Cooper Legion

Well, not wrong,

They could release it as part of virtual SDCC, but I tend to agree with Venom that they’ll want to be confident they’ll actually hit the Feb date and they probably won’t be yet. So... probably sometime in like, August to December.

Imagine that. Somehow a forum devoted to box office attracts a lot of people who care more about big movies than tiny ones. Truly puzzling 🤔

Certainly not, but Avengers numbers is 2 billies. Phase 3 had 9 solo movies, in chronological order their WW ranks were: 12 96 55 49 60 9 138 21 23 Covid aside, which will maybe/maybe not put a long lasting dent in global grosses, 7 of those 9 would be ~1B+ performances in 2022. 4/9 are ~1.2B+. Stuff like Shang-Chi, BW, Eternals, AM3, Blade, FF should be given room to do just mid-high hundred mil and have it be fine, sure. But for the big sequels of DS2, Thor4, SM3, BP2, CM2, and Gotg3 there’s a big difference between wanting avengers numbers and just wanting them to perform in like, the 60th-80th percentile or so of recent solos.

Iron Man was on fire in terms of popularity during the first third of the Infinity Saga. Then Cap got boosted up to the top tier of popularity as well with the TWS-AoU-CW arc in the middle third, and Thor finally entered tier 1 of popularity with Ragnarok+IW I would say. So I can kind of see where Jat is getting these huge numbers from, though I personally won’t go quite as far. Also IM3 was a truly insane WW performance, even reaching the top 5. Won’t expect any McU solo to ever match it, but matching unadjusted a decade later is not such a big ask.

Winter Solider peaked 61st, CW 12th. DS1 peak 96th, so similar rank growth would be 19th WW for maybe 1.3B or so by the time this comes out. However, it’s not adding RDJ as Iron Man and DS1 wasn't received nearly as well as TWS, so some more modest growth to like 40th place would be a fine result as well.

Disappointment Bar for Thor OW is set at 174,144,586 IM3 bumped 600M, Cap3 ~450M. Given Strange appeared in IW/Endgame in between, MoM looks like it will be a CW style “solo but with a big cast of other heroes and big universal implications” event, and 6 years of inflation/market growth we should be aiming for that ballpark at least.

This would be a bummer, let’s try to at least beat CM unadjusted. Other 4 I’m thinking very similar to you.

It's been pretty fun to watch tbh. And of course, ride ain't over yet.

Maybe if things keep getting pushed back but they don’t wanna push stuff in 2023 forward back by that much, Feige can try: Feb Shang-Chi March DS2 May Spider July BP2 Sep Thor4 Nov CM2 😛

July 2022 still on the table

Is... is BP2 still on? Feige really angling to make 4 Billie with movies released in less than a 4 month window? Anyway, all dates are tentative until covid settles, but if this sticks that is some wild shit.

Vday motivated, maybe?

Yaaaaaaaas, this is a 🔥 🔥 🔥take. Let’s be best friends now. I preferred the story of F1, and it was a more successful box office run. But for 2 to perform nearly as well was crazy impressive. Bring on F3 in 2024 with some nice D+ content to bridge the gap.

This is the 3rd highest since Deadline started publishing profit estimates in 2013, behind only the current DOM #1 and current WW#1.

Sony really seems to like July for Spidey, Occam’s razor is just July 2022. CM2 is dated there right now but that’s very tentative. They shifted all the non-Avengers movies by a slot when dating Homecoming, and then did it again daring AM2. Optimistic: Nov 2020 BW Feb 2021 Eternals May/April 2021 Shang Chi Nov 2021 DS2 Feb 2022 Thor4 April/May 2022 BP2 July 2022 Spider-man 3 Oct 2022 Blade or CM2 Pessimistic: May/April 2021 BW Nov 2021 Eternals Feb 2022 Shang-Chi April/May 2022 DS2 July 2022 SM3 Oct 2022 Thor 4 Feb 2023 AM3 April/May 2023 BP2 July 2023 CM2 Fall 2023 Blade btw that latter scenario is just the original Phase 4 plan shifted by a year for each movie 😛

Too many 2020->2021 moves are happening, can’t even keep track of the smaller ones anymore 😛

You do have to wonder if Morbius to 2021 is coming down the pipe.

The great wheel of reshuffling keeps on turnin’ This is a de facto delay for SM3 as well.

People (as in, a big chunk rather than a few vocal whiners) didn’t truly sour on it until the last 3-4 episodes. Of course that’s not going to be reflected in direct viewership of S8, but it still has brutal implications for the shows legacy in $$ and culture.

Also in terms of future streaming value for the show itself. I know so many fans who can’t rewatch now because of knowing how it all goes to shit at the last minute. That’s less value and subscribers for HBOMax.

No, not for months.

Well, yeah. This is the case globally. I think some countries have already declared it officially.

I am a bit curious when trolls will drop from #1.

30 True F paints a better picture, but deadline calling for 95 seem to have forgotten how Easter debut works. Maybe 88. That would take a 2.84 to sink Eric’s club, thinking the under but there is some danger there.