Cooper Legion

Cmon STX, just give us 666,666. You know you wanna

The Arrowverse is solid relative to the channel it airs on, but tying their high budget streaming war fare to it would have been a disaster.

For those wondering, not a result of a silly Sunday. Sat apparently came in just 16M. Having some doubts about Shrek 2.

7 in 2021 does seem like too much, which is why I expect them to squeeze at least one show up to the relatively barren 2020. WandaVision and Loki have their release dates kind of fixed by whatever their relation is to DS2. Of the 3 later announced shows it seems like Ms. Marvel is earliest in production, might slot nicely into Dec 2020.

??? I see no indication that Hawkeye has been moved from its originally announced schedule or had its production slowed in anyway. Looks like a speed up rather than a swap out.

Huh. It’s 15k, but I’ll still go for 105k here.

Early number 525k, so call it 530k. More normal CGV ratio than yesterday. Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross (Total) Admissions (Total) Number of Screens Revenue Share 1 Frozen 2 U.S. Nov 21, 2019 $3,808,563 ($75,128,159) 525,346 (10,697,866) 1,831 59.87% 2 FORD v FERRARI U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $1,019,667 ($3,441,120) 132,231 (456,116) 925 16.03% 3 KNIVES OUT U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $433,186 ($1,656,512) 58,532 (236,586) 654 6.81% 4 A Little Princess South Korea Dec 04, 2019 $393,177 ($1,716,225) 55,643 (263,328) 691 6.18% 5 Last Christmas U.S. Dec 05, 2019 $266,436 ($1,014,781) 36,323 (143,729) 587 4.18% 6 BLACK MONEY South Korea Nov 13, 2019 $164,949 ($17,207,086) 22,203 (2,428,344) 436 2.59% And here’s updated projection table. Please keep in mind that no HW movie this decade had gotten to 12 before this year. cume Week drops Wk mult finish 10.70 2.12 55.0% 1.82 12.436 10.70 2.12 52.5% 1.90 12.620 10.70 2.12 50.0% 2.00 12.821 10.70 2.12 47.5% 2.11 13.045 10.70 2.12 45.0% 2.22 13.293 10.70 2.12 42.5% 2.35 13.570 10.70 2.12 40.0% 2.50 13.881 10.70 2.12 37.5% 2.67 14.235 10.70 2.12 35.0% 2.86 14.639

I don’t necessarily expect 2nd season of any currently announced show except WhatIf, a long time from now. But maybe a few will. @ZeeSoh, @Darth Lehnsherr, I guess you missed the news out of CCXP that She-Hulk, Ms Marvel, Moon Knight are all on schedule to be wrapped by 2020. At slowest we could see, out of the 8 announced D+ shows, maybe 1 in 2020, 5 in 2021, 2 in early 2022. I would be on 2 in 2020 and 6 in 2021.

Date is atrocious, and numbers drop with every movie (though yeah, probably shouldn’t count Solo for that trend). Maybe it will be a nice surprise with $30, but I won’t be surprised with 2.5% of 550M or something.

With afternoon numbers feeling like I pretty much nailed this one. Would not mind to wake up to a CGV ratio surprise in the opposite direction though.

Witness the new face of cinema

Am I correct that an international thread for this movie doesn’t exist yet? That alone should have let us know we were in for a big drop 🤔

320+520

I was a bit skeptical about Steven Universe Future after the series finale seemed to resolve so much. Rarely does it feel so good to be so wrong.

I didn’t realize there were previews included in that number, but after googling there indeed were some Thursday showings Imagine if it’s 35k previews and 132k True, shot at records would be a lot better. Is Saturday looking weak enough?

I think they will squeeze one of the 3 undated into 2020 after Eternals.

Sadly Oogieloves looks out of reach with Friday coming in 20% (i.e. 27k 🤣) over Asgardian estimates. Doesn’t look to have a good shot at Oogieloves adjusted or Delgo unadjusted either, both low 500k. Now Delgo adjusts to 650k, so 2nd lowest adjusted is totally within our sight 😛

2M likes or bust

Wow, I barely recognized Comer from the first time I watched the trailer. This has people that I like and a premise with some potential, but I doubt I catch it in theaters unless reception is stellar.

DS 96th WW, so in BW’s release spot about 785M would be similar.

This reminds me of the day that Jem had a 9 dollar PTA. That’s like one person per theater.

I agree ~24 OW. x1.67 seems generous

On 00:20 of Day N I record the KOBIS PS, which are now all for day N and forward. Divide CGV PS by a ratio related to the estimated final CGV ratio of the day (a bit higher, since I assume as a main chain CGV has a higher concentration of presale than end of day business) to estimate overall PS for day N. Then you can divide estimated Day N overall PS by KOBIS to see what % went to a Day N, and subtract from KOBIS to see what quantity is for Day N+1 forward. In this case, Sat 00:20 KOBIS was 357k, and with 128k CGV I estimate roughly 265k overall PS for Sat. So about 74% of PS for Sat forward were for Sat exactly, and there were roughly 92k presale for Sun forward. By the time of 00:20 Sun, Sun forward presale are 229k, a growth of roughly 150%. About 95% of them have gone to Sun exactly in the form of 114k CGV Sun PS= approx 217k overall Sun PS. That leaves about 12k right now for Mon forward. Unfortunately, I only added this KOBIS tracking to the sheet starting a bit of the way through F2’s run. If I wanted to use that fact to try to forecast a Mon number before seeing any direct Mon data, I would have to compare to the behavior of F2’s 2nd Mon, and I don’t think that would come out quite right (just for kicks, getting 14k CHV PS and 105k day — Don’t take that too seriously here). The idea is to eventually have a bank of data for KOBIS/overall PS behavior of movies, and then perhaps we can estimate a day or two further ahead for movies in late 2020 or 2021 with decent results.

No, I’m saying that the 3rd weekend was destined for a serious drop since the 2nd was so ridiculous, but since the 3rd is more reasonable there is some room to hope that the 4th weekend drop will be nicer. That said 4th week could also drop high 40s and it would still be on track for an incredible 13M+ admits.

Oof, wow. Final CGV as expected, but an over 48% CGV ratio is surprisingly bad compared to OD, 1st Fri, and Culture Day which all had very similar final CGV. CGV PS at 114k, thinking a 520k day after how Sat went. Would be a 1.37M weekend which is still a respectable 47.5% drop or so, better than things could have gone. I recommend everybody with high hopes wait for an idea of next week.