Ephemeris

Tuesday-Wednesday drops last week -> this week, for last week's top 7 on Wed: Black Panther: 29.1 -> 16.2 Pacific Rim: 47.1 -> 26.7 I Can Only Imagine: 30.2 -> 19.8 Sherlock Gnomes: 32.9 -> 17.0 Wrinkle in Time: 27.5 -> 18.1 Tomb Raider: 39.9 -> 24.3 Love, Simon: 23.3 -> 13.5 Not sure why, but it looks like Wednesday was inflated. With that in mind, it makes sense that drops are bigger on Thursday.

That's because the-numbers doesn't update Fri-Sat-Sun at the exact same time. They change Fri-Sat-Sun from estimates to actuals one by one. PRU's Friday+Saturday actuals + its Sunday estimate = $27,877,640, which was the number you were looking at. (It was also still green to tell you that it was not the actual)

OS weekend was $1.4M higher than estimated, OS total $1.48M higher: Country (click to view chart) Rank Days in Wknd Weekend Gross % Change Screens/ Theaters Change / Avg. Gross-to-Date Week # FOREIGN TOTAL 4 3 $14,302,314 -54.3% 57 - $250,918 $607,880,860 6 http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&view=byweekend&wk=2018W12&id=marvel2017b.htm Good hold again, dropped only 39.7% outside of China this weekend.

That twitter account needs to learn how to round numbers correctly.

Boxofficemojo has a "Foreign" tab for every movie, where you can select "by weekend", and click on a date to see the weekend numbers for that date. Here's Black Panther's last OS weekend: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&view=byweekend&wk=2018W11&id=marvel2017b.htm It's great for making comparisons as well, since you can easily find OS weekend numbers(and totals after any amount of weeks) for pretty much any movie, and calculate their OS weekend multipliers, etc... Looks like you've been missing out on some very useful info! EDIT: something to watch out for when using those OS weekend pages is that the dates for the weekend numbers aren't always correct; in some cases there is a systematic error. In 2017 for example, every date was off by one week. When it says Oct 20-22 for 2017, it's really Oct 27-29 instead, etc. So when looking at older movies, just make sure you check if the date is actually correct instead of relying blindly on the it, since that date may not be the right one.

According to boxofficemojo, the OS weekend actual was $31,309,591, so it would have made about $19.25M OS-China for the weekend. Looks like the OS weekday numbers came in a lot higher than estimated, so a big part of the $3M increase from the estimated OS total did not go into the weekend number, but into the weekdays.

How did you arrive at that number? It's not the domestic drop(-34.7%), not the WW drop(59.3%), not the OS drop(-69.2%), and not the OS-China drop(44.7% using Maoyan's China numbers($12.05M China weekend)).

Yeah, this. Ragnarok got a very noticeable boost when the Infinity War trailer came out. The trailer came out early on Wednesday morning, and Ragnarok's Thursday number that week was actually almost as big as its discount Tuesday number that week(Tues-$1,156,251, Thurs-$1,148,833), while every other wide release saw a sizeable Tuesday-Thursday drop. And it's obviously not because people were going to the theater to watch the trailer... They went to the theater to see Thor: Ragnarok. The Infinity War trailer got massive amounts of attention and it had Thor in it. It's not just a coincidence that Ragnarok acted very unusually right after the trailer came out. There's a very obvious explanation. This was a rare situation(possibly even an unprecedented one, does anyone know?) where the next instalment of a huge franchise got a trailer hundreds of millions of people watched, and a very well known character who was featured in that trailer, had a movie that was still in theaters at the same time.

OS-China has not been ahead of domestic at any point in its run except for weekday numbers, and according to that tweet you quoted, it actually made less OS-China than it made domestically on Monday(13.9-4-6.1=3.8M OS-China). Every week so far, it has grossed more domestically than OS-China, and I don't see that changing anytime soon now that it has run out of new markets to open in. Deadpool's 4th OS weekend multiplier would get it another $64M OS-China. Maybe it beats that, but $130M more OS-China is more than twice that, and surely that would be way too much to ask... Imo, Ultron's WW number definitely seems out of reach unless something incredible happens. (hmm, maybe that's not the best choice of words since Black Panther's run already is "something incredible" happening, but you get my point, lol)

Yes, Victoria Day in Canada boosted those numbers slightly (hence why those 3 also all dropped on Tuesday that week instead of increasing).

