Cooper Legion

Well, on the one hand, yes. Certainly the pandemic is a huge factor in terms of what sort of financial performance can be reasonably expected, and it would not do to forget that. On the other hand, being released in these times doesn’t magically reduce the budget. Movies that don’t make enough money to cover their costs because of being released in this period still are bombs in a financial sense, no? Even if it’s something of a deliberate, expected, unrelated-to-the-movie’s-strength-in-a-vacuum style bomb.

Just noticed there are a lot of really good Maoyan scores near the top of the box office right now. 800 at 9.2 is of course blowing everything else away in magnitude of business, but then you’ve also got: HP1 9.3 Onward 9.2 Interstellar 9.3 SWaS 9.4

Flash: Into the Batverse

Like, obviously it conveys that Disney would like to theatrically release it on Nov 6 if conditions are such that they think it’s a good idea financially compared to the alternatives. But we already knew that. Disney has no control over whether those conditions will actually be in place then or not. They are at the mercy of reality, just as are all the other studios.

Bingo. But it seems some people just want to stick their fingers in their ears and “la la la can’t hear you” so that they can pretend the financial situation on VOD vs theatrical is somehow anything close to normal

Maybe. We don’t really have a clue right now whether that will really be possible.

Would be fitting to do $800M 👀

I definitely missed that reference. It’s easy to miss because BW actually was going to be one of the banner movies for 2020 being a diverse year at the box office.

I dunno if there’s really much to this empirically. But I wouldn’t mind BW going to premium access if Mulan is successful, if that helps the rest of the MCU schedule more smoothly.

I’ll throw my hat in the ring with 80 DOM, 250 OS, but we’re really flying blind here.

Mulan is going straight to paid streaming in a lot of markets and New Mutants is not exactly a major release. Tenet does mean that 2020 will get at least one more major primarily theatrical release, serving as a trial balloon for the rest.

After a great first day in SK presales have kind of slowed to a crawl. Waiting to see if it accelerates after Wed.

PS can be found here (2nd column from right): http://kobis.or.kr/kobis/business/stat/boxs/findRealTicketList.do

Hmm, let’s see. I think the first BO numbers I ever heard about was when The Avengers broke 200M and then ultimately 1.5B when I was 16. I remember paying attention to Winter Soldier and GOtG1 openings a bit, then 2015 biggies a bit and BvS vs CW, but I was still pretty touch and go. Only occasionally looking up how certain movies were doing, no real idea of all-time or yearly records or how things were going on a monthly/weekend basis. Started to pay more attention in summer 2017 with Wonder Woman and spider-man legs, then TLJ, Jumanji, TGS for an exciting winter. But BP OW is what really kicked my interest into overdrive, that’s when I made an account here for the juicy juicy Rth numbers (and because the discussions and expertise seemed to be, and have proved to be, higher quality than Reddit).

Endgame wasn’t a disappointment for me even if I would have enjoyed DOM #1 or 2B OS. WW #1 is more than enough to satiate. TFA not a disappointment. DOM #1 even still, first non-Cameron 2 billie, etc. Therefore biggest BO disappointment of the decade is IW, just some 25M short of BP and TFA ;)

Added 8k today, up to 28.5k. Bit less % growth than F2 on similar day, but still strong this far out. Give another couple days to get a clearer picture of where PS are heading.

If we get a 2nd one, probably gonna be DH1 😛

Pretty normal run through the end. If there are unusual effects from the capacity limit we aren’t close yet. At least 2020 will add one movie to the Billie list.

Maoyan did normalize at night, but still on the slow side with about ¥1.45M today. Still heading for a big weekend but my expectations are definitely lowering a bit.

All-time ranks work much better than yearly. More volume means less variance and much less sensitive to “were there a lot of blockbusters that happened to release this year.” But yeah, it’s not perfect, especially at the very top ranks since you again can have a big effect from very outlier runs. I’d be pretty comfortable to say that a movie which made, say #61 WW in its time (TWS for instance) would translate to about 61st now (BoRhap at 900M). But I definitely wouldn’t be comfortably saying that just because Potter made #2 it would be a 2.8B, or that Age of Ultron doing #5 means it would do 2B. An overly tight correspondence like that doesn’t work with the various historical quirks of the different times. There’s a lot of wiggle room here though. Putting Potter below 2B means a movie 2nd place in its time doing 6th place now, and I don’t think Endgame+Avatar+Titanic+TFA+IW are all historical outliers enough for that to make sense. There were some historically great runs for the time that HP1 did surpass after all.

China is hardly the only market expansion though. I just don’t see any movie performance that was top 2 at the time corresponding to less than 2B.

Imo: RotK easy 2B+ TTT probably FotR more in the JW-2B range

Market growth worth more than that imo. Iirc it was 2nd highest import in China in 2002? And HP franchise was highest import in a couple years. That points to 300-400M+ in today’s China, vs just 20M atp and er adjusted. Bit of market growth in other territories and you’re over 2B. Also it was #2 WW. Ranks don’t translate perfectly across decades but seeing as how even #5 nowadays is 2B+ I’ve gotta consider HP1’s performance a 2B+ analogue.

Today was a bit slow, even for a Sat. Still heading towards a nice open.

Demand is determined by price, but usually a well chosen price from a profit perspective generates a lot of complaining from people who wish they were getting a bigger consumer surplus (or who are actually priced out) without implying that cheaper would have been a better decision.