Cooper Legion

Yep

For those who need a refresher. Edit: SW now 21

Ehhh, heck. I’m cooped up in a cabin over the holidays with copious free time. Gonna make a 2nd pass on these with more detailed thoughts, might change numbers vs my first passes, might not. History of Thor Franchise (all ranks contemporaneous peak): OW Thor 1 66M, 55th Thor 2 86M, 38th, +0.88% monthly Thor 3 123M, 28th, +0.75% monthly DOM Thor 1 181M, 142nd Thor 2 206M, 135th, +0.43% monthly Thor 3 315M, 62nd, +0.89% monthly OS Thor 1 268M, ??? Thor 2 438M, 61st, +1.65% monthly Thor 3 539M, 60th? +0.43% monthly WW Thor 1 449M, 116th Thor 2 645M, 73rd, +1.21% monthly Thor 3 854M, 60th, +0.59% monthly The Thor franchise is actually rather interesting in that between the 1st and 2nd movie, DOM was essentially stagnant while OS showed big growth, but from the 2nd to 3rd the OS performance is essentially stagnant relative to the time period while DOM makes great gains. The overall result is a third sequence with an almost uncanny level of DOM/OS rank balance. As an absolute basement scenario, L&T should be able to match Ragnarok’s 28/62/60/60 performance profile. At present, those correspond to 141M OW, 335 DOM, 607 OS, 904 WW, but we’re only about halfway between 3 and 4. By the time it comes out that’ll probably be more like 150/350/640/950 or so. However, I think the conditions are right for this to do much better than level with Ragnarok. It reminds me of the situation that IM3 and CA 3 were in, which both showed significant improvement from their predecessors on all 4 fronts: IM2 5/29/???/50 -> IM3 2/13/5/5 CA2 30/73/57/61 -> CA3 5/19/16/12 TWS was actually quite close to Ragnarok, but without the Avengers 2.5 nature, Love & Thunder won’t improve as much as Civil War did. 180/450/850/1.3 would translate to ranks of about 11/21/20/18 or so, seems reasonable enough. Monthly growth of .8%/.75%/.95%/.88% No change.

They probably have some 3-day vs 5-day confusion, because they’re showing TFA at like 66% of TLJ and I’m 99% sure it’s more like 110%.

It’s nice how we have a handful of non-purple users with enough coverage to get seemingly decently accurate midday updates (I know your sample size is small so far, and will be less representative for some movies than others). 20.5 would be in line with Jat and Disney estimates, but the -40% evening leaves me a bit concerned about the upcoming weekdays.

TFA’s WW performance Really does not look that much more impressive to me than TPM’s

Thor1->2 30 months, 1.21% growth per month, Avengers 1 in between 2->3 48 months, 0.58% growth per month, Avengers 2 in between Thor 3->4 48 months again, Avengers 3 and 4 in between With 1.21% monthly — 1.521B 1% — 1.376B .8% — 1.251B .58% — 1.127B .4% — 1.034B Middle 3 a decent high/middle/low for me.

GOtG1 was excellent DOM but nothing special OS. I think the sequel had a lot more room to grow, and was kind of a disappointment for MCU sequels (though in retrospect, the fact they hadn’t had any kind of connection to Avengers yet changes the game there). F2 I would have loved a billion, but getting closer to 1B than the original is still quite the crazy performance when you think about it. If DOM can’t beat Dory then that will be the disappointing region for me.

No, whatever Disney says is official. Not guaranteed to match local sources due to small differences in application of ER.

OMFG, that “industry confidence” is some pure unleaded horseshit. Amazing.

He’s trying a neat trick.

Finally a controversial take

Good news: 75k today Bad news: Midway has been showing without a release date on KOBIS, pretty sure it got delayed from 26th to 31st. D-01 22.5k PS Hilarious news: Cats stands a chance to drop to 10th today. Great news: 9049 CGV PS, up weekly. Will forecast overall day at flat for now. Just the sort of Monday we needed.

Not for me. Over performance OS-C 😛 Even TLK will lose title to Dec 17, 2021

Final CGV should be 36-37k. Basically 1k more than I was thinking in morning. Could be anywhere from 67-75 or something depending on the CGV ratio, fingers crossed.

Fair. I will take Over.

Dec 17, 2021

Brave enough to keep Thor fat and smart enough to only do so if it serves the story #GodTaika

Extra 1.5 for Sat-> 2.7 for wknd-> 8.1 for full run, bump realistic to 496. Those numbers for J and F make more sense even if Sat still looking a bit weak.

Primarily by its numbers of course. I’m just pointing out that those numbers being 1B no longer guarantee’s it was a success.

Half this from China

People need to get over this 1B=success mentality. It’s outdated.

It’s honestly very unclear what shtick you even mean here. There are, arguably, quite a few shticks that one might perceive to be going on in a weekend thread where a SW trilogy finale is getting terrible numbers.

No. TFA doesn’t have a verified score at all. Like all movies pre CM, it’s from the unverified era.