Cooper Legion

Wow, 3.6 below early estimates

Props to JW, it’s holding better than I thought and should pass the original with a very healthy multi. IW should pass 2390 but not 2400, right? A bit bittersweet, but at least the 23 poster is the perfect ending.

This would be less than half of Ultron’s DOM drop, and Ultron is looking a lot better now that TLJ and FK happened. You’d definitely have people disappointed though, very reasonably.

That’s also my usual assumption, but I feel like the part 1 part 2 nature complicates things a bit — TA was a nice pretty self-contained narrative that didn’t really leave anyone desperately needing to see what happened in AoU. IW’s cliffhanger ending really incentivized anyone who saw and liked it (quite a lot of the world) to at least see the next one. Right now I’m expecting the “sequel to a breakout drops” effect to perhaps roughly cancel the DH2 effect, maybe: 700 DOM (270*2.6) 400 China 1.05 OS-China 2.15 WW Even if it falls below IW DOM, China, and Os-China, the finale nature should lead to a higher preview number and a very good shot to beat the adjusted OW record imo.

Literally it ranks 20th on the OW charts. For some movies that would be impressive. For a sequel to a #1 opener it is absolutely not that impressive.

When god is silent, the mortals follow.

Disappointing weekend for IW, looks to be missing TDK adjusted unless actuals can improve.

The optimistic case is like 150*2.8 for 420. If it is able to leg out like that I’ll move my evaluation from “medium, solid, totally respectable performance” to “upper end of medium.”

Nobody was saying that 700 was locked for IW or I2, merely that it was on the table. And it was. So not really sure I understand your point.

In fact, decided to do a little digging with numbers. When JW1 came out, this is how many films had reached those numbers: 145+ OW: 10 375+ DOM: 24 1B+ WW: 22 And now: 145+ OW: 21 (+110%) 375+ DOM: 37 (+54%) 1B+ WW: 35 (+59%) It’s not that these are small numbers, or something idiotic like that. It’s still approximately the 20th biggest unadjusted opening in history. But they aren’t big boy numbers either, not anymore. In 2015 JW played like a top dog, and now it isn’t. Many people have been expecting that for a while, and it fell less than it could have, but it’s still not an unreasonable thing to point out.

There are many films for which 145/375/1B would be incredibly dissapointing. Welcome to 2018, where numbers that used to be BIG aren’t necessarily anymore.

I hope you realize that there is nothing inconsistent about those two things. If a movie needed a 50M OW to be not dissapointing, and someone predicted 20M, and it came in at 35 M, they’d be perfectly fine saying “this did 75% better than I thought it would, but looked at in a broader context the numbers aren’t that great.”

Well, I mean, 145 isn’t great exactly for a sequel to a 208 opener, but it could have been a lot worse. This is one of those middle results that isn’t really going to do too much in terms of sparking crazy reactions.

Top Movies this year: 1) Infinity War Gap 2) Black Panther 3) Incredibles 2 Gap 4) Deadpool 2 I guess technically some other movies came out this year but I made like the GA and didn’t watch them in theaters

I don’t see anyone in my theater’s parking lot.

I believe we learned quite recently that surprise cliffhanger endings lead to good multis if done well

It's ranked above #1, only those who are truly worthy can see it.

Incredibles 2 might not even be able to pass TLJ, totally C R U M B L I N G

Damn, you had me thinking that there was a single movie titled “Lobster Cop and The Way of the Bug” there. China, please deliver on this massive crossover potential.

I have my differences with @That One Guy sometimes, but his recent post is a high-effort masterpiece and I will not stand for anyone trying to tell him otherwise.

Speaking of queerbaiting

Oh deadline, off by 25% So the kingdom isn’t falling after all, good for it. Still probably won’t be a top 20 OW, which is an unprecedented drop from #1, but at least it has a good chance to make the yearly top 5 now.

Crazy to think that just one year ago, nobody liked Thor, 400 was seen as the max a solo MCU could do DOM, Thanos was a purple thumb joke — and JL, TLJ, Solo, and FK all hadn’t happened yet. Who knows what what the next year will bring.

Also worth noting that it seems no sequel to a OW record breaker has managed to also place at #1 in the modern era — if A4 can get there it will be the first since JP:LW.