Cooper Legion

Very shallow take when: nobody was using the BW comps TSS comps pointed to a much higher number than F9 comps, because tss was much more backloaded than F9 SC comps pointed to a pretty similar number as SC comps, because the MCU SC had a pretty similarly shaped PS run as an “F9 performer” V2 is not acting like an F9, but gaining on it substantially There’s no need to try to make this seem obvious or inevitable post hoc, because it wasn’t. Sometimes we get genuine surprises, otherwise this whole enterprise would be rather dull.

Okay, okay, so despite my personal distaste, it’s clear Venom will have a nice debut. But — will it have a Nice debut?

@Menor would it be possible to get a midday update tomorrow, even if it’s rough. Just to see if pace is keeping up or falling to earth. Before like 7 Eastern would be very useful for me.

Jesus. Despite being a sequel it seems this just has a very casual audience that didn’t feel a need to presell much — or maybe the release date hijinks depressed earlier days, or it’s benefitting from delta receding. In any case, may have to join Menor’s club if tomorrow keeps it up.

Thanks! I won’t comment much on Newark given lack of comps, except to note that the BOP range is 7-16 to be precise and I’ve personally been feeling more like high single digits with the way max releases have gone recently+ sopranos being literally an hbo show. For Addams, it is a day and date PVOD as I understand it, but so is the JC comp. would generally expect the ratio of JC to rise. AF1 did: 1.25 8.46 (x6.8) 11.76 (+39%) 8.82 (-25%, Columbus Sun) Perhaps could see: 1 (37% JC) 5 (46.5% JC) 7 5 or so.

I would love this for my club but it’s completely impossible. You are clearly not paying attention to the right data. Even if it decelerates bad on the final few days and does like 75% of SC’s rate (which is pretty unlikely) we’d still be looking at 6.5M

I know we’ve got a lot of big movies in the pipe right now, but BOP does have Many Saints doing like 10M and Addams like 15 for the upcoming weekend, which are bigger than anything the past few weeks. If anybody is planning to track them, a quick glance in the next 35 hours or so would be appreciated.

100% going for 12 incorrect btw. Well trapped.

Okay, followup question… 😆

I will be extremely shocked, I thought that was like a 3-6M kind of flick.

I mean, I'm sure both will happen, but Tobey is definitely the better choice for trailer view bait

Yeah, unclear how much they'll blow their load, but... we are talking about Sony here. If they put in like Tobey vs Dafoe, Cox, and a 3 spideys shot it's not obvious to me it would decrease. There's plenty of other stuff that could make the internet go bonkers tbh. This is just me brainstorming and not based on any rumors -- I doubt most of it is even in the movie. But stuff like: Kingpin or other Netflix characters She-hulk Tom Hardy Spider-verse miles A spider-gwen 3 spideys talk about uncle Ben Tobey giving great power responsibility etc quote Etc. The premise just lends itself well to mega-nostalgia bait/fan teases

Apparently this does give SC the MCU record for days at #1. TA and IW were stopped convincingly by MIB3 and DP2, whereas BP lost to Wrinkle in time by 200k with previews rolled in.

Gave you the numbers 9 hours early

Welcome! If your first wknd here was the SC weekend I guess you already know whose projections to pay attention to 👀😉

All good points. On the other hand, range balancing is really more of an art than a science, right @Shawn? For instance, NTTD is currently (for free folks) 56-85. Now, the range could have been 55-86 instead. That's strictly less informative, but also strictly more likely to contain the true OW, without changing the point estimate. On the other hand, the range provided could have been 57-84 -- same average, strictly more informative, strictly less likely to contain the true OW. Unless they are intended as 90% confidence intervals or some other quantitative measure, which isn't the impression I have, the question of how wide a band to claim around the point estimate is pretty much a matter of trading off some subjective benefits vs others at the margins. I would personally prefer tighter bands in some cases, for largely aesthetic reasons, but I also know the professional incentives might not be there when considering the entire ecosystem.

For sure. DEH like 2.5 vs SC 3.5+ -- I actually don't think DEH will win even with previews rolled in.

Copshop Fri waiting room

I don’t know that reviews really matter here. Hoping for a fun photo finish vs Free Guy in the 125-135 zone.

So I guess we can look forward to [2022] My Homeland, My Parents

Could you go into more detail on your comp process? I notice these don’t quite line up with a basic “ticket #/ticket # * comp movie preview.” Edit: Nevermind, I was looking at the wrong numbers like an idiot.

Wonder what % of November this can pull. DS1 and Ragnarok won their Novs, but by relatively paltry margins (22% and 28%). Though actually, it looks like the typical November schedule with Thanksgiving leads to a very evenly spread out month — the largest % of November was claimed by F2 with just 28.1%! Eternals should beat that with ease given what the month looks like.

50% drops? Is that from medium reception, harsh upcoming competition, or just how the market is (I think of Taiwan as having solid legs bit it’s biased by mostly only paying attention to runs that are big, which are disproportionately likely to be having far better than usual legs).

I know there's estimated hour adjustment, but that makes it better to check pace rather than worse (though gotta make sure hours are lined up for the other movie, which I forgot about here). And it was over 3 days, so some decent averaging out of errors. Could try an average pace over like 5 or 7 days instead to smooth out even more, but then you're getting different parts of the U curve and have more stale data so it's harder to capture recent movement.