Cooper Legion

It’s not just trolls, it’s a small general impediment to use the audience score that people who loved the movie are more likely to bother with than people who were just kind of “meh, whatever.” And the “really liked”:”meh whatever” ratio is the really important one, since most films are actually hated by a very small fraction of GA.

Unverified era. Verified 87 is a lot weaker.

I have been enjoying Kaley Cuoco Harley a lot. Might just be because she gets paired with Ivy and Robbie hasn’t yet though 😛

Jat posts Friday numbers, not numbers for some kind of abominable-violation-of-all-that-is-natural-and-sacred 40 hour “day”

OS-C 27.5 5-day OW to about 15.5 3-day seems alright. In the new markets J2 opened to about 42M in these markets it seems, just scrolling through J2 on BOM, so 60 is a nice bump. But the legs will probably be a lot worse, so 🤷‍♂️

Spiderverse Amazing 8.6x 2nd weekend multiplier. Would guess more 6.5-7.5 for J3. If week is 136% of Wknd like Verse, then a 60% drop next weekend gives a final multi of 4-4.5 or so. I’d consider anything above that to be a good drop.

Bummer, I was a bit interested from the trailers.

Exactly what Menor said. The key to strong cinematic universe benefits is that people view all of your movies as connected. For a variety of reasons, most crucially the presence or lack thereof of successful team ups, people (accurately) view DC films as mostly independent right now. It could beat BOP’s initial estimates of course, but it will need to do so on its own merits and marketing, unlike e.g. Squirrel Girl which probably hits 200M just because of the studio name.

And using my current rough guess of 940k weekend, here’s the projection table for SK: cume wk avg drop wk multi final 12.13 1.43 57.5% 1.74 13.181 12.13 1.43 55.0% 1.82 13.294 12.13 1.43 52.5% 1.90 13.417 12.13 1.43 50.0% 2.00 13.553 12.13 1.43 47.5% 2.11 13.703 12.13 1.43 45.0% 2.22 13.870 12.13 1.43 42.5% 2.35 14.057 12.13 1.43 40.0% 2.50 14.266 12.13 1.43 37.5% 2.67 14.504

Hmm, I just did some quick mental math, let’s look at this a bit more closely. Last weekend Disney estimated 75.5 for SK. KOBIZ has 76.27, but that is an actual and the actuals were a bit higher than estimates across board. So I’ll just take KOBIZ numbers going forward. Last week (7 days, that is) 1.8026M admits, $12.955M, $7.19 ATP. I think the main difference in our calculations is here, where I was using a more recent ATP instead of the full run ATP. So to get to 95-105, is adding $14.2-$24.2M, is a further 1.98-3.37 admits, is a total of 13.34-14.73M. The very high end looks to high for me, but the low end looks reasonable, and I didn’t want to quibble with like, 94-102 or something.

Yeah, I mean it is very low imo too but I my main point is that floors should be low, and 460 wasn’t enough so. Maybe 440 or 445 or something if you prefer.

I approve the SK range, unless it holds like a champ over holidays. DOM floor is way too high though. Maybe 430.

Cmon guys, have a little faith in the 44x IM

I thought purple users didn’t get preview nums 🤔

The only really shocking thing this weekend in that ya’ll wasted 20 coins on pads 🤣

Eh, you know what, let’s set some expectations. From daily CGV patterns I am seeing 370-415 (-40% to -32% weekly). The upper end of that range is still a pretty great hold, and the low end isn’t even atrocious. Just not as good as WThF.

Why am I not surprised...

Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross (Total) Admissions (Total) Number of Screens Revenue Share 1 Frozen 2 U.S. Nov 21, 2019 $1,264,929 ($80,783,887) 178,064 (11,360,834) 1,323 39.96% 2 Jumanji : The Next Level U.S. Dec 11, 2019 $812,749 ($2,163,779) 113,197 (314,851) 1,182 25.68% 3 FORD v FERRARI U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $370,707 ($5,108,689) 48,596 (683,407) 779 11.71% 4 KNIVES OUT U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $185,352 ($2,471,815) 24,899 (350,176) 519 5.85% 5 A Little Princess South Korea Dec 04, 2019 $124,057 ($2,470,580) 18,682 (378,519) 578 3.91% Halway between morning and midday projections. Has happened a few time, should probably try to incorporate that in the future. Anyway this is a great 4th a Friday, but at 75k the Sat CGV PS are lower than I was hoping/expecting. Don’t feel comfortable giving a number til midday in this case.

For a 7.6 with a decent amount of opening business today, that’s pretty good. Downton 9.3 is funny, but probably not getting reviewed by many people who aren’t fans of the show. Gone with the Light 8.5 is meh, Skyfire 8.0 yikes. F2 was 9th on Friday, let’s see how I t can do on the two days of the week that matter for it 😛

Extension will be worth very little. Probably <$5M. 112-120 or so looks right to me.

The big brain play is to release on Saturday to steal the showtimes from the Friday openers

Well, I suspected there was a pretty decent chance of this. But you’ve gotta take your shots. It’s been fun getting this far.

Midday walk ups have been awesome. Might try for 185k+, about a 20% weekly drop. Also today it’s passed IW to be #4 HW for the moment.

Is it just me, or is 700+ great for BC? I’ve been thinking a 20+ multiplier.

So from what I’m hearing, 2-5. I guess that’s pretty believable: 😂