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Cooper Legion

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Everything posted by Cooper Legion

  1. Cooper Legion
    You seem to think the MCU is more fanheavy than it really is. This was an issue around this time in SC run iirc. SC isn't a perfect comp by any means, I think it will improve on a straight SC comp for sure though. F9 may be an issue in the other direction though. Anyway, agree on bolded. Not that interested in this movie to begin with, so "wait and see" sounds like a good way to go.
  2. Cooper Legion
    Got SC 10-7 at about $150k or $50k/day from @charlie Jatinder sheet. Didn't realize the V2 t-10 was from 9AM, thanks for pointing that out. Makes the numbers even worse. If it runs like 80% of SC from here that wouldn't be bad per se (certainly kills my club) but I struggle to see where Keyser is getting 9 either.
  3. Cooper Legion
    -20% was from a holiday. More like 40 for this one
  4. Cooper Legion
    Yeah, the review drop complicates stuff but it's also the case that V2 has no review bump coming up to compensate 😆
  5. Cooper Legion
    The reason I’m waiting another few days is to see how it can do vs SC in run rate as we approach that critical final week. For the first few days after t-10 it seems to be pacing around 100% at mtc1 and more like 60% MTC2.
  6. Cooper Legion
    Yeah, I mean, usually a disagreement in final projection will come down to what is being assumed for final few day growth, right? I think this will beat SC in % growth since it has a smaller base, but I don’t know about beating SC final few days in raw sales, which would certainly be needed to go past 8.5 given the comparable PTA. The F9 comp will end up being a bit misleading imo, but it’s hard to say for sure ‘til we see it.
  7. Cooper Legion
    MTC data looks more like 7-8 to me, will try a more detailed projection in a few more days of data.
  8. Cooper Legion
    Doubt there would be many freak outs even if this missies 100M.
  9. Cooper Legion
    PA beginning 2nd weekend for $40, drop in half each month after
  10. Cooper Legion
    I had long used 1.2M as a guesstimate for the “1M+,” shouldn’t make a huge difference though.
  11. Cooper Legion
    At least the ending gets us going for the fun stuff.
  12. Cooper Legion
    Endgame is pretty clearly the ROTK for the next generation imo. And ROTJ for the previous one.
  13. Cooper Legion
    Also, seems like this will end with 98% audience, really surprised by that tbh. Even using all audience it’s 96% — combined with the 92 critic and the letterboxd score etc this is really one of the best received mcu movies which is no easy feat with 25 now.
  14. Cooper Legion
    I think that is actually mildly good news for late legs. Could even see some near-term effect if you had people planning to wait like 3 weeks and stream if free who now realize the choice is 3 weeks and pay for at home vs 7 weeks to stream free.
  15. Cooper Legion
    The Candyman drop is exactly in line with the Saturday tbf, so things are perfectly normal there horizontally. Some cancelled school in Canada seems a solid explanation.
  16. Cooper Legion
    -25% for Candy, -10% Paw. Not sure if some minor school holiday or things just gliding along thanks to delta recovery and utter lack of competition.
  17. Cooper Legion
    No. The point you made was that they still award blockbuster films sometimes. This is not really true, as I pointed out with some pretty unambiguous cold hard facts, and now you’re trying to shift to noms. I personally don’t give a shit what the academy does, but it’s clearly false that they still vote for big movies (not just of “one specific franchise” — of literally any franchise!) the way they did a generation or two ago, and that is mildly interesting just on a historical level.
  18. Cooper Legion
    ROTK was #1 DOM and received massive Oscar love. Next generations’s ROTK, even more successful with audience but crickets for awards. Shows the changed landscape well imo.
  19. Cooper Legion
    Easy 😉
  20. Cooper Legion
    I guess this town will hate Feige forever then 🤭
  21. Cooper Legion
    I mean, the last time they gave best picture to a movie in the DOM top 10 was 18 years ago. It’s pretty obvious that their tastes have diverged a lot from the general audience. Which is fine — it’s not like it’s intended to be the “what did the GA like the most” awards. We have box office, Cinemascore, audience ratings etc to figure that out.
  22. Cooper Legion
    I guess for 3rd best MCU legs we need 237.4M. For that we need 2.87 multi from past 7 days, or 34.8% drops. Could be pretty close.
  23. Cooper Legion
    Why did I have to read all this. Is this thread going to be unbearable for the next few months? The Oscars don’t even matter, most people didn’t care in 2010 and they’ve been on a steady decline ever since. If this had a December release where the late legs could be boosted then I guess that would be a different story, but it’s run will be over by then.
  24. Cooper Legion
    Beating BW seems pretty easy then?
  25. Cooper Legion
    It did have the Sunday holiday boosted, but the FriSat drop of 33.5% is still the best there!
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