Cooper Legion

I consistently denigrate early deadline nums and no reason to stop now — but IF 17M is the OD it seems monke could keep the true FSS crown for Max releases.

Much doubt from me. The grosses from Dec-April were fun for me to follow, but hardly that critical in absolute magnitude. We could have just released nothing those months and started up with mdw, theaters would still have been okay.

No one to blame but themselves tbh. Should have retitled it Ron: Infinity Robot or some shit, easy 2021 #1

Wow, no post credits scenes here??? Real amateur hour, how will people know to want a part 2 🤔

I think 10M in Dec should be quite possible, but of course we will have to see how vaccinations, cases, restrictions etc trend

Yeah I was talking Eternals previews, pure coincidence that they are in same range as Dune True Fri. As far as projecting from a preview+a true Fri, I highly recommend you look at (ow-prev)/(true Fri) rather than OW/(prev+true Fri).

Fun with math: a 68% drop is a 60% larger weekend than an 80% drop

the franchise hostels here is really annoying in terms of trying to find trends. H 2009 labor 2nd weekend, H2007 labor 1st wknd, H:res summer. H2018 was down 21% Mon to Wed and did 8.5x Wed for the 2nd weekend vs essentially 0 wide opening competition— Hunter Killer at 6.6M. H2021 is down 26.4% Mon to Wed, 8.5 would give 17M, expecting more like 16M, -68%. Pretty brutal drop but not -80% or anything.

A lot of different things are possible from here, especially if reviews are soft. ButI am still sort of thinking 14+ with better final week growth and ATP than BW.

Harrumph 🤔 Guess I’ll treat that as 13 😛

Catchy

Weekly Questions will have 13 questions, except for the weeks that don't: Part A: 1. Will Dune open to more than $35M? 1000 Yes 2. Will Dune Open to more than $50M? 2000 No 3. Will Dune Open to more than $42.5M 3000 No 4. Will every day of Dune's 3 day weekend gross more than Ron's Gone Wrong's total weekend gross? 4000 Yes 5. Will Ron's Gone Wrong gross more than $10M? 1000 No 6. Will No Time To Time drop more than 56.9%? 2000 No 7. Will The Last Duel stay above Shang Chi? 3000 No 8. Will No Time To Die have a PTA above Venom? 4000 Yes 9 Will No Time To Die's Total gross overtake Free Guy by the end of the Weekend? 1000 No 10. Will Lamb stay in the top 10? 2000 No 11. Will The French Dispatch have a PTA over $12,000? 3000 Yes 12. Will Addam's Family cross %50M by the end of the weekend? 4000 No 13. Will Halloween's weekend be closer to Dune or Venom? 6000 Venom Bonus: 6/13 2000 7/13 4000 8/13 6000 9/13 9000 10/13 12000 11/13 16000 12/13 20,000 13/13 24,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Dune make for its 3 day OW? 42.2M 2. What will The Last Duel's percentage drop be? 53% 3. What will Candyman's PTA be for the 3 day weekend? $330 Part 😄 There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 2. Halloween 4. Venom 6. AF2 8. Last Duel 10.Free Guy 12. Candyman Because I realised bonuses are stupid... 1/6 4,000 2/6 10,000 3/6 18,000 4/6 25,000 5/6 36,000 6/6 - 50,000

Sounds rad actually (phantasm, not joker)

2.5 would be very good legs here. One thing to remember is most max have opened on Fri, opening on Thursday will just the official legs even more. Saw this a bit with TSS legs despite having summer weekdays for crucial first week or two.

Yeah either a weak Tues and/or a strong mon (though they looked normal at the time vs sun, so lean toward the former). As long as Mon:Wed holds are normal doesn’t really matter though.

That’s the joke.

Chinese distributor should have an “official” USD worldwide gross, but 99% of sites will just have some ER calculation that they messed up slightly. Pay no attention.

You get the feeling they were headed in that direction. … before they, y’know, died.

My god, he’s saving up for the binge model

You’re off your game man, compared to the BW and SC clubs this is nothing. Gimme under Venom at least

I see we’ve fixed the title

Ah, the best trilogy

One obvious solution to having too many subfranchises going is just to let things die after 3 like Iron man did. That is what I assumed the model would be in 2017 or so, but love and thunder+cap 4+assumed Spidey 4 starts to make trilogies look more like exception than rule, and if you're going to beaking 4-5 of everything that's when you sort of have no choice but to turn to lots per year.

BW was perfectly solid, deserved 80%+. The percent is not an average score and all that But yeah, Feige doesn't really make the sort of movie to miss on being certified fresh, so "nothing will" is pretty much correct until we get a real outlier (if it's NWH it would be hilarious to me but I doubt it).