TD YD Title (Click to View) Studio Daily Gross % +/- YD / LW Theaters / Avg Gross To-Date Day 1 1 Thor: Ragnarok BV $18,284,000 +160% -61% 4,080 $4,481 $173,273,707 8 2 - Daddy's Home 2 Par. $10,880,000 - - 3,575 $3,043 $10,880,000 1 3 - Murder on the Orient Express (2017) Fox $10,750,000 - - 3,341 $3,218 $10,750,000 1 4 2 A Bad Moms Christmas STX $4,115,000 +116% -25% 3,615 $1,138 $32,478,626 10 5 3 Jigsaw LGF $1,150,000 +129% -45% 2,651 $434 $32,084,093 15 6 6 Tyler Perry's Boo 2! A Madea Halloween LGF $644,000 +223% -47% 1,900 $339 $44,494,463 22 7 5 Geostorm WB $460,000 +102% -44% 1,685 $273 $30,538,892 22 8 9 Happy Death Day Uni. $453,000 +159% -42% 1,564 $290 $54,094,605 29 9 4 Blade Runner 2049 WB $420,000 +79% -31% 863 $487 $87,011,297 36 10 - Lady Bird A24 $390,000 +909% +260% 37 $10,541 $922,080 8 11 10 Let there be Light ADC $367,650 +135% -27% 773 $476 $5,192,544 15 12 8 Only The Brave Sony $315,000 +77% -44% 1,207 $261 $16,438,916 22 - 7 Thank You for Your Service (2017) Uni. $283,000 +56% -58% 1,348 $210 $8,493,390 15 - - My Little Pony: The Movie LGF $151,000 +336% +77% 592 $255 $21,162,241 36 - - Marshall ORF $131,093 +141% -2% 596 $220 $8,175,451 29 - - Kingsman: The Golden Circle Fox $130,000 +99% -45% 421 $309 $99,121,408 50 - - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri FoxS $102,828 - - 4 $25,707 $102,828 1 - - The Mountain Between Us Fox $95,000 +134% -28% 403 $236 $29,270,921 36 - - Last Flag Flying LGF $76,787 +418% +553% 32 $2,400 $146,560 8 - - Same Kind of Different as Me PFR $64,000 +34% -56% 296 $216 $6,031,382 22 - - Goodbye Christopher Robin FoxS $56,000 +35% -44% 196 $286 $1,399,338 29 - - Battle of the Sexes FoxS $26,000 +74% -47% 103 $252 $12,411,061 50 - - Suburbicon Par. $24,000 -76% -93% 281 $85 $5,687,427 15 - - A Question Of Faith PFR $18,000 +1,023% +504% 30 $600 $2,399,322 43 - - The Stray Purd. $6,000 +659% +54% 34 $176 $1,540,983 36 http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?view=1day&sortdate=2017-11-10&p=.htm

If it had the same OW/1stWednesday ratio as Thor 2, the number would have been $5.1M instead of $6.1M. A big Tuesday bump followed by a big Wednesday drop really doesn't tell us much other than that Tuesday was inflated. I'd wait for the weekend numbers before jumping to any conclusions.

Why? You seem to be confusing the issue people had with some of your earlier posts. What I(and I believe others as well) disagreed with was not the claim that it would have a multiplier of about 2.5x(that seems pretty reasonable), but the claim that it was "not that well liked by the GA"(that doesn't make sense given the abundant evidence that it was very well liked). You seem to be mixing up legs and WOM as if they're synonymous, but they obviously aren't. WOM is just one part of the puzzle called legs. And just to clarify: I'm not calling anyone a "Marvel hater". I'm just making a logical argument.

Not sure where statements like this come from. Every reliable metric suggests that it's very well liked by the general audience. While it is too early to say how good legs will be, we already have enough evidence to say that WOM is good. But good WOM and good legs are obviously not mutually inclusive. Other factors are having a negative impact on its legs(fan rush, being a threequel, etc) so it's going to be frontloaded to a degree, but that's not evidence that WOM is bad.

You can't dispute them, but you can put them into context. And context matters. A lot. Numbers can be quite meaningless without it.

Are people forgetting that multipliers depend on so much more than WOM? Seems weird to claim a movie doesn't have good WOM based on the multiplier alone, when every other reliable metric indicates good WOM. Movies can have good WOM/reviews and still be frontloaded you know... Acting like it didn't matter for Civil War doesn't make sense. If Civil War had terrible WOM it would have joined BvS in the <2 multipliers club. Looks like not having terrible WOM/reviews still added $50-100M to its domestic total.

You're acting like it's harder to have a good Friday-Saturday hold outside of the summer. But the complete opposite is true. Schools deflate Fridays, which makes a good Saturday hold easier to achieve outside of the summer. Holding as well as WW on Sunday is much harder outside of the summer, while holding as well on Saturday is much easier.

You don't expect it to drop 56%+? TBH, I'd be surprised if Ragnarok dropped less than 60% in its 3rd weekend. Don't forget that its 2nd Friday will be inflated by Veteran's Day. Even Doctor Strange dropped 59% after its 2nd Friday was inflated by Veteran's Day, and it had much weaker competition. On its 3rd weekend DS faced Fantastic Beasts which opened to $74M. Justice League will open bigger and it'll have more overlap with Ragnarok's audience than FB. Ragnarok is also a sequel while DS was not. Dropping less than 56% would in its 3rd weekend would be incredible imo, considering the circumstances.

But wouldn't it make sense for a movie that was shot in Australia with an Australian lead and another big Australian star(Cate Blanchett) in a major role to have a lower US/AUS ratio than Doctor Strange, which had none of those things going for it in Australia though? The Dark World's US/AUS ratio was 11.9x, while Doctor Strange's ratio was 13.1x. With AU$9-10M, using DS's ratio would give USD118-131M, while using TDW's ratio gives USD107-119M. It's quite a big difference.