Cooper Legion

Generally speaking — yes, absolutely. In this specific case I don’t think we’ll be able to distinguish a “megamonstrous+” showtime allocation from a “megamonstrous-“ showtime allocation because comps in the range are so sparse.

One pretty interesting factor that we will learn before preview lock is preview start time. 3 vs 7 have some pretty different implications.

The google RNG tiebreak is substantively equivalent to entering 36000001 or 35999999. Pry my round numbers from my cold dead hands

Hah, like I said to venomxxr earlier some mild disagreement among sources for the month. I think the lower numbers are more likely to be missing some movies vs the higher numbers over counting, so target should be somewhere 630s. I mean, it’s really 90M in 2 days, the true single day record probably can’t touch F9’s OW.

USERNAME PREVIEWS TRUE FRIDAY SATURDAY SUNDAY TOTAL Legion 36M 60M 64.8M 55.08M 215.88M This is my exact prediction from months and months ago. Hopefully no edits needed 🤞

150M would be a worse opening in admits than FFH’s effective 3day. You could blame covid and December though.

describing 150M as a 60% increase from FFH is comically disingenuous. A 60% increase from FFH’s effective 3day would be about 230M (this is a little too high even for me). As for “nothing close to the link FFH had to Endgame”… if you think the FFH hook was even in the same ballpark as Tobey I don’t know what you’re smoking

The first and the third are pretty equivalent. What kind of run do you see where it totals at like 640 but od was well under 90?

To sum: Now that we have heard this bombshell about reshoots, by carefully inspecting the history of other movies with big reshoots, we know that it will be either good or bad (but probably good). This is a huge change from before the news broke, when we knew that it would be either good or bad (but probably good). Wow!

Pretty easy shot to the yearly top 4 (with WV SC and Eternals) if execution remains decent throughout. Could even make #1, bar is not turning out to be insanely high or anything.

Shaping up to be the biggest positive surprise of the year MCU wise. Can only hope they stay strong through the finale.

But under 150 would be lame. Why lowball for sake of some weird expectations gaming.

*Snake Eyes looks on jealously*

Zhao: Is that a challenge?

Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong — unless you are protected by the presence of the mouse.

Wow, it does seem that the reporting at the time is that AoU and Pixels were the two most viewed trailers globally in 24 hours with… 35M. I used the Wikipedia list of historical records to fit the data from 2012 (IM3) to 2018 (AEG): NWH should have done 1.4B to match growth trend. Flop trailer. 40M only

On the back of nostalgia bait/crossover event status (Dafoe, Molina, rumored/assumed return of Garfield/Maguire)

More importantly it had veterans eve on Thursday, so the daily change was vs Wed rather than Tues. Eternals would have increased Th from Wed if Veteran’s was Fri — though less than DS 18%, probably single digits.

Also, since I figure folks getting pinged in this thread are especially inclined toward BO games, going to take this opportunity to plug the Fantasy Movie League, which I have been running on a weekly basis for a while now. If you haven’t played before the tl;dr is: 15 movies (or days, or combinations of movies) available to play Each has a certain price You pick up to 8 (including possible duplciates) with total cost less than 1000 your weekly score is the sum of the movies you played, + some bonuses for playing the one with the best price performance ratio and penalty for playing less than 8 There’s a calculator (linked on top row of sheet) to easily investigate the highest scoring lines given a gross for each of the options locks at noon eastern time (listed on sheet) The official version from noovie that you may have heard of before had a slick UI, but the player run version for covid times just works on sheets. Feel free to claim a column at the end of the sheet — winter season starts with Encanto, so there are two weeks at the end of fall here to dip your toe in if it sounds interesting. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10i22pDsM9Sh-tnXfVQ8LbRWuydgs6zlKJRJROw0EekU/edit

Like others have said, go at whatever pace you feel is sustainable. Personally I think biweekly is kind of fun since then some are forecasting 8 days ahead, which is a bit of a middle ground between the full season stuff and the 1 day ahead stuff.

I think 2nd place Spider-man in admits would be a fine result. Likely to do that or worse in many developed markets. I guess if ATP is like 10% up from FFH (as in many markets) then +20% FFH admits for 3.1 or so would be like 49M

Hmm, yeah, those raimi admits aren’t that impressive. I could settle for 45

NWH is bigger movie generally than TROS, much bigger J:TNL. How did raimi trilogy do here in admits as a sanity check?

Won’t be an easy one… unless it is 👀

A Kevin Feige production, you betcha 😎