Cooper Legion

So, at a very casual analysis, IW's last 2 weeks have been running about 133% of JW's, and JW made 15.5 more, and 133% of 15.5 would be 20.7 more for 691.8. However, of that 15.5M that JW made, something like 10M of it is attributable to the Labor Day reexpansion, which IW won't have anything similar too. More realistically if it does some 150% of JW's "natural" run from here that would be maybe 9M for a 680 finish. 19M more off fa 4M weekend just isn't happening without some kind of large, specific, unexpected circumstance.

Also just watched The Prestige for the first time, absolutely unspoiled about everything. Another Christopher Nolan movie that has a really promising first 3/4s but introduces/dials up some magical nonsense and fails to stick the landing (Inception worked a lot better than Prestige and Interstellar though). Edit: Also, holy Christ, that movie was jam packed with actors from superhero movies. In addition to Batman, Wolverine, Alfred, and Black Widow it even had Klaue and Maya Hansen.

I thought Wind River was pretty great, Hell or High Water too, yet to see the Sicarios.

40 for I2 would be Still, not really going to pay attention to anything until we have reliable Fri numbers.

Nearly identical WW-China 34% drop, but TLJ was about -65% in China and FK will be +10% or so.

Wouldn’t be surprised if I2 gets the bulk of AM&tW double features either, given the tonal fit (and the fact that WiT doesn’t need anymore 😛).

What wasn’t?

Yeah, JWFK is just about the only big movie this year that tracking really nailed -- BP, IW, and I2 went above theirs, DP and Solo below, but FK landed right in the window of long and short term tracking. That's part of why you saw a lot of people describing it as medium, imo.

Applying the smallest of the 4 threequel bumps (IW, lol) would get it to 197.4 Now there are a few totally reasonable arguments why it might set a new record low threequel bump. It's not like the current sample size is super big. But the numbers are pretty clear there for it, historically.

Oh, IX is another strong contender depending upon reception. GotG2 wasn't that great, but neither was Iron Man 2, Thor 2, or Avengers 2 -- the movies that people will be remembering then from more will be Infinity War and Avengers: Far From Title Announcement

Really, not anywhere near? GotG2 did 146, so 3 should be looking at 150+ almost certainly. This'll be their first movie after featuring in a pair of Avengers movies, so it should see a healthy bump, and it would only need a 36.5% increase to hit 200. I wouldn't actually say it's favored, but it should be decently close.

GotG3

Cassie is my favorite character, as with the last one. Going to be so cool when she finally starts to be Stature after we've seen like 10 years pass for the character onscreen.

Like the handling of Ghost, Goliath, and Janet, hope we see more of all of them moving forward. Was expecting 1-2 characters dusted, not 3, but I guess that explains why no one but Ant-Man has much of an A4 role

Leto honest to god feels like a troll casting. Are we actually expecting this movie to exist? Hopefully not.

Looks to me like I2 will only end up #9 on the domestic chart. A great overall number, but does seems like an OW fueled by superhero fans is leading to more of a (strong) superhero multi than an animated multi.

Wow, 3.6 below early estimates

Props to JW, it’s holding better than I thought and should pass the original with a very healthy multi. IW should pass 2390 but not 2400, right? A bit bittersweet, but at least the 23 poster is the perfect ending.

This would be less than half of Ultron’s DOM drop, and Ultron is looking a lot better now that TLJ and FK happened. You’d definitely have people disappointed though, very reasonably.

That’s also my usual assumption, but I feel like the part 1 part 2 nature complicates things a bit — TA was a nice pretty self-contained narrative that didn’t really leave anyone desperately needing to see what happened in AoU. IW’s cliffhanger ending really incentivized anyone who saw and liked it (quite a lot of the world) to at least see the next one. Right now I’m expecting the “sequel to a breakout drops” effect to perhaps roughly cancel the DH2 effect, maybe: 700 DOM (270*2.6) 400 China 1.05 OS-China 2.15 WW Even if it falls below IW DOM, China, and Os-China, the finale nature should lead to a higher preview number and a very good shot to beat the adjusted OW record imo.

Literally it ranks 20th on the OW charts. For some movies that would be impressive. For a sequel to a #1 opener it is absolutely not that impressive.

When god is silent, the mortals follow.

Disappointing weekend for IW, looks to be missing TDK adjusted unless actuals can improve.

The optimistic case is like 150*2.8 for 420. If it is able to leg out like that I’ll move my evaluation from “medium, solid, totally respectable performance” to “upper end of medium.”

Nobody was saying that 700 was locked for IW or I2, merely that it was on the table. And it was. So not really sure I understand your point.