Cooper Legion

Very (very) early estimate of 39-43 for pure Friday, trying to make conservative assumptions.

8.8. Think maybe 95-100

You’ve got to be fucking kidding me. I can’t believe someone would be so clueless about what’s going on with the Audience score, so I guess you’re just trolling instead. Congrats, I guess.

205-215 imo, though would love to see higher. Hope the Saturday bump is good.

25.2

I don’t like the L-word, but 1B looking pretty locked. O/U AQM/CW imo. Incidentally I made a prediction 180/550/1.2B two weeks ago, would now go 50-100 less DOM but maybe +50 OS.

Finally watched this proper. Vacillating between two reactions: Man, that was great. Loved Brie even if she didn’t have too much to work with, Fury great, Talos+family were great, Goose was great, Rambeaus were great. Eh, that felt somehow kind of... weightless? Maybe it’s just being set way before the main storyline (I also had an issue with this in WW, though oddly not Captain America 1). Maybe the amnesiac structure, though that was at least somewhat fresh. The whole Kree stuff was underdeveloped, Ronan, Minn-Erva, Mar-Vell, Yon Rogg, Supreme Intelligence all kind of flat. I’m fine with the Avengers being named after her (hope there’s a joke about this in Endgame, like “We’re the Avengers.” “Did Fury name you?” “Yeah, why?” “Geeze, what a softie.”) and him losing his eye to Goose. Fine with the Skrulls being good, though I think they could still be villains 24 years later. One thing this movie did not do a very good job of imo is justifying why Fury never used the pager before for world-scale threats, or why Carol didn’t return of her own accord to check in with her family between saving alien worlds. Hopefully Endgame or her sequels can resolve that more satisfactorily. Overall I expect to watch it a few more times, we’ll see how my opinion changes, but people ranks somewhere 9-12.

It increased from OD? Is that normal for Indonesia? Doesn’t seem to be usual for Thursday after Wednesday openings in e.g. SK

Still 8.9. The 9-10% minus 1-2% figure has been pretty stable, both slowly bleeding into 7-8% for now.

I believe Deadline’s preview estimate contained the (Mis)information about 6 vs 7 start times.

High end: Classic Deadline lowball-> 26.5 previews-> big critic to DOM audience disconnect-> 7.85x IM-> top 4 OW I’d give that like 1%. More realistic is something like 23*7.4->170.

Doubling time conventionally around 14:30, iirc?

Ah, but are you accounting for the $20M boost when she shows up in an Endgame trailer for the first time

Fun tidbit in that Deadline update that 22.3+ would make it the highest single movie daily gross of 2019.

What nonsense is this? Deadline posts basically the reasonable expected range? Now there isn’t anything for either side to freak out about until they update in an aeon 😕

Ahh, yup yup yup. The mega grossers come to mind more readily for me than the well budgeted hits. Probably also some of the Raimi trilogy: SM1: budget 139, OS-C 415, — seems profitable SM2: budget 200, OS-C 405, — doubt it SM3: budget 258, OS-C 535+ 20 in China — skeptical TDK: budget 185, OS-C 470 — seems close TDKR: Budget 250, OS-C 585+ 50 in China — don’t think so, but at least close Not as exclusive a club as I thought, and only mentioned 21st century movies so far. Really shows the incredibly success of the genre in this moment.

I’m not a profitability estimate expert, but pretty sure CM would profit with a 0M DOM total 😂 I wonder how many other SH movies that is true for. Avengers, IW, (Endgame), BP, AoU?, IM3?, AQM?, CW?, I2??

Charlie expected to have an estimate ~7 AM Friday iirc, so we’ll still have a good 12+ hours to freak out about Deadline numbers that miss by 30% anyway.

Final Serious prediction before any numbers is 180. But as a first entry movie that’s doing gangbusters OS and has an estimated 152 budget, even 130 or something would still be a strong result.

Too bad but it certainly makes sense for theater people to be busy today. Many thanks to him and you for the tidbits we do get. Also it would still be valuable to know what today’s CM number was even if we didn’t learn it until after the OW, for the purpose of future comps — not sure if that data is even easily retrievable afterward.

25% higher than BP so far in AUS, would translate to some 10.5ish USD (can vary by a decent bit based on FSS). US OW is generally some 15-17x the AUS one, for maybe 157-178, but it’s not a hard and fast rule. BP was much stronger in the Us relative to AUS than usual. I posted a lot more detail in the AUS thread yesterday.

Linear extrapolation from yesterday is 49,745*39341/28795=68k. Lower than early in the day, but not sure how it moves once showings actually begin.

I knew they were true when they happened, but it was important to preserve the ambiguity for everyone else.

75 OW is coming

Hmm, so it did. Side effect of “quote selection,” I guess. Well, I was just making fun of the tweet’s low end