Ephemeris

That doesn't matter to those calculations though. It has already been taken into account. That was the whole point of his spreadsheet. Yes, I already said in my post that using weekend multipliers take too much effort. But you can still use week multipliers like I did in my post, and that would improve the results.

That Monday for FF8 was not a normal Monday; it was Labour Day. That's why FF8 dropped almost 70% on Tuesday. It also faced GotG2 the following Friday, which made it drop nearly 40% from Thursday. Meanwhile IW wasn't facing any strong new competition, so it could increase from Thursday instead of dropping. That's how IW's 4th weekend could beat FF8's 4th weekend, and how it could make a bit more than FF8 did after that Monday. However, Doraemon is now getting released on that Friday so that probably changes things a bit... Not sure how big that movie will be in China, so I have no idea how much it would affect IW. Maybe others in this thread who know more about it than me can give an idea on how much it would cut into IW's numbers.

OS weekend came in $1.82M higher than estimated, OS total came in $2.83M higher than estimated: Country (click to view chart) Rank Days in Wknd Weekend Gross % Change Screens/ Theaters Change / Avg. Gross-to-Date Week # FOREIGN TOTAL 2 3 $86,223,210 -69.4% 55 - $1,567,695 $1,221,530,515 4 Total Lifetime Grosses Domestic: $595,813,862 32.8% + Foreign: $1,221,530,515 67.2% = Worldwide: $1,817,344,377

Some constructive criticism on that, if you don’t mind: Using percentage of total gross up to a certain point is not a very good way to compare legs, since it doesn't take into account how good legs have been up until this point; one movie could have made 10% of its total gross this weekend while IW got 3.35%. Using % of total gross completely ignores that. It doesn’t take into account at how much harder it would be for IW to add another 10% to its final gross compared to that other movie. For that reason, using multipliers is the way to go when comparing legs imo. While you may not have weekend numbers, you could use week multipliers instead without putting in a huge amount of extra effort. Using your spreadsheet: Avengers was at $604,485,663 after last weekend and $685,415,461 after this weekend, so it made $80,929,798 in the last 7 days. Age of Ultron was at $582,351,230 after last weekend and $640,336,480 after this weekend, so it made $57,985,250 in the last 7 days. Infinity War was at $858,963,242 after last weekend and an estimated $916,200,000 after this weekend, so it made an estimated $57,236,758 in the last 7 days. Final totals outside of China according to boxofficemojo(guessing you already what they made in Japan up until their 4th weekends?): Avengers: $809,155,078 Age of Ultron: $706,287,826 So if IW has the same week multiplier as those, it would end up with: Avengers: 916,200,000+((809,155,078-685,415,461)/80,929,798)*57,236,758 = $1,003.7M Age of Ultron: 916,200,000+((706,287,826-640,336,480)/57,985,250)*57,236,758 = $981.3M This doesn't yet take into account that IW got hit pretty hard on the weekend compared to the weekdays, which means its bound to drop more than usual on the next few weekdays... So if we used weekend multipliers instead, these numbers would be lower(and that's probably more realistic), but I barring unusual weeks like this(where there's a disparity between weekday and weekend drops), using the full week multiplier would give a good estimate. I think $970M OS-China would be a realistic target atm.

Looking at other MCU movies though, it looks like Avengers was an outlier with really strong OS legs. You've giving IW a near 3.5x 4th OS weekend multiplier. 4th OS weekend multipliers(without China) for recent May MCU openers: CW 2.35($19.3M weekend), AoU 2.67($37.3M weekend), GotG2 2.79($20.3M weekend). Compared to those, giving IW 3.5x seems really optimistic.

Close to 19:00 UTC, which is 5 hours from now.

$240.3M was China's total after Wednesday, not Thursday. OS-China after Thursday was $887.6M, with China at $248.9M according to Disney.

Black Panther's 3rd Wednesday was hurt by a massive snowstorm in the Northeast. That's why it increased by 8% on the following Thursday.

