Cooper Legion

I’ve got it high 20s but so far I’ve been like 15% low on avatar holdover wknds on avg so 🤷‍♂️

Strongly in favor, important to apply this retroactively too

And that’s how you top 2 nearly half of the year’s derbies 😎

Might as well cross post I guess: Initial targets: Would like to see 16+ previews, so about evenly between BP and SC. Approx 24 hr th:final th for recent movies: BW 1.1:13.2, 12x, 27 days (mtc varying curfews, PA, missing some Canada) SC .82:9.1*, 11x, 17 days (*storm adjusted est, delta) Et 1.33:9.5, 7.1x, 24 days (horrible reception) BPWF 4.1:28, 6.8x, 40 days A2 2:17, 8.5x, 24 days Essentially no correlation with days to ratio. Reasonable relationship between start and ratio which gives the following table: Th final Expected start Ratio 12 1.21 9.917355372 13 1.35 9.62962963 14 1.49 9.395973154 15 1.64 9.146341463 16 1.8 8.888888889 17 1.96 8.673469388 18 2.13 8.450704225 19 2.3 8.260869565 20 2.485 8.048289738 21 2.67 7.865168539 So I will be looking for ~1.8M start — or ~90% A2, 44% BP2, 2.2x SC You can use expected ratio vs actual ratio for any of those 5 comps to adjust the raw 24hr comp nums

Initial targets: Would like to see 16+ previews, so about evenly between BP and SC. Approx 24 hr th:final th for recent movies: BW 1.1:13.2, 12x, 27 days (mtc varying curfews, PA, missing some Canada) SC .82:9.1*, 11x, 17 days (*storm adjusted est, delta) Et 1.33:9.5, 7.1x, 24 days (horrible reception) BPWF 4.1:28, 6.8x, 40 days A2 2:17, 8.5x, 24 days Essentially no correlation with days to ratio. Reasonable relationship between start and ratio (especially excluding BW which was inflated by mtc capacity stuff and et deflated by reception): Giving: final=start+added=start+start*added/start~=s+s(9.43-1.815 log_2 (s)) which gives the following table: Th final Expected start Ratio 12 1.21 9.917355372 13 1.35 9.62962963 14 1.49 9.395973154 15 1.64 9.146341463 16 1.8 8.888888889 17 1.96 8.673469388 18 2.13 8.450704225 19 2.3 8.260869565 20 2.485 8.048289738 21 2.67 7.865168539 So I will be looking for ~1.8M start — or ~90% A2, 44% BP2, 2.2x SC

The uhhh… the 24 hour, numbers? No

I think it’s pretty safe to say that the main deadline won’t be changing. Seems like you’d be on board for an optional early deadline for those who wanted to partake though? I think it’s pretty safe to say that the main scoring won’t be changing. We can keep it as an additional stat on the player run sheet but if there’s interest from others in seeing it could be worth showing officially as well.

4.45 would be nearly the same tues/tues drop as RO and worse than NWH. But basically the rule for closely analyzing Tuesdays is — don’t

And wed/wed aside from M3G. Can you get California/natl @charlie Jatinder? Some weather impact plausible

For comparison (2017 Tuesdays not a perfect fit for 2023 Tuesdays): https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2017/01/10

I mean these all suck (well, M3G is alright), but Tuesday doesn’t matter much, sometimes you get larger or smaller bumps for reasons that are difficult to predict in advance or satisfying explain in hindsight. Wed/mon will be the key as always.

Poking around the beta some more — looks pretty cool. Probably more thoughts later. One that immediately came to mind is that I like displaying average as it’s own row, but it would also be cool to see a row that shows how it would have done that week to submit the average on each of the 10 movies. Not sure how you’d name that vs the current avg 😛

While we’re here, is there an easy way to get the only 2021 week classified under the 2022 season instead? I basically consider those the “first year back” but right now you have to remember that one of the weeks was technically 2021 and go manually account for it. Or maybe just “all time” getting a drop down menu for “all time” vs “pre-covid” vs “after return.” 2 eras with a big gap I imagine people would eventually like to see them separated without having to manually break out the different years and combine them.

