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Cooper Legion

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Everything posted by Cooper Legion

  1. Cooper Legion
    Probably because Saturday was Toho Discount day 😛
  2. Cooper Legion
    It was like that for RO. And if it’s liked TROS will easily do 580+ DOM, potentially well north of that. So a 50% DOM ratio wouldn’t be such a bad thing.
  3. Cooper Legion
    I hope you’re looking forward to January when I’m asking Jat for BC dailies all the time
  4. Cooper Legion
    The market is pretty clearly not over-saturated. Just look at the WW #1
  5. Cooper Legion
    Very solid debut for J3 then. 2 weeks from now we’ll have a good idea of where it’s headed 😛
  6. Cooper Legion
    36*4.7*2.95, RO DOM % I think it’ll clear that by 200,300M or so, but it’s not a completely outlandish low end scenario imo.
  7. Cooper Legion
    T-7 MTC1 : previews — TFA - 57/26=2.19x TLJ - 45/24=1.875x (6/7ths as much) TROS is about 10% down from TLJ at est T-7 MTC1, so, keeping in mind that this is all estimates and chain ratios vary: Very optimistic same as TFA, 21.5*2.19=47M previews Optimistic same ratio as TLJ, 21.5x1.875=40M previews medium pessimistic same as EG, 21.5*1.74=37.4M previews very pessimistic same PSm drop as TFA->TLJ, 21.5*1.61=34.5M previews medium pessimistic there is in line with my personal thinking atm, but we’ll see how the week ramp up goes.
  8. Cooper Legion
    From BOM
  9. Cooper Legion
    To the extent that true Friday is helped by people being off school Friday, so should previews be, no? Not sure it will help ratio that much, and TFA already had a -11% Sun so it’s not like there’s a lot of room to improve there. Also it’s the finale, which typically leads to lower IMs. I really, really do not see 5x+ here.
  10. Cooper Legion
    Love how this look so impressive even though you forgot their 4th 200M+ Also IM2 OW was 5th best at the time, same as CW and BP. 8/23 OWs that were top 5, 5/23 that were top 2.
  11. Cooper Legion
    TBF I be the rate of SW PS growth is way less than normal PS growth.
  12. Cooper Legion
    Extreme Job 945,306 I think record should actually be Frozen, with 1,171,846 — but I don’t know a definitive source. Only other 1M+ weekends I know of are Ode to my Father, Veteran, Miracle in Cell No. 7, and Aladdin. So F2 might be heading for 10th best or so (BoRhap 955k, but probably a few more).
  13. Cooper Legion
    Day should settle 396-398ish, so I guess it was still pretty predictable from PS after all. Forced me to think about a good technique for handling unexpected PS numbers though, so that’s good. Sun CGV PS is 62k, very expected. Should be ~350k day, 930k weekend. Projection table from there: cume wk % drop wk multi Final admit 12.11 1.41 55.0% 1.82 13.264 12.11 1.41 52.5% 1.90 13.386 12.11 1.41 50.0% 2.00 13.520 12.11 1.41 47.5% 2.11 13.669 12.11 1.41 45.0% 2.22 13.834 12.11 1.41 42.5% 2.35 14.018 12.11 1.41 40.0% 2.50 14.225 12.11 1.41 37.5% 2.67 14.460 12.11 1.41 35.0% 2.86 14.729
  14. Cooper Legion
    Solid numbers for J3. Maybe AM&tW-JL numbers WW
  15. Cooper Legion
    I can’t tell for 100% what is real and what is people goofing off, so just to be clear, no. Given the F13 boost I expect a 3.5 weekend of thereabouts, maybe lower given that the movie is supposed awful. If you were really looking forward to it and hoping it would do well you have my condolences, but at this point it’s a huge flop. Hopefully you find some personal enjoyment in the movie itself.
  16. Cooper Legion
    0.23 1.2 (+420%) 6.26M (+420%, law of dankness) 32.66 (+420%, basic exponential extrapolation at this point) 40.35M
  17. Cooper Legion
    Tbh it was more intended to be a potpourri of deliberately unsatisfiable pairs of opposites than any kind of real mission statement 😛
  18. Cooper Legion
    Pssh, it’s easy. All they want is a fun but thoughtful movie that spends time developing characters but also doesn’t change them too much, that builds upon but also completely rejects TLJ, that respects the original trilogy characters without having them draw too much focus, that respects the PT without trying to pretend it was good, that makes Reylo shippers happy, that makes Reylo haters happy, that’s a conclusive ending but also leaves the door open for more, that finally gives a satisfying answer to mystery boxes without removing them of their mystery or contradicting TLJ, that has real stakes but also doesn’t kill any characters that they like, that gives Rose an actual reason to exist but doesn’t focus on her too much, that makes Finn and Poe a couple but doesn’t do anything gay, that makes Palpatine feel like real threat while also definitively disposing of him at the end. Oh, and that does but doesn’t have Ewoks. I mean really, is that so hard?
  19. Cooper Legion
    Happened to be in Vermont for Endgame, first in US showing. Usually I am 3 hours late
  20. Cooper Legion
    F2 top 3 markets all hate J3, probably why I had such a negative impressive of its prospects. I have been focusing on them particularly recently.
  21. Cooper Legion
    TBF you could equally view it not so much as being outrageously strong on Saturdays as outrageously dead on Mon-Fri, imo. Saturday may be near 200% of Mon+Tues+Wed+Thu, WTF is that? I mean it plays Sat heavy in SK and DOM too but the Sat is like 80-120% of Mon-Th
  22. Cooper Legion
  23. Cooper Legion
    Jesus fuck. Disaster for the openers there. KO maybe 9M weekend from that, not bad but not great.
  24. Cooper Legion
    I have gotta be honest with you guys — I kept confusing Richard Jewell with Uncut Gems until it was actually December. Never saw a trailer for either, and they both stuck in my mind as “two word small December adult movie that’s related to jewels somehow.”
  25. Cooper Legion
    Yeah, AEG is not safe. This range turned out to be great, as today’s currently looking low 390s or so. That will give weekend around 930k. Mon-Sun week 0 — 4.436M Mon-Sun week 1 — 4.146M (about 300k culture day inflated) Mon-Sun week 2 — 2.115M (-45% from culture day adjusted week 1) Mom-Sun week 3 — est 1.42M (-33%) For EG need 1.82M, is a 2.28x weekly multi, requires 43.8% avg weekly drops. Holidays are coming, and neither Start-up nor Ashfall are doing particularly huge presales. So it’s very easy to see how F2 would get to 14M+, though of course not guaranteed yet.
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