Cooper Legion
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Everything posted by Cooper Legion
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Credit to u/NostalgiaZombie on reddit
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Jumanji made a bit under 2 Solos DOM and a bit over 2 Solos WW, exactly as every single person here would have predicted if you asked them a year ago
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Lesson of the summer so far: Brolin in 3rd movie good, Brolin in 2nd movie bad. Things looking grim for Soldado’s legs
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Incredibles 2 JW2 Ant-Man and the Wasp Deadpool 2 MI:Fallout??? Man, this is truly a summer of sequels.
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They were off by barely (a factor of) .5
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365 China 670 DOM Would only need 965 from OS-China. It will be close, but I still think it will get there.
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On Jan 1st this year, you could have a gentlemanly debate about relative franchise power. Then TLJ fell off a cliff with domestic legs. Then BP grossed top 3 DOM. Then IW got a gross that would be good for top 3 DOM at the start of the year, plus top 3 OS. Then Solo. Now there is no gentlemanly discussion to be had, just one single obvious answer.
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So IW will end up 5th in USD for sure, right? 17th in admissions? Or is there a chance to leg past Attorney for 16th+?
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Wait, you’re still allowed to post in this thread!? Weekend’s almost over man, how is this possible?
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Bingo. That’s really all there is to it. Which one is “worse” is pretty meaningless.
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Having the BO so far propped up 26% by back to back entries in a franchise is really bonkers.
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If we give someone a cape and paint them blue, can we finally get past 3B? I’d take the under, but at least over still has a chance.
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Ahh, gotcha. Yeah, think I agree. Would be lucky to hit 240+200 unless it goes crazy in Japan.
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Uhh, not really? 24.6 takes Solo to 60.2. Go very pessimistic with 21 Sun, 17 Mon is a 98 and change 4-day. An awful 4-day multi would be 1.95 for 191.1, beating Thor by over 10M. It would need a mind-bogglingly bad multi to go under Thor from here, and WOM doesn’t seem to indicate that as a possibility.
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10% Sun drop would be a tad over 14M on Sun for a 42M 3-day. 66.6% drop or so.
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190-250, 350-500 Roughly.
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Like I thought, lower third of EC’s range for Solo. Pretty much exactly what I’d expect after Friday, should make 100M 4-day very close. +30.5% for DP2 is pretty weak after the low Friday. +52.8% for IW is in the expected 45-55% range, but in the top quartile. Good number. +32.6% for Book Club, I can’t comment as well on how a movie like it should be playing but it seems good not great to me.
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Just shove a Star Wars/Avatar crossover into December, EZPZ
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The trade 114 4-day has been insanely optimistic since we got the 35.6 final OD estimate. If someone was actually hoping to hit that I could see how these Sat numbers would be bad, but... shouldn’t really have been viewing 114 as being in play, in my opinion.
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Alright, good to know. 360 rather than 350 helps keep 2B on track with a DOM Numbers being a tad on the lighter side.
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Call it 25 Sat, 22.4 Sun, 83 3-day, that’s an IM of 5.88. Best for a Disney Star Wars film, but hardly impressive with such low absolute preview #s.
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Sure, but, like... these numbers are so medium. If you wanted the numbers to be good, there’s not much to make a fuss about, because the top end is medium good. If you wanted the numbers to be especially bad, there’s not much to fuss about, because the low end is medium bad. 25+/-1 is just about the most boring Sat projection we could have gotten (though of course I still appreciate @EmpireCity giving it to us — confirms neither an anomalously good or bad Sat increase).
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26M is a disaster for a Star Wars movie, but we already knew this movie’s financials were a disaster. It’s baked in. We knew there would be an awful Saturday when we saw the awful preview number+true Friday. In the context of those two, 26M is a better than expected number. I am personally expecting it closer to 24, which would basically change nothing.
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I don’t understand the reaction to these numbers. True Friday was 21.5. Sat increases on MW are muted, 10% was possible. This range is an 11.6-20.9% increase. It’s literally above my expectations.
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Serious numbers, he has access to insider data.
