Cooper Legion

Oh it would almost certainly be outside the first 25 movies released which would have done it with this date imo. Adjusting grabs you a MUCH wider selections. If you give me a rough sense of how much OW penalty you think apples on the date and how much legs boost I could probably find you 10 pretty fast.

Not a lot like hundreds and hundreds or anything. Maybe a dozen or two per decade? You need something that had over 3.5x or so legs at least and an 2022 OW equivalent which is substantially above 100M because switching it to a dec date would deflate the OW. The legs are clearly a great feat! — it’s just that the “2nd best evah to meat this nominal cutoff” framing leaves a bit to be desired. And yeah as far as “would movie X have opened to 100M+ in dec 22 environment” there is a bit more to think about than just gross/natl atp for the year but if you do spend the time handling it more sophisticatedly you’re going to get the same results with maybe like 10-20% fewer movies that qualify.

I’m not an avatar hater per se (I think 1 was fine but nothing special outside visuals, haven’t seen 2 yet, from trailer and reviews it seems fine but nothing special outside visuals) but I am a silly-stat-presented-straight hater, if you’re determined to frame things that way

To be clear I haven’t called anyone dumb. That would be a “personal attack” which I have learned my lesson on. Just saying that certain claims/stats/framing are dumb

80% low 🤔

Only “overly passionate” about people saying things that don’t check out when you really think about the numbers. I would point out (and have done) the same thing if someone was using numbers in a dubious way to try to make a movie or franchise that I love look great. For instance saying something like “Wow Far from Home had over 4.2 legs, one of the best legs ever for a 90M+ opener outside xmas”

I feel like understanding this intuitively is a good check for whether someone really grasps BO dynamics or not but I guess I shouldn’t say much more on that 😆

No, I don’t. I am pointing out exactly that this is a dumb way to look at it. Xmas movies generally have good multiples for extremely obvious reasons. The exceptions are mega fan events like SW and MCU which still benefit from xmas to have much better legs than with a normal date, but would have had such bad legs on a normal date from frontloaded hype demand that even with xmas the total/ow is still fairly restrained. AWOW has the good fortune to be the only December movie outside of SW/MCU to open “above 100M” in dec, which drives this particular silly stat. But the “above 100M” line is completely meaningless as a cutoff since it’s heavily affected by inflation. There are lots of movies that would have opened over 100M on this date and legged over 5, but avatar happens to be the first because of inflation+not getting a lot of December’s per year+recent tendency to put the fan monsters here rather than more midrange blockbusters.

Bold new predictions @Shawn Also given some of the other stuff currently listed, might as well put Chosen season 3 finale on the 3rd? Good chance to top 3 the weekend probably top 5 at worst.

This is such a dumb stat though, cmon. Using a nominal cutoff+no accounting for seasonality can get you fun mathematically true statements but not very meaningful ones

Hypothetically, what if Disney decided it would make more money to have T’Challa pass the torch to Howard the Duck? Can’t prove it wouldn’t have happened, checkmate

The PIB wed drop is very heavily impacted as a kids film with last wknd the last dregs of holidays. 3day could go flat here. A2 weekend hold will also be much better than wed but we’ll have to wait and see how much — if it goes over 30 it’s a big point in favor of runtime crippling weekdays.

Dont Expect Too Much Butters Stotch GIFfrom Dont Expect Too Much GIFs

I am a man who knows when to admit defeat

Maybe I’ll play 27 after all

2.99

Da FUQ? All that avatar money went to the other holdovers instead

14.5M

Gotta take advantage of the mcu loonies here

I like how there’s finally a tv series doing good nums at the BO and it’s some crowdfunded Christian thing 😆

Shoulda had 80 days of sneaks Smh

Pretty natural that an opener would have a higher range than wk3+ holdovers — even if a lot of the leverage on anticipating them well has been diminished. Ideally the comparison would be to variance of openers pre-pandemic but there’s a huge player pool difference that mucks it up.

Yeah if these stick it will make wed/mon for other stuff a lot more interesting