Cooper Legion

Okay, so in early 2022 we can run top 30 MCU, and then we just agree to all put them in that order for other lists from then on

They were planning to release a Fortnite movie, but Marvel beat them to the punch

Just deductively, it’s virtually impossible that TA, IW, EG, TWS, BP, IM1, GotG, or Ragnarok would have come in under e.g. IM3

Civil War 9th of the MCU huh. I’ve got it 4th but I guess the remaining 8 are pretty good too.

Lol, some Pandananigans up in here

These estimates would give me a score of 82%. Let’s see if we can’t move that up a bit with the next couple updates (47 meters down, looking at you).

Winter Soldier won’t be top 2 MCU. Possibly not even top 4, though I think it deserves to be.

Jesus Christ. The 125 WW scenario I had in mind on Tuesday might be too optimistic.

Far From Home will be the first movie to finish in the 390s, finally filling in every 10s bucket from 0 to 400M. The only remaining gap from 0 to 500M will be a finish in the 490s. Oddly the 500s range only has 2/10 buckets occupied, 00s and 30s (TLK might fill in a new bucket). Whereas the 600s have their 00s, 20s, 50s, and 70s all occupied. Also I think TS4 is missing Shrek.

Pikachu is a comedy. I guess call it genre comedy if you want.

Also The Good Boys is going to make too much money. Gimme a weak IM pls.

Well okay then. I guess BOT has some weird tastes. Maybe an influx of new blood from the glory of the last 2 years will be enough to shake things up

Just one, I suspect. Competition is pretty fierce.

40% of the top 25 then? I’ll allow it Looks like the single biggest miss will be Ant-Man and the Wasp. Maybe people will learn to appreciate it with time.

Never. They released a nice infographic for IW on Aug 31st that had updated numbers for some top markets, hoping we’ll get an even more detailed one for Endgame.

I presented two options 😛 I’m wondering if it’s multiplicative (50% and 3% bonus =51.5) or additive (50% and 3% bonus =53). There shouldn’t be much practical consequence, I just like to as clear as possible.

+3% like “50% base accuracy*1.03->51.5% final score” or +3% like “50 base accuracy +3% ->53% final score?” (Hopefully no one has a 50% base accuracy, just an easy example to work with)

Beware the fickle whims of latency.

A strong first 2 days for H&S thanks to National Liberation Day, but it looks like Friday will see huge drops for most movies, more so than last Thursday Liberation Day. Very curious to see how much frontloading there is as a result of the holiday, but it seems like it should end up better vs F8 than in most other countries.

Okay, first 2 days should be 6M+, so even adjusting for the holiday debut I think beating F8 there is very likely.

Ah, the OD was skewed by National Liberation Day today. Lemme check 2013 openers (last time Liberation Day was a Thurs) and see how much it skews the legs.

I know what F8 did. First two days for H&S are pretty strong and reception looks solid 🤷‍♂️

I think SK will come through for more like 30-40, so I need China to hate it for that sub 500 to work out. Doesn’t look to be too far off atm though.

There's a very philosophical coherent case to be made that a small recession which causes Trump to lose would be a net good thing for people. Of course, there was also a very philosophically coherent case to be that a small recession in 2011/2003/1995/etc which caused Obama/Bush/Clinton/etc to lose would have been a good thing. It's impossible to believe that it matters which party controls the White House without believing that a certain amount of otherwise bad stuff is an acceptable tradeoff for a certain % increase in the chance of your favored party controlling it.