Ms Lady Hawk
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Posts posted by Ms Lady Hawk
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I need help understanding the akvalley numbers as opposed to movietickets. On movietickets, the gap between Endgame and Pika has been widening since yesterday. On akvalley, although there has been movement, the gap has remained the same since yesterday. Both are 24 hour trackers, so I don’t see why their measurements are so different. Maybe more people are buying tickets for Endgame on movie tickets since yesterday.
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Deadline over-predicts Endgame every Friday. If it really went up 135% to 8 million, then it is making more than 30 million. The drop on Sunday, will not be too steep, since there is a Canadian holiday on Monday.
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3 minutes ago, Porthos said:
And for the folks wondering on the sidelines, this is why studios love/prefer forecasters who put out conservative estimates. Just so it can seem like they 'beat' expectations by a huge percentage.
(In other words, that 30m-35m range was laughably low)
I don’t know about the box office experts like you on this site, but I find estimates without quoting the actual numbers on which they are basing the estimates kind of useless.
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Endgame actual- 3.42
Daily Domestic Chart for Thursday May 16, 2019
Movie Gross % Change Theaters Total Gross Days Previews John Wick: Chapter 3 — Parabellum $5,900,000 $5,900,000 - (1) Avengers: Endgame $3,416,496 -10% 4,662 $741,394,870 21 - (2) Pokémon: Detective Pikachu $2,720,000 -11% 4,202 $69,186,152 7 -
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29 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:
So ENDGAME's drop is pretty good comparatively to the rest of the top 10.
It also had the lowest increase on Tuesday. Still think it will do 30+ this weekend. Endgame seems like more of a weekend movie. It kicks ass on weekends, especially Saturdays.
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John Wick 3 has taken the lead.
Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours Since: 2019-05-14 20:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago) RANK PERCENT TICKETS MOVIE 1 24.902% 17113 John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum 2 24.436% 16793 Avengers Endgame (2019) 3 18.373% 12626 Pokémon Detective Pikachu 4 03.577% 2458 The Hustle (2019) 5 03.059% 2102 Fandango Early Access Rocketman 6 02.886% 1983 Aladdin (2019) 7 02.856% 1963 Long Shot 8 02.318% 1593 Avengers Endgame (2019) 9 02.184% 1501 The Intruder (2019) 10 01.420% 976 Poms 11 01.361% 935 A Dogs Journey 12 00.998% 686 Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
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John Wick 3 really picking up steam. Endgame will drop less than Pikachu today. It is gaining against DP when compared to yesterday.
Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours Since: 2019-05-14 14:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago) RANK PERCENT TICKETS MOVIE 1 25.453% 17951 Avengers Endgame (2019) 2 20.750% 14634 Pokémon Detective Pikachu 3 20.642% 14558 John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum 4 04.187% 2953 The Hustle (2019) 5 03.265% 2303 Long Shot 6 02.779% 1960 The Intruder (2019) 7 02.680% 1890 Aladdin (2019)
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5 minutes ago, cdsacken said:
52.6% on it's 4th weekend.
Did 29.4 million
After June 17th it was at 664.35. In the next 13 weeks it made 13.4 million. The very next weekend it dropped 52.5% and it died a slow death after that.
What do you expect for Endgame this weekend? I would think ~32 would be a fair number.
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Went to see Pikachu and it just wasn’t my type of movie. My son fell asleep and I was bored. Maybe if I were a video game fan who played Pokémon, I would have enjoyed it so much more.
I wonder what the word of mouth will be on this movie, but I feel that you had to have a working knowledge of the various Pokémon characters to truly get the most out of the movie. 4/10
With all that being said, the box office performance seems fine to me thus far. As someone mentioned, this is the only place where people seem to be acting as if the movie performed poorly.
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12 minutes ago, sfran43 said:
La LLorona turned a nice little profit for WB.
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11 minutes ago, Menor said:
Exactly, IW doesn't ask the viewer to sympathize with Thanos at all. Giving him his arc is about making him that much better of a villain, not about making you root for him
I don’t think we are meant to root for Thanos, just like Star Wars fans aren’t meant to root for Vader. Thanos is a nuanced character. He isn’t a villain in the traditional sense, wherein the purpose would be annihilating everything unless they served him. After all, Endgame shows what happened to the stones. It isn’t what a typical villain would have done with them.
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7 minutes ago, TServo2049 said:
To me, Thanos is not sympathetic or an “anti-hero.” What he is, though, is a villain who clearly believes himself the hero of his own story and acts it. That is really hard to do well.
For example, I don’t know if we’re supposed to believe that what he thinks is love for Gamora truly is. We would not consider killing oud adopted daughter against her will to be an act of love. People who complain about Gamora’s death say we’re supposed to sympathize with Thanos, but I never get that impression watching the movie. The impression I get is that his moral compass is utterly warped, but he at least has one in his own mind.
