Cooper Legion

The best “watching a play of your own life” ep is of course The Ember Island Players.

SC’s 4th weekend is tracking pretty good for Sep 24

V1 looked like it should open in the 40s in the first place to me, so just returning back to earth 👀 If this does open way down, not so long after TSS, I don’t think it will be like, a super super mystery. Normal sequel behavior is to drop on OW and total. Especially if the first entry overperformed. Especially if the first entry has pretty mixed reception. On the other hand, it’s only been a few days. I don’t want to write any premature obits. Especially as I was down on V1 in 2018 and then it did end up exploding in the final few days. While I’m skeptical that a sequel will massively overperform, say, an F9 comp which also had a big final surge, crazier things have happened.

Revisiting this, forgot that V1 had Sun boosted by Columbus Day. Looks like it would have been ~7.6 IM otherwise. I doubt V2 cracks 7x, maybe call it 6.2-7. 50M looking tough imo but we’ll see if there’s a final few day explosion.

That is not too bad I guess. Hoping Eternals can crack 100 but maybe too optimistic about recovery.

Decided to dig up a pre-covid expectation to make sure I wasn’t BSing. That 700 is for OS, lol — was assuming a China release but it also goes to emphasize how OS is still more affected.

33% short at the literal peak delta and with kid vaccines coming soonish does not bode so bad for Dec though imo.

Personally I feel we are still about 25% under normalcy. That takes Shang-Chi from 235 to 313. Even that would be like 80th DOM, vs: IM1 21st gotg1 31st SMH 49th 350 in normalcy doesn’t sound too outlandish really, then we are like 33% short.

Bingo right here. When people are discussing how much small/medium movies are “being impacted by covid” I sometimes wonder if they remember how those sorts of releases were trending in 2018-2019.

I won’t be shocked if FG is #2 next week either, though probably 3 or 4 is more likely.

😎

Right on expectations, a strong drop from last Sat as already mentioned, 2nd strongest in the MCU. I think right around 10 is right for Sun. If either of you have any numbers on small movies in the next half hour or so I’d be quite interested — especially malignant, FG, and card counter.

3rd weekend hold vs holds thereafter is not particularly strong correlation either, r^2 .41. Just eyeballing I feel a lot of the residuals can be explained by competition and holidays. Anyway suppose 35M 2nd weekend, 10M 2nd weekdays, 23M 3rd weekend, 6.5 3rd weekdays. Then we would have 29.5 3rd week (-34.4%) and the regression would suggest ~3.28x 3rd week multi for 155+29.5*3.28=252. That mostly matches my optimistic nums above, so let’s see if wk3 can hold up that well. If it is more like -45% than -35% that’s still fine, total low 220s or so.

Max is absolutely brutal for this non-blockbuster shit now that consumers are used to it. Rem+Malignant+Macho OWs under GvK Fr?

Yeah looks like mix of reopeninga boosts, low competition, and summer weekdays.

Just to reiterate for people, these are not 4 AM nums. Could go like 12% off, not just like 2% off.

Kind of want to investigate 3rd weekend hold vs post 3rd week legs now.

Good news: now enough MCU movies to do kind of interesting regression with them Bad news: regression reveals the relationship between the 2nd Sat hold and the effective avg post-2nd week holds to be quite weak. Looking at all 24 previous movies, r^2 of .12 (suggests a 2nd week multi of 2.56x). Excluding summer, avengers subfranchise, and thor1 gives a still weak r^2 of .38 and a predicted 2nd week multi of 2.73. 2nd week should be something like 45M let’s say. Then: 110+45*2.56 -> 225M 110+45*2.73 -> 233M But again the correlation is really too weak to put much stock in the results. My expert judgement (editor’s note: expert judgement means “gut”) says a 3x 2nd week multi is possible on the high end, so highly optimistic case maybe 110+48*3=254 and pessimistic say 110+44*2.4=215

Yeah that’s why I stopped before day 15 😆 Another BO person points out that Thor opened in the 2nd weekend of Fast Five whereas most later MCU movies didn’t have anything dare to open immediately before.

TA being 2nd best was a second hand factoid. Doing some own research and I think Thor is 2nd best with just -35%. Thor Day 6-14 may look very close to SC in fact, will be interesting to see how close 2nd weekdays play.

Quite expected I would say, from a few different angles (Fri/Sat historical comps, Sat PS). If we can come on closer to the .5 than .0 that would be 33% Sat-to-Sat drop which I the 2nd best in mcu after Black Panther only (35% drop of 15.0 is actually still 2nd best — TA at -38 after BP -28). Also better than Jungle Cruise. Bodes well for legs from here.

240-250 in a normal market implies ~0 effect from the million cases per week. Perhaps true, but at the very least rather bold.

Without PA BW is a clear 100+ OW weekend for likely 40-45 ballpark 2nd weekend, perhaps falling behind SC on 3rd weekend.

Also of course the Fri comp is still very skewed by school vs summer. 9.7 vs 8 there is some window for spin, it’s “just” 20% over. 15.5 vs 10.5…

ERC is just giving Space Jam the proper respect it deserves for its occupancy stats