True OWeek multi of next most recent schooltime non religious 10-40M OW A+s:
Selma 3.2x (days 8-11 were mlk wknd though — adjusting for that crudely, 2.9ish)
Lone Survivor 2.5x (also 2nd wknd mlk, less impact though)
Best man holiday 1.85 (??? — maybe somebody can explain the atrocious legs on this A+ to me, small movie before my time)
42 2.65x
All did it off >5x — though only one this century, and barely at that. I believe that’s comprehensive— the only other films to open above 10M in Sep and leg >5x look to be Last of the Mohicans (75M), Sneakers (51M), and Sea of Love (58M).
Edit: Missed one. Did it off just 3.5x so of course not good enough to TWK
Going optimistic thanks to reception, let’s say:
1.7
5.5
7
5.5 // 18M true
weekdays 7M // 26.7M cume, 25M true OWeek
weekdays/true OW there is ~39%, vs 36% Ford v Ferrari, 38% Love Simon, 41% Harriet. Then True OWeek Multics:
FvF 2.9x
LS 2.66x
Harr 2.72x
FvF had the most holiday help here, with thanksgiving on day 13. Most had more competition than TWK. 2.6-2.9x range let’s say would take it to 67-74. Throw in some variance on the OWeek and 60-80 it will be.
Fwiw I thought you meant domestic. If will still easily clear 50% of CM1 WW, but the ratio will be much worse than domestic thanks to losing markets (China, likely Russia, possibly Middle East) and likely awful ERs.
CM1:
DOM 427M
OS 701M
OS-C-R 527M
here I think a fair medium target would be 350 DOM (-18% nominal, -36% admits) 350 OS (-50% headline, -33% same markets). 700 is just such a bummer low num though, so I will hope for great marketing and reception for 450+500 or so 😛
It’s always been 09:00 Eastern, 3 hrs before fml, which the internet informs me is currently 14:00 Irish.
It’s possible that the Irish time deadline changes by 1-2 hrs at various points in the year for daylight savings reasons, but from a quick google I think that 5 hr diff applies for ~50 weeks of the year, changing to 4 or 6for a while in nov&march.
I think Pearl and See How They Run will round out the top 3, or at worst 4, in which case they both sort of need to be included. Next 7 I would go:
Barbarian
Top Gun
Bullet Train
DC Pets
Brahmastra
The Invitation
Minions
Right.
I mean there are always the meganiche artificially constructed records -- "strongest imax sales for a movie named don't worry darling" or whatever
See how they run just had a pretty solid UK debut I believe? Clerks will probably burn off a lot on tues-th and I wouldn't include it regardless of wideness.
None of them have a bop long range num.
The numbers thinks they're all wide but they're sometimes wrong. Maybe @katnisscinnaplex will be able to run a check today
A1 atp was very inflated relative to the time though. More than A2 will be. So inflation A1 tickets to A2 tickets will probably be less than 2009:2022 general atp growth, not more.
Sure, it shouldn’t be held to the standards of spidey or DS2 — but held to th standard of Ragnarok is more than fair.
The OW was worse than Ragnarok when it should have improved. Good-not-great run would have looked like 160->410 or so perhaps.
ERs are getting really hit right now tbf. I guess if the DOM:OS-C-R-middle East ratio is similar to Rag that actually represents doing better OS in real terms.
340 ain’t what it used to be. Going to end ~16% down from Homecoming in admits and 27% down from FFH. Most relevantly it is ~11% down from Ragnarok admits, when at minimum it should have increased.
I agree that Marvel should take xmas, but can keep the mid summer slot too, it’s also good.
It was always quite evident that DS2 had more potential as people were expecting more of an event. The potential for Thor to win was if it got good reception, after DS2 stumbled.
Yeah. From 1.3 True Friday Sat should go at least 1.5 and then sun 1+.
Frankly I am deferring a little to @Sandro Mazzola with that one who is well versed in horror. I think more like 10-10.3 maybe. It will have a modestly better true IM than some summer comparables because it’s schooltime now.
Might be a little too low on kids Sats, but the difference in pre-labor Sat and post-labor sat was it that dramatic in the few years I checked.