, music publishing, and merchandising in connection with the Picture, I think it is more common to get 100% of Home Ent now (wasn't Tom Cruise was the first to get it on some Mission Impossible and it made a really big noise ?) That can give an idea of gross receipt structure: https://stephenfollows.com/much-tom-cruise-paid/ On that Tom Cruise got 15M + 15% of all the revenues, but Dvd revenues was calculated has 35% of the worldwide home video gross revenues, the other participant also got first dollar gross but the revenues calculation did let the studio remove 15% of them off the top and they got the usual smaller 20% of the Home Video revenues in their formula. Singer got 10%, McQuarrie 4% (so 30% gross for the Valkyrie movie), both share raised after Break even. Even for gross first dollar deal, revenues are calculated using a pre-determined formula and usually not actual gross revenues.
  16. Reporting about this have been a bit all over the place, that show how much the rumors of 25% first dollar going to Quentin were quite something (30% would be a big amount of point, so 25% going to a single entity for that kind of assemble movie would have been quite the madness) A 30% pool for everybody do make much more sense (a bit like a Transformer movie back in the day), but Rothman in a interview said there was no first dollar point on this and that would be a strange lie to make. That break-even figure sound absolutely ridiculous to , Django Unchained had a very similar cost structure and $100 million of profits was made from it despite around 30% going in bonus. If you need over $400M to break even, when do you get an interesting return (considering how much of the profit is shared) at $530-550M.... if not 600-700M ? For a movie like that !?
  17. Was the biggest foreign market for Schindler List as well
  18. IF TLK would have been your Toy Story 4/Incredible 2 type of reaction, how much do you think it could have made ?
  19. ? Is it really an assumption by now ? https://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=bbjunglealice.htm Why did a significantly worst received movie out opened it, if it was not more popular ?
  20. Really not sure to follow here, it is there a under 504M dbo, under 1.26b WW prediction going on for Lion Kings ?
  21. Billions dollar movie almost always cost a lot, if they are not franchise giant budget affair they were usually involving still some IP rights (a la Bohemian Rhapsody) or were made by big name producer-director-writer-actor with large participation bonus (the Cameron-Nolans-James Wan, etc...). And promotion do tend to follow budget but it is usually far from linear, any billion dollar movie will end up having had a giant world marketing spending on it. I.E. a $300M budget movie release will not necessarily cost 6 times has much has a $50M budget one, the bigger budget one do tend to get much more product placement opportunities for example. To go concrete, Captain Phillips Net Budget: $59.773M world theatrical releasing spending: $98.88M The same year After Earth Net Budget: $147.797M world theatrical releasing spending: $103.4M How much the studio believe in the movie and push it, for how long and how large it play, etc... determine a lot of the cost not just the budget, one difference it is much harder to dump a large title, but if a small title make a huge amount, usually it had a lot of releasing power. Taking Your Star is born/Bohemian Rhapsody example according to deadline estimate, WW P&A around $110M: https://deadline.com/2019/03/a-star-is-born-box-office-profit-2018-1202580798/ https://deadline.com/2019/04/bohemian-rhapsody-box-office-profit-2018-freddie-mercury-queen-rami-malek-1202586151/ That significantly less than the $150M a Disney tentpole is estimated to get (the promos are more than twice has big, but they have a lot of partner, start already with giant awareness before the first dollar is spent and maybe deadline underestimate but still, give an idea): https://deadline.com/2019/04/incredibles-2-box-office-profits-1202586957/ https://deadline.com/2019/04/black-panther-goes-from-tentpole-to-cultural-milestone-no-2-in-2018-most-valuable-blockbuster-tournament-1202587563/ But a difference than the first $100M more at the BO comfortably more than take care of. Disney Studio Entertainment margin of profit it's last few year's have been absolutely ridiculous, without even taking into account their impact on the park&resort, Media networks, consumer products. https://www.thewaltdisneycompany.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/2018-Annual-Report.pdf Studio Entertainment Revenues Spending Operating income Income % of Revenues Income in % of spending Disney - 2017 $8,379 $6,024 $2,355 28% 39% Disney - 2018 $9,987 $7,007 $2,980 30% 43% Before that, Rothman-Gianopulos run at Fox (from Titanic to Avatar) was said to be the best profits margin pretty much ever, often achieving high 1x% I think.
  22. Isn't it between Car and Toy Story ? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_media_franchises
  23. Well the story is without a doubt very much well under control and I am not numerous in my how good anything Favreau be ? I did bought some of the hype of people that have seen footage and praising it has some of the most impressive ever (Collider type people for example)
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