On Jan 1st this year, you could have a gentlemanly debate about relative franchise power. Then TLJ fell off a cliff with domestic legs. Then BP grossed top 3 DOM. Then IW got a gross that would be good for top 3 DOM at the start of the year, plus top 3 OS. Then Solo.
Now there is no gentlemanly discussion to be had, just one single obvious answer.
Uhh, not really?
24.6 takes Solo to 60.2. Go very pessimistic with 21 Sun, 17 Mon is a 98 and change 4-day. An awful 4-day multi would be 1.95 for 191.1, beating Thor by over 10M.
It would need a mind-bogglingly bad multi to go under Thor from here, and WOM doesn’t seem to indicate that as a possibility.
Like I thought, lower third of EC’s range for Solo. Pretty much exactly what I’d expect after Friday, should make 100M 4-day very close.
+30.5% for DP2 is pretty weak after the low Friday.
+52.8% for IW is in the expected 45-55% range, but in the top quartile. Good number.
+32.6% for Book Club, I can’t comment as well on how a movie like it should be playing but it seems good not great to me.
The trade 114 4-day has been insanely optimistic since we got the 35.6 final OD estimate.
If someone was actually hoping to hit that I could see how these Sat numbers would be bad, but... shouldn’t really have been viewing 114 as being in play, in my opinion.
Sure, but, like... these numbers are so medium. If you wanted the numbers to be good, there’s not much to make a fuss about, because the top end is medium good. If you wanted the numbers to be especially bad, there’s not much to fuss about, because the low end is medium bad.
25+/-1 is just about the most boring Sat projection we could have gotten (though of course I still appreciate @EmpireCity giving it to us — confirms neither an anomalously good or bad Sat increase).
26M is a disaster for a Star Wars movie, but we already knew this movie’s financials were a disaster. It’s baked in. We knew there would be an awful Saturday when we saw the awful preview number+true Friday. In the context of those two, 26M is a better than expected number.
I am personally expecting it closer to 24, which would basically change nothing.
I don’t understand the reaction to these numbers. True Friday was 21.5. Sat increases on MW are muted, 10% was possible. This range is an 11.6-20.9% increase. It’s literally above my expectations.