80.8M for IW:

Using that same logic, the best possible rating for Ragnarok would be 7.7. Yet it's at 8.9. Not sure how the rating system works, but it's not like that. EDIT: Looks like Ragnarok's breakdown was glitched at the time I wrote this post. Now that it's fixed, assuming the maximum score in each range would actually give 9.24. So it probably does work like that after all

How does the rating breakdown work, anyway? In which range would a score between 8 and 9 be included? In 7-8, or in 9-10? Does 7-8 actually mean 6.5-8.49, or is it 7-8.99? Bit confusing, lol.

Or: BP 7.83 TA 8.32 For a $123-131M weekend.

It happened.

Interestingly, using the exact same day-to-day drops as BP or TA after their first Wednesdays gives us 2 nearly identical weekend numbers, even though they're 2 very different ways of getting there: BP: $126.95M(-50.7%) TA: $126.42M(-50.9%)

Avengers made $33.1M OS on April 30, not $39.8M. It made $185.1M by its first Sunday(boxofficemojo) Avengers daily numbers that week: Monday: $33.1M Tuesday: $42.3M (got both Monday and Tuesday numbers from this deadline article) Wednesday: $20.6M Thursday: $22.9M Already made a post about what IW would do if it followed those exact drops:

Looked it up and this is what IW's daily OS numbers would look like if it followed The Avengers's day-to-day OS drops for this same week: Monday: $60.3M Tuesday: $77.1M (+27.8%, but Avengers opened in Bulgaria, Latvia, Singapore and Thailand) Wednesday: $37.5M (-51.3%, but Avengers opened in Egypt and Serbia) Thursday: $41.7M (+11.2%, but Avengers opened in UAE, Bahrain, Czech Republic, Croatia, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Lebanon, Serbia, Russia, Slovenia, Slovakia and Ukraine) Looks like we should expect the Wednesday number to be roughly half of whatever it makes on Tuesday.

The Avengers also opened in Bulgaria, Latvia, Singapore and Thailand on May 1, which boosted that Tuesday some more. Would make sense if IW's Tuesday doesn't increase as much and goes lower than $77M.

Neither are typos, boxofficemojo's OS number just doesn't include what it has made since last Sunday yet.

1333.1 > 1332.8

No one has noticed this yet? http://deadline.com/2018/04/avengers-infinity-war-worldwide-opening-record-all-time-international-box-office-1202378926/

That doesn't take the difference in preview/true Friday ratio. $77M after a $56M true Fri is surely too much, right? With a $95M Friday ($39M previews+$56M true Fri), the same true Fri-Sat increase as CW would give $67.87M for IW Sat.

According to deadline, 94.5% of TFA's presales were for OW as well, so it looks like TFA's presales weren't as backloaded as some people are assuming: http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-the-force-awakens-opening-weekend-box-office-audience-1201667970/

It's because the difference between for example a 72% Monday drop and a 75% Monday drop is bigger than it may seem at first glance. A 72% Monday drop leads to a Monday number 12% bigger than a 75% Monday drop would. In other words, a 75% Monday drop followed by a 32% Tuesday increase leads to the same Tuesday number as a 72% Monday drop followed by an 18% Tuesday increase. A Monday drop just a few percentage points smaller is already enough to cause a pretty big difference in the Tuesday bumps.

It made $4.36M this weekend, not $7M+: Country (click to view chart) Rank Days in Wknd Weekend Gross % Change Screens/ Theaters Change / Avg. Gross-to-Date Week # FOREIGN TOTAL 6 3 $4,355,898 -46.8% 43 -6 $101,300 $634,558,986 8 http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&view=byweekend&wk=2018W14&id=marvel2017b.htm

Mendelson with the early Black Panther number: https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2018/04/06/box-office-today-may-be-the-day-black-panther-sails-past-titanic/#3587bddf7835 So that's between $1,297,121-1,298,120 to be exact, based on that 656.921 number. 7.1-7.2% drop from Wednesday.