Jump to content

Cooper Legion

Gold Account
  • Posts

    23,022
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    17

Everything posted by Cooper Legion

  1. Variety with: 45-55 J3 (studio projecting 35) 10-12 BC 10 RJ https://variety.com/2019/film/box-office/box-office-jumanji-the-next-level-richard-jewell-opening-weekend-1203431336/
  2. MCU WW gross: $22.6B MCU China gross: ¥20.4B=$2.9B at today’s rates To you I leave the arduous task of finding a “/” button. Good luck, by the intelligence shown in the comment above you might just need it.
  3. Wang gave 3 or 4 reports for EG iirc, which was enough for Menor to establish a good correlation with Pulse and maybe MTC2 (I forget if they’d started that yet).
  4. Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross (Total) Admissions (Total) Number of Screens Revenue Share 1 Frozen 2 U.S. Nov 21, 2019 $804,755 ($77,231,371) 125,599 (11,064,940) 1,270 33.01% 2 Jumanji : The Next Level U.S. Dec 11, 2019 $707,316 ($715,151) 109,302 (109,926) 1,175 29.01% 3 FORD v FERRARI U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $261,263 ($4,387,881) 38,819 (596,581) 703 10.71% 4 A Little Princess South Korea Dec 04, 2019 $123,561 ($2,187,628) 20,736 (340,751) 579 5.06% 5 KNIVES OUT U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $137,110 ($2,116,273) 20,553 (306,511) 502 5.62% 6 Killed My Wife South Korea Dec 11, 2019 $107,539 ($119,094) 16,316 (17,913) 533 4.41% 7 START-UP South Korea Dec 18, 2019 $82,975 ($165,245) 14,096 (32,813) 77 3.4% Frozen is starting to show some actually nice legs here, let’s see if it lasts. Minor daily bump on J3 OD while most other movies dropped 16-30%, puts F2 down about 29% weekly in actuals. Should profit further from Jumanji’s poor reception. CGV PS are 15k, going to say 118k. With normal FSS patterns that should give it a good shot to be above Extreme Job’s 4th weekend and maybe even a 4th 1M+ weekend. AFAIK the only other movies with 4 1M+ weekends are Ode to my Father and Veteran, both of which opened much lower. EDIT: Look like just 1k or less sneaks for START-UP today, but it’s no longer looking very formidable on KOBIS. I guess Ashfall may be the bigger opener next week.
  5. We have Wang and trade reports. There is indeed a lot of interpolation going on though.
  6. Sun should be good, but 12% seems really aggressive I like that reasoning for F, Sat.
  7. Makes sense, to avoid Culture Day Christmas. Do you know perchance if START-UP will have any more limited sneaks like yesterday and today? Jumanji egg was 92 very very initially, but now down to 85. Not good.
  8. What a hassle, now we have to pay a bit of attention to PS on 18, 19, and 20 to get more of a sense. Or just pay attention to nothing and round to 0.
  9. Jumanji doing great walkups, as perhaps should have been expected. Maybe 125k day depending on how CGV heavy it plays. Here are first 5 days of J2 for comparison: 125k 108k 135k 269k 255k 890k 5-day OW F2 great walkups also, headed for maybe 132 k or so. So a mild increase despite the competition that opened today, and just -26% weekly. Could be in a for a pretty nice weekend if Thursday holds normally and bounces aren’t too muted.
  10. China BO and reception served as a sort of catalyst imo, but my concerns came from a combination of: low DOM presales low DOM tracking terrible China BO terrible China reception very weak SK PS (J2 wasn’t big in SK, but it’s a third market that I understand decently well with very concrete issues) Being a sequel (not to an 80s movie) contributes to worse legs than J2, DOM and OS-C TROS likely being received better than TLJ (regression to the mean) contributes to worse legs than J2, DOM and OS-C Coming out a weak before SW instead of a week after contributes to worse legs than J2, DOM and OS-C Weak OS-C debuts and poor WW-C reception would have been the icing on a disaster cake, but neither were actually a big factor driving my concerns. Basically everything listed above still seems like an issue to me. Even 44*5.5=242 DOM, same DOM:OS-C ratio as J2 gives 287 OS-C, plus a generous 41 China is 570, and that still looks optimistic to me.
  11. The reviews don’t surprise me much and I still think it’s headed to mid 500s or so.
  12. It’s possible but not very likely. That said, START-UP does have more sneaks today, so I have no idea how strong its proper PS are 🤷‍♂️ If it disappoints+this weekend is as strong as I hope for F2, it would it be that outlandish.
  13. It’s possible but not very likely. That said, START-UP does have more sneaks today, so I have no idea how strong its proper PS are 🤷‍♂️ If it disappoints+this weekend is as strong as I hope for F2, it would it be that outlandish.
  14. Without ~$115, with low 120s. SW9 still no meaningful show number for PS, but I’m personally thinking $15Mish.
  15. Does it? WW peak was 17:00 Dec 8, 30 days claims to cover Dec 8 but is unclear about the hour I suppose. Maybe things will look different tomorrow 🤷‍♂️ The larger point is that WW’s box office should be better relative to internet buzz, because of the expected audience composition. The relative internet metrics from first trailers tell very little about how big either will be except to mostly rule out really low numbers.
  16. Uhhh, yeah. Trailers don’t necessarily indicate level of camp. Somebody who’s seen all 160 minutes would have a much better idea.
  17. Not really in a position to answer that part, but locals doing 9M+: 2018 — 1 2017 — 2 2016 — 2 2015 — 2 2014 — 2 2013 — 4 2012 — 2 So, 2019 seems like it’s been a fine and in fact stronger than average year for local biggies to me. Could pick up a 4th in December, which is a very common release month for local biggies.
  18. Extreme Job became #2 just earlier this year. Parasite and EXIT did well too in June/Aug. I think imbruglia mentioned something about 2 or 3 local biggies this winter but I’m not convinced about START-UP anymore. Pass 12M imo. Maybe 12.1ish?
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.