Cooper Legion

Sacto geomean up to 24.4 and it’s still disadvantaged (~1.5 days vs 2). Overindexing there I think though the national start adjusted for start times suggests ~24.5M from eyeballing/napkinning (detailed post in few hrs).

FWIW I have 5th weekend over OW. May have to try to compile some historical stats on that.

Happy Holidays

I mean, presumably I will lose more 2022 trophies under this variant than anybody. Because, well, y’know 😘

Hope never dies

Will a ~24 hr check be possible from you or @ZackM? We can extrapolate around it okay enough but would be great to have on hand directly.

Whatever It Takes Captain America GIFfrom Whatever It Takes GIFs

As one challenger wanes, another rises from the ashes like a phoenix…

This is violence

BP was ~2x the start of A2 (with regional/chain variation naturally). So if we luck in to QM starting at perfect √2 between them — so that QM 24hr=√2 A2 24hr and BP2 24h=√2 QM 24h — then I am basically on geomean set and forget between those two until something t-10 or whatever when maybe reactions will be available and something interesting may have happened in one direction or another.

Size of d1 often plays a huge role in terms of final/D1 ratio, even in excess of genre/demo/sequel considerations -- those things are important too of course, but they play into size of d1 itself so they don't have *that* powerful an affect once you condition on that. Reception can, but it’s unknown in advance. Thor start basically is too big. BP2 is probably single best comp if I had to pick one at gunpoint, especially now that AM&tw2 start looks like it may be 70% if bp2 rather than say 40%, but if you're coming to one movie which it's doing ~70% of it's often useful to have another which it's doing like 1/.7=140% of to balance out, as long as it's pattern from d1 wasn't too dissimilar from reasonable genre/franchise dynamics. In this case that is avatar 2, which had a very CBM typical final th/D1 Th for it's D1 Th size despite legging much better after.

Let's kill it 3 times

Look at the year 😛

1 Billie 2022 movie???

Japan switched to mostly opening Fri instead of opening Sat a decade or so ago so the opening weekend figs for it are fss but the BO weekend is still just satSun so the Japan component of reported 2nd 3rd 4th etc OS weekend is just the 2day.

Yeah the evening start is annoying but it’ll settle down in a few days. I think most people are assuming the diff is small — after all the biggest sale spurt is in the first few hours, so on the east coast it might be somewhat impaired but for mountain/pacific the most important part happened basically unimpeded. But like, if you adjust by 20% then 21.25 goes to 25.5, so…

Initial indications are that start may settle around 3 which is literally off of (my) chart. Would correspond to expected final ~22.666, ratio 7.55. Let’s see how actual 24 hr counts and MTCs come in though (if we get them)

This would be accurate for same numbers of hours each so real value even higher 😌

When I expected mid high teens was thinking 6.5x but if we do hit low mid 20 that suggests more fan appeal after all, would probably go down to 5.5-6

Sales look over 20 easy, maybe 25 even. Then you're at like 130-160. That does seem too high though so just applying some warranted general caution is how you get down to 110-120

Bat and TGM look to be in the right final ballpark, and TGM should have a closer final/D1. What I dislike about both is the EA -- not intractable, but a hassle

Already spectacular in Sacto. A2 will be one of the better comps though (atm I mostly suggest people use geomean of A2 and BP2 but we’ll see how big the start ends up), did you do a few hour check for that one @Porthos?

The Last Wish visual novel isn’t out yet