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Cooper Legion

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Everything posted by Cooper Legion

  1. Cooper Legion
    I was responding to MrGlass’s comment about how the solo SH record was just broken 3 times in a row by 3 consecutive solo SH releases. To go 4 for 4 would require like a 2.5+ multi, seems a complete fantasy at this point. Over CW in USD would be nice to see as a more realistic goal.
  2. Cooper Legion
    Well, IM’2 OW included May Day, and IM3’s didn’t. Not sure just how big that is in France.
  3. Cooper Legion
    CM OW maybe even over Pika Thursday 🙄
  4. Cooper Legion
    If we get a Thurs morning Wang number, want to guess 13.2 (please don’t do any actual analysis unless he gives a real number, I am guessing purely for my own amusement). Fandango presales set to clearly outpace BP and IW’s Wed increase, maybe even DP2’s 40% growth.
  5. Cooper Legion
    I was dreaming of this a few days ago, but doesn’t sound like the reception will be there for such a high multi.
  6. Cooper Legion
    Delicious with ketchup
  7. Cooper Legion
    In danger? Yeah, very much. Even adjusted. Could miss with like 23*7->161 or something still, wouldn’t be particularly shocking.
  8. Cooper Legion
    I’ve just accepted at this point that presales will be nutty, way more than I expected even a week ago. Think previews in the ballpark of 22-26, but I’m starting to put more stock in the “MCU is notably more presale heavy and Thursday weighted post IW” hypothesis. So if it pulls 26M previews, I just can’t see that leading to a normal first entry internal multiplier of 8x for 208. Maybe something like 160-195 is my expectations atm, but the more PS’s outstrip BP the more it seems like we might not have any great comps 🤷‍♂️
  9. Cooper Legion
    Ahh, thanks, that makes sense. But I have to admit, this part was really unexpected
  10. Cooper Legion
    By the way, do we have any idea still why there are these separate CM vs CM 2019 listings on the tracker? Don’t recall that for other movies. I’m like 95% confident that they represent mutually exclusive groups of ticket sales, but it would be really bad for the data if not.
  11. Cooper Legion
    To match BP’s Wednesday Fandango bump requires +10%, for about 41k. To match IW’s Wednesday Fandango bump takes +25%, for about 46k. Currently: 12:00 40.9k 13:00 41.7k 14:00 43.1k 15:00 43.7k 16:00 45.3k Think it will outgrow both, but with 12 hours to go could always level off.
  12. Cooper Legion
    It was very courteous of Marvel to give us some training wheels just 7 weeks before the main course.
  13. Cooper Legion
    So that “maybe I’ll go to sleep earlier today” thing didn’t exactly work out. After the brief ups and downs earlier I’m right back at expecting 42, but maybe the night will surprise.
  14. Cooper Legion
    Behind CW, AoU, BP, IW, and maybe SMHC is 6th, maybe 5th, no? Still either 2nd or third best not to feature Iron Man+Cap.
  15. Cooper Legion
    Indonesia feels like one of the most important markets to watch for the next decade. Can’t wait for the Endgame Numbers there.
  16. Cooper Legion
    Some of these are way too high, some are way too low, some are summer, some franchises particularly walkup friendly or not, theaters not exactly the same, 2 days left, etc. Use with caution. Still, figured people would be interested in the numbers anyway, so there they are.
  17. Cooper Legion
    Been meaning to ask, for the movies with Thurs numbers are those also theough midnight? Or only through when previews start?
  18. Cooper Legion
    Also serious danger if you visit that reddit, some Endgame “spoilers” went up that are the first I’d consider really believable.
  19. Cooper Legion
    Timing and detail. Several hours after the red carpet something like this always goes up, and it’s always right. After all, enough people who use the reddit by then have actually seen the movie that if someone posts bullshit by then they get discredited quickly.
  20. Cooper Legion
    I lacked the will to avoid these. Sounds great.
  21. Cooper Legion
    To some extent yes, but I’d certainly be less likely to buy tickets for a movie coming up on the weekend while I’m eating a meal, and at least in US lunchtimes are more concentrated in a certain hour than dinner. Anyway, have observed it enough now that I’ve come to expect it, but no explanation I’m super sure about. Will see if PS continue to dip at noon or not for other runs.
  22. Cooper Legion
    Yes, typo. Thanks and fixed. Just got curious what the patterns throughout the day were and wanted to be at least a bit familiar with them for Endgame, which I’m sure I’ll follow even more obsessively. But anyone else finding it interesting is a great bonus. 12:00 to 12:30 is only +.26, but I’ll point out that period is usually 25% or less the nearby hourly rate rather than 50%, not sure why but maybe to do with lunch.
  23. Cooper Legion
    Should beat BP on Fandango for today, but pretty tough to tell how meaningful that is with the review embargo drop. Perhaps better to compare to IW today, which had the same embargo release timing. IW Fandango tickets on Tues were +10% of Mon, same for CM would be 37.4k. That looks pretty close. Edit 23:00 38.2k 00:00 38.4k Wait for CoolEric in about an hour to calculate the more precise number, but I think it will be above 37.4k
  24. Cooper Legion
    Today: 7-10 +.58 10-11 +.87 Roughly double Mon pace so far, so perhaps add 13? My targets roughly 14:00 34.2, 17:30 37.3, midnight 42.6. However, would not be surprised with additional acceleration at night today since it’s so close. Half hour update as usual. 12:00 update: +1.14 this hour, so we can safely expect it to exceed above, perhaps by a big margin. Seems like the daily pattern so close to release will be different than previous days, so won’t even try to give a new trajectory. Just sit back and enjoy 13:00 update: +.85 despite the big noon slowdown. Maybe hourly rate shall stabilize around 1.2, maybe higher still? 45+ seems on the way for that +50% POTUS was always expecting 16:00 update: Looks like 11 was actually the outlier rather than a harbinger of a new pace. Last several hours seems to be ~.7 per. Maybe ending around 41-43 after all. This might be the last update, going to sleep too late several days in a row starting to take its toll.
  25. Cooper Legion
    22:00 38.8k 23:00 38.2k 00:00 38.4k Looking to beat BP imo, but we’ll see how next 3 hours go.
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