I also find it somewhat strange how often there will be a week when there are like 3 movies that most people really care about the performance of (say, avatar, M3GAN, and puss) because they’re still making good money, but somebody can get like 95% on all 3 and then score poorly because they put 450k each for a pair of about to get dropped smallballs that actually did 380 and 520 or whatever. Basically the volatility of the low grosses tends to make them the most important to winning even as they are the least cared about or interesting to continue spending lots of time thinking about from a normal BO POV. I would love a new scoring rule (or, to be less controversial, a scoring view toggle/extra column 😛 ) that gave more weight to the higher grossing movies on the weekend rather than just 10% for all 10. There are a lot of different options here though — purely weighting by gross might make medium & small ones matter too little, especially on mega OWs. Log weighting gets funky because grosses can go <1M and then end up with negative logs. Could weight based on the log of the smallest discrete input, 10k. So for a simple example with 3 movies instead of 10, if one movie made 320k, one made 2.56M, and one made 40.96M then: log 32 =5 log 256=8 log 4096=12 So the weights would be: 320k 20% (5/(5+8+12)) 2.56M 32% (8/25) 40.96M 48% (12/25) as compared to current uniform weighting where they’d each matter for 33.3% of the score or linear weighting it’d be: 320k 0.73% (32/(32+256+4096)) 2.56M 5.84% 40.96M 93.43% Edit: I added a tab to show how it would have changed things last week (though the answer is amusingly “not much” since it was a relatively evenly distributed week). Edit 2: multiplying by 100 before log to eliminate possibility of negatives compressed it a bit too much in practice. I think weighting by the square root is best I’ve found so far and maybe best simple one. To use the same example from above: .32^.5~=.56, 2.56^.5=1.6, 40.96^.5=6.4 weights of 320k 6.6% 2.56M 18.7% 40.96M 74.7% Also added a tab with this: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BMEPoyDk7TN25-3VIR_jGTOPZlYulc6H6VbkXYDXkp0/edit Edit 3: Squareroot gives over 50% to avatar on its OW is maybe undesirable. Cuberoot seems like a nice balance.

I don’t think predicting earlier takes less skill — if anything I suspect it takes *more* skill. But it does take different skills, and it’s easy to see how people who are enjoying the traditional deadline might not like the change. One thing which could be interesting is a simple deadline filter when viewing results. So e.g. someone could set it to midnight and see scores based on what predictions had been submitted 6 hrs before the final deadline. Or set to Wednesday noon and see scores based on what had been submitted by super early. One issue there however is that there’s no longer a single temporal point of coordination for people to compare their performance against each other. Ultimately what I’d probably go for if we do anything in terms of the earlier prediction space is 2 deadlines — the current one+an early one (maybe midnight wed). People who prefer the classic deadline could only pay attention to that, people who like the skills involved in earlier could focus more on there, and people who are real diehards ([Antihero chorus here]) could try to refine numbers for both but wouldn’t have any incentive to make like 20 submissions per week as beliefs constantly evolved (technically the continuous filter on submission time kind of encourages this…)

Not at all no, even if it happens those are totally orthogonal

Yes. ”people” are literally in the last few pages with us 😛

RO was 44% I wouldn’t even be surprised if this cleared 50

Guilty

You won: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BMEPoyDk7TN25-3VIR_jGTOPZlYulc6H6VbkXYDXkp0/edit

It is a horror movie after all

I mean, showman was the same dynamic — stunning concurrently with Jumanji and tlj. Showman is just the more intense version (smaller open and total, even wilder legs).

Probably keep the sheet going until 24th and then call it. Should be a bit under 10M at that point is my guess. This weekend going -35 vs -50 could be pretty critical.

Everybody serious knows that phase 4 showed some weakness in reception and BO. Not the sky falling, just some cracks starting to show. Phase 5 will be very important to either set a recovery narrative or solidify post infinity saga decline, and this movie is the start of that (featuring the saga villain movie intro no less). It’s going to be pretty important and I’m genuinely unsure which way it’ll go so we’ll just have to find out in 5 weeks.

… not even remotely close? This could do awesome and it’ll still be dead to gotg in under 10 days.