Cooper Legion

To be clear, this is if an extension happens? How likely is that? Or was one just recently confirmed?

I see the BOT overreaction squad is out is full force. This is is an awful result, but things will be smooth sailing for Kennedy unless IX demonstrates that the brand damage affects main episodes to a serious degree (which I think is quite possible, but far from guaranteed).

Avengers holds the record for a bit over 5 years, only to see Coco decisively top it. So the Avengers franchise lets Coco keep it for a bit over 5 months before coming back with a vengeance If A4 can also break 1B that will be kind of insane -- nothing gets even 5/6ths of the way there for so long, and then as soon as one goes over you have 3 past the mark in under 2 years!

Marvel Cinematic Universe films: 1. Iron Man 2. The Incredible Hulk 3. Iron Man 2 4. Thor 5. Captain America: The First Avenger 6. The Avengers 7. Iron Man 3 8. Thor: The Dark World 9.Captain America: Winter Soldier 10. Guardians of the Galaxy 11. Avengers: Age of Ultron 12. Ant-Man 13. Captain America: Civil War 14. Doctor Strange 15. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 16. Spider-Man: Homecoming 17. Thor: Ragnarok 18. Black Panther 19. Avengers: Infinity War

A3->300M and change A4->400M and change Please China, give us our first movie above 400 in multiple markets.

So I just checked every past MCU May release (IM1, IM2, Thor, Avengers, IM3, AoU, CW, GotG2) and their internal Memorial weekend behavior is extremely consistent — 45-55% increase Sat, 0-10% decrease Sun, Mon is worth 2/7th of the 3-day. Then the amount they add after Mon is 2-2.75x the 3-day. Using IW’s 4.25 Fri, we get a Sat between 6.16 and 6.59, then a Sun between 5.55 and 6.59, for a 3-day of 15.96-17.42. 4-day of 20.5-22.4. Anything outside those numbers would constitute exceptional behavior. The pessimistic weekend leads leads to a total of 605+20.5+16*[2,2.75]= 657 to 670 The optimistic weekend leads leads to a total of 605+22.4+17.4*[2,2.75]=662 to 675 So unfortunately it looks like we’re landing between Titanic and TDK adjusted, unless IW can really surprise.

My knowledge of fight scenes is pretty low. I’ll take a shot in the dark with the Winter Soldier elevator scene, since it’s the most memorable one for me.

So I know there has been a lot of crazy news for Solo from all over the world the past few days, but I think the one that will stick with me years from now is Solo opening Friday ~= IW 5th Friday in Brazil. Like, WHAT!?

IW 5th Sat and Sun over Solo opening Sat and Sun

When having 0 good markets is your positive spin

Oh, so it’s medium crumbling. The most boring timeline. Meh number for DP2. Insanely good for IW though Edit: Misremebered last Fri numbers for IW, whoops. Still pretty solid.

Well, it’s not great.

TFA 1131M RO 524M TLJ 712M Solo 200-250M? Obviously there are individual factors for each movie that make it a lot harder to extract a real trend, but I'd put IX under TLJ rather than over if I was forced to pick right now.

Is Solo flopping worldwide? Yes. Is it no longer looking to flop as hard as it could have? Also Yes. Is Star Wars as a larger franchise still very much alive and formidable. Yes again.

If this hits 100M 3-day after all of this, it's going to be kind of a letdown in terms of box office surprises. Still, much better for something to salvage itself out of being a historic run than underperform down into being a historic run.

Guys. We took less than 24 hours to talk ourselves into a position where 37M OD is seen as good for a Star Wars film. Expectation management is truly a beautiful thing.

Hmm, seems to be crumbling upward. That’s new.

What is this from?

Solo below Rogue One opening week?

From To To To What a world.

This is shockingly possible, to be honest.

In case anyone was curious, OD:total multis for Disney Star Wars are: TFA — 7.86 (great reception, winter release) RO — 7.49 (good reception, winter release) TLJ — 5.92 (divisive reception, winter release) Solo looks to have better reception than TLJ, but maybe not better than RO, and it has the worst release date by a lot. OTOH, smaller absolute numbers should help with the multi. But still, it will likely end up in the 5.5-7.5 range or so, which would give 176-240 off a 32M OD.

MCU took 10 years to outgross 50 of Bond. Only need to stick around another 10 to remain ahead of Bond another 50 years from now. Longevity will only get you so far.

We are not.

14.1 17.9 (+27%) 19.5 (+9%) 18.5 (-5%) 16 (-14%) 70M 3-day, 86M 4-day This is not my actual prediction, but it is clearly at least on the table for now. Solo is more likely to miss 200M than AM&tW.