I disagree. I think he is an anti-hero, because his plan was not borne of nefarious intentions in Infinity War. He really believed that he was serving the universe and that all beings would benefit from population reduction to the point where poverty and other problems that ensue from densely populated areas would end. He killed Gamora for what he viewed as a higher purpose and it was not easy for him. The fact that Gamora didn’t realize he loved her until the stone keeper told her, makes him a tragic figure. He loved, but he was so driven by his purpose that he didn’t show it.
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Just watched Infinity War again on Netflix. This was my third time seeing it, but first time since it ended its theatrical run.
Anyways, Infinity War is truly the main reason why Endgame exploded. It’s almost easy to forget how brilliantly Thanos is written. The depth of the villainous character is what has always succeeded for Star Wars. In Infinity War, you see an anti-hero who is capable of love, but supremely guided by his conviction/purpose.
The last scene between Spider-Man and Tony is really heartbreaking. I have seen Endgame twice and loved it. I cannot decide on which film is better. They are different but both very entertaining in their own right.
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2 minutes ago, baumer said:
So end game is 300 million away from passing Avatar. It's got at least 130 million more here which would make it around 170 more overseas is what it means. It should pass it but it's a lot closer or tighter than I thought it would be.
It may be a nail biter. Fun to watch. China will be completely out of it in two/three weeks too. At this point, I would still bet on Endgame ending at about 2.82-2.85B. Goes without saying how epic a run we are witnessing.
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7 minutes ago, sfran43 said:
Disney going with same drop as Infinity War seems very fair.
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16 minutes ago, cdsacken said:
To me that would indicate End Game would do just fine. Pika maybe not so much. Hustle was so horrendous on WOM I don't see how it gets a bump but maybe Saturday was that bad?
64-65 for me so I'm not much different. Also dependent upon 27.5 not being revised down.
Regardless, I agree with Ladyhawk your 63 call was very good. Next week IW plummeted so it should at least match, probably beat as DP did merely ok.
Although, Pika is arguably the more family friendly movie between the two, scanning the theaters in NYC this morning, Endgame is slaughtering Pika. Of course, it is early, so there isn’t much in the way of accounting for walk-ups and late bookings. Just going on seats already sold, one could guess that either Endgame has a relatively soft drop or Pika has a huge drop. This is anecdotal, so we shall see.
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1 minute ago, baumer said:
Looking back last year on mother's Day Sunday, films that had family audiences and or a strong female presence or theme actually increased on Sunday. I don't know what that means for Pikachu but I would imagine the hustle will probably increase on Sunday. I'm a little bit surprised that the hustle actually had a B- CS. That's way more generous than it deserves.
-28% Sunday seems about right for EG.
So a 62-64 weekend looks about right.
I noticed that too. Looks like you were spot on with your 63M prediction for Endgame after the Thursday number. At the time, some including me believed that was way too low. In any event, Pika had a nice opening. Can’t blame the film for people over estimating it.
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The reason why I lean toward Rth’s 16 is just based on eyeball test/anecdotal evidence. I did not think Endgame was outperforming Pika’s true Friday by 4 million. Pika’s shows were more filled, but Endgame had more shows. I thought Endgame was ahead by 1-2 million. Maybe Charlie is right, but my gut tells me Rth is correct.
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If Deadline is right about the Friday numbers, then I don’t understand why we are even questioning 70M+ for Endgame and 55-60M for Pika. Am I missing something? I took a look at Mother’s Day on BOM for the past few years. Most movies saw great Sunday holds with small decreases or in many cases increases.
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2 minutes ago, JB33 said:
Do you think the $18M reported by Deadline is possible? Really rooting for the $70M+ OW for Endgame.
I think so. Why not? I think Pika could be about 1-2 million behind it though. 70M definitely possible for Endgame. If the number is truly 18 million, then I would say more likely than not.
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Just eyeballing the AMC app in NYC, if I had to venture a guess, I would say that Endgame will win Friday just counting Pika’s pure Friday. However, I would be surprised if it were by the 4 million Deadline predicted. It seems to me that Pika has more occupants per show. Endgame is very respectable in that respect as well. The difference is the sheer number of shows that Endgame has. I feel comfortable in saying that Endgame will win the weekend by a comfortable margin, but Friday will be the closest day.
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That 18 million would be an excellent jump for Endgame. However, Deadline estimated 44 million for Endgame last Friday and they were off by about 4 million. Good number for Pika too. I prefer to wait for our Asgardians. Trust them over Deadline.
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I am interested in the Friday number for Pika. We’ve all been spoiled by Endgame. If Pika manages 50-60M opening, that would be a good opening. Just because the movie doesn’t over perform doesn’t make it a disappointment.
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Weekend Thread: Weekend Actuals - John Wick: Chapter 3 $56.82M | Avengers Endgame $29.97M | Detective Pikachu $25.10M
in Numbers and Data
Posted
If these numbers hold, would be really good for, John Wick and Endgame. Meh for Pika. Certainly won’t hit 24 million with 5.7 Friday.