Cooper Legion

Wanna see somebody do a one year PS run for the memes.

The Australia post was partly in jest or course -- the exponential growth during the 2010s wasn't really sustainable. But NWH would probably be a bit under even a linear fit -- a lot of time had passed since the endgame trailer. Now, a slightly under trend new nominal #1 is still a new nominal #1. There is crazy buzz. But the 24 hours views don't support a greater than endgame buzz by any stretch imo, and neither do the Twitter metrics (movie engagement on Twitter has also had 2.5 yes to grow, from a lower base).

Btw, the trailer view growth vs Endgame was actually pretty pathetic for a 2,5 year difference. It is definitely not more hyped, in any way (as a basic common sense sanity check would tell you all along).

Of course we understand the concept of different opinions, but “how much will NWH open to” is not some purely subjective personal preference like “what is your favorite number.” There are facts and historical data that have pretty significant bearing on what the plausible range of numbers is.

Ultimately though, I must thank the curmudgeons. It’s going to make it much more satisfying when it pulls fairly predictable numbers that they are way past certain predictions, compared to a world where everybody agreed it was doing 170-220 or so and then it did.

Yeah, I still remember those silly overpredictions of IW outopening TFA and Endgame getting 300. What a blunder by the BoT marvel hive mind 🙄

I can’t believe you’re still spinning this bullshit keyser. We all remember it opened on Tuesday, what do you think that repeating this completing irrelevant factoid over and over is supposed to show!

It's a good OW prediction (OWeek)

What is your point supposed to be here?

With V2 at 90 just 135 here would be depressingly weak. Luckily don't have to worry about such things.

I'll just drop this again if anybody wants a quick reference: Movie Th TFri Sat Sun prev % Fri/Th Sat/Fri Sun/Sat true IM IM TFA $54,000,000 $65,119,282 $68,294,204 $60,553,189 0.4533 1.2059 1.0488 0.8867 2.9786 4.5920 RO $29,000,000 $42,094,394 $46,308,115 $37,679,172 0.4079 1.4515 1.1001 0.8137 2.9952 5.3476 TLJ $45,000,000 $59,684,491 $63,993,205 $51,331,888 0.4299 1.3263 1.0722 0.8021 2.9322 4.8891 TROS $40,000,000 $49,615,288 $47,467,565 $40,301,011 0.4464 1.2404 0.9567 0.8490 2.7690 4.4346 Geomean $40,974,727 $53,376,823 $55,672,784 $46,610,674 0.4340 1.3027 1.0430 0.8372 2.9174 4.8035 weighted(5:3:1:2) $42,448,584 $54,590,792 $57,157,654 $48,671,360 0.4371 1.2860 1.0470 0.8515 2.9396 4.7837 NWH 36000000 60000000 64800000 55080000 0.3750 1.6667 1.0800 0.8500 2.9980 5.9967 The tfa Th is an est rather than the initially reported fig, just ignore that bit if you prefer.

BO Boomers vs Zoomers: the contest

So what is the spoiler policy here anyway? Talking about comic source material untagged is free game in CBM threads afaik, not sure what the deal was for the GoT thread.

Think I know what you’re talking about here and agree completely. Think I know what you’re talking about here as well and disagree with the characterization.

Well, that really gets at the core of it. People will expect what seems realistic to them, they can’t just will their own expectations higher or lower on a whim in an attempt at psychological self manipulation. Pretending to have lower expectations doesn’t stop you from getting disappointed. Now, that’s not to say expectations are unchangable — new data can alter them of course. Based on various data we’ve discussed in the past few pages I have lowered my current real expectations to 45 or so (with good covid situation) which should give me a pretty reasonable chance to get disappointed and a pretty reasonable chance to get pleasantly surprised — of course, if I felt otherwise, it wouldn’t be my real expectation at all 😛

Logically it will be even better to expect 5M, then we can still pretend to be pleasantly surprised even if it flops 😛

No weekend numbers yet.

Uhh… pretty normal actually? Like it wouldn’t be a strong hold by any means but it’s not a total nosedive either, better than the CS would suggest imo.

For wknds of 26-27 and 13.5ish

Had Eternals 7.6 and Clifford 3.6, pretty close

Counterpoint: GoT made a bunch of differences from the book and was pretty good countercounterpoint: s8

Step 1: Find a source material you think is appealing step 2: ignore a bunch of its choices The science of Hollywood adaptation

Already find myself hoping "maybe they'll do it better next time," which is... not a great sign 😂 But also, pretty premature. I'll give them at least a season's worth of benefit of the doubt.

Oof. Renewed for S3 -- looks like they are getting around actors aging in part with pretty continuous production.

I bet 130 would suffice to give tele the lowest prediction 😛