Cooper Legion

6 Iron Man 3 BV $1,214.8 $409.0 33.7% $805.8 66.3% 2013

11:20 ; 15:20 ; projected final ; projected admits (vs yesterday) EXIT 153 ; 244 ; 353-371 ; 792k (-0%) TDF 31 ; 53 ; 81-86 ; 209k (-10.5%) SLoP2 28 ; 43 ; 48 ; 103k (-17.5%) TLK 22 ; 33 ; 44 ; 93k (-10%) Aladdin 24 ; 34 ; 44 ; 79k (-9%) It’s still 3 PM Sunday, and first Sun for most of these movies, so nights might go a bit different than that. EXIT having a really excellent opening, should remain strong for weeks to come given reception. The Divine Fury, SLoP2, and TLK don’t seem as more formidable, Aladdin should be above the latter two fairly soon I hope.

Funny reread indeed. I say 2.35 several times before presales really get going, and I remembering thinking something like “boy, this is optimistic. Am I being too ruled by my heart? No, no, 2.35 is actually possible on the higher end.”

Should be a small drop then, excellent.

Looking at Ultron, TA profit must have been mid 500s or so. Can’t wait for the 2019 profit showdown, Disney/MCU/Endgame in particular are going to absolutely slay.

Avengers: 623 DOM, ~343 rev 809 OS-C, ~324 rev 86 C, ~20 rev Total theatrical rev ~ 687M F7: 353 DOM, ~194 rev 772 OS-C, ~309 rev 391 C, ~90 rev total theatrical rev ~593, so just having the money from other places lowers by $100M furious also has a lot of backend deals considering the long-running nature and the star studded cast (Avengers cast was much cheaper for TA than Endgame). That said, Deadline still estimated 350M+ profit for F7. Jat was mentioning ~400M in ancillary revenue for F7 mean that H&S might barely break even if it come soon in the low end of what looks right atm.

Well hey, if you just add up the two numbers in the title at least it isn’t too far from the right WW gross 😕

The Honorable Mentions that year weren’t simply 11th-15th place, but the top 5 movies outside the top 10 with production budgets of 40M or less. https://deadline.com/2018/03/movie-profit-2017-baby-driver-wonder-split-annabelle-creation-girls-trip-1202354131/ I think it’s a pretty safe bet that it made more profit than 50M, even if a lot of the gross was from OS/C.

Damn you HeroicPiglet, damn you. Now I will be slightly bugged when it hits 858

Oh, yikes, what a typo. Yes, <124M total profit after theatrical rev, HV, TV, other ancillaries, production cost, P&A, other costs, etc. using those numbers (450, 370) it looks like it wouldn’t have missed their top 10 profit that year by very much.

~1.35x prod budget as revenue For comparison, F8: DOM 226M gross, ~124 rev OS-C 617M gross, ~247M rev C 393M gross (is this actually right? Looks like the ERs were stable so BOM shouldn’t have fucked it up too much), ~83 rev 455M or so total rev on an estimated 250M budget, 1.82x (roughly). Yet Deadline estimated revenue as less than 124M. A lot of missing data from out perspective, but my best guess would be that it makes money but not that much money.

I didn’t say “most people’s range.” I said my range. I, personally, was not particularly shocked by I2’s run since it was pretty close to what seemed reasonable to me well in advance.

Not sure if I have any I2 predictions down on paper, but I think I thought 500-650 was the range. Spent 14 years being one of the most anticipated sequels.

God it all makes so much sense now

They don’t “contribute” in Forbes as supposedly box office knowledgeable people.

I was never saying hello to it, but yeah, not happening without shocking legs/China.

That was Good Friday. Easter Fri:Wknd ratios are always unusually low.

Hmm, pretty close on the Hollywood movies, relatively big difference on the top 2. Both should be adjusted as the final theaters and numbers get tabulated,so hopefully they’re in total agreement in 24 hours or so. Thanks for bringing that to my attention, if the KOBIS early numbers prove more accurate than KOBIZ I’ll switch to them.

Whaaaaat!? I had no idea. Those are from KOBIZ, which AFAIK is just English KOBIS. I would have assumed the numbers would be identical.

Worked out pretty well. I hit Aladdin final CGV on the head but that damn CGV ratio just won’t go back down. Aug 03, 2019 Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross (Total) Admissions (Total) Number of Screens Revenue Share 1 EXIT South Korea Jul 31, 2019 $5,516,224 ($14,572,782) 749,544 (2,146,442) 1,576 55.42% 2 The Divine Fury South Korea Jul 31, 2019 $1,620,681 ($6,045,665) 219,324 (948,489) 1,137 16.28% 3 The Secret Life of Pets 2 U.S. Jul 31, 2019 $853,665 ($3,285,040) 124,028 (527,585) 930 8.57% 4 The Lion King U.S. Jul 17, 2019 $728,143 ($32,294,496) 101,189 (4,411,337) 833 7.31% 5 Aladdin U.S. May 23, 2019 $626,008 ($86,234,414) 83,878 (12,152,746) 686 6.28% 6 Red Shoes South Korea Jul 25, 2019 $307,834 ($3,128,446) 45,483 (483,101) 558 3.09% Sun PS: EXIT 102 TDF 20 Slop2 18 (-18%) TLK 15 (-17%) Aladdin 18 (-10%)

Sounds like an easy 1B to me, the Lord Horn approves.

I’d watch live-action Frozen like 5 times in theaters.

Looks like roughly: Exit +57% (750) TDF +50% (235) SLoP2 +16% (125) TLK +30% (105) Aladdin +30% (90) Blah increases all ‘round, but I guess that is about 1.3M admits from the top 5 so good seats are probably getting a bit tight. Massive drop from last Saturday for Aladdin, about -50%. Can’t have another week like this and beat Endgame.

TBH if I could magically get weekend actuals for one movie 3 days early it would be Aladddin.

After the 2nd weekend, BaTB, TDKR, and JWFK were looking like decent TLK comps to me. (Incidentally all 3 of those had identical multipliers off their first Mon-Sun week — Spooky). Drop from 1st Mon-Sun to 2nd Mon-Sun: BATB 144.3-> 74.3, -48.5% TDKR 126.2-> 66.8, -47.1% JWFK 117.7-> 66.7, -43.3% (July 4 boosted. Rough way of taking that into account gives more like a 48% drop) Giving TLK a 36.2M weekend it’s looking at: 160.1->77, -51.9% Multis from this week are: TDKR 3.01x BATB 2.49x JWFK ~2.4 adjusting for July 4th Barren August but medium reception, this TLK will do closer to BATB/JWFK’s multis there for 535-